First of all, it is not the home of wheat at present, but the rising pace of wheat has not stopped or even intensified. The price of wheat keeps rising, and the current mainstream price has risen to 1.39~ 1.47 yuan/kg, which is 0. 15 yuan/kg higher than the same period last year. Why does the price of wheat rise frequently? Many people have noticed a situation: this year's wheat harvest was hit by rain, and the quality of wheat was divided. Speaking of this, a familiar scene appeared: the rain in North China during the autumn harvest this year also caused the quality differentiation of corn. So, can this year's corn replicate the market of wheat?

I. Similarities

1, mass differentiation

In the matter of quality differentiation, wheat and corn are strikingly similar. At the beginning of the wheat harvest, rainfall in Hubei and other places caused the quality of wheat to decline, and the market sentiment began to rise, which made the wheat show a high opening situation. This is quite similar to corn. After the quality differentiation of corn in North China, the grass-roots reluctance to sell became stronger, the market sentiment concentrated in the northeast producing areas, and the price of corn rose frequently. At present, the quotations of enterprises in Shandong have broken through the 1.5 yuan/kg mark.

2. The volume dropped.

With the continuous listing of wheat and the increase of grain supply in the market, the previous mood of "grabbing wheat" began to cool down and become more rational. On the one hand, the hot weather and rainy wheat storage are not easy, so the reluctance to sell is weak; On the other hand, the profits of flour enterprises are reduced, and the demand is weakened, so the procurement has also become rational. And the quantity has dropped, which is also what corn needs to be vigilant. As the weather changes, some corn may face the problem of difficult storage, which will increase the supply of grain sources in the market. Once the quantity is concentrated, maybe corn will fall back like wheat. Moreover, for corn, the delay in autumn harvest leads to a shorter time to sell grain before the year, so the selling pressure before the year is not small.

However, it is precisely because of quality differentiation that high-quality wheat is scarce, which has also become an important reason for the late surge of wheat. So will corn also replicate this trend?

Second, the differences

The market is rapidly changing under the influence of multiple factors. Even if the beginning is similar and the process is the same, it is not certain that the outcome will be the same. Specifically, there are several differences between corn and wheat:

The first is different demand support. In addition to the quality differentiation, another important reason for the surge in wheat is consumption support. On the one hand, the spread of the epidemic has intensified residents' purchase of daily necessities, which has led to a surge in flour consumption, which has led to an increase in flour prices and a rise in wheat prices; On the other hand, although the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, the purchase of wheat by feed enterprises has not been relaxed because of the rising price of corn. Therefore, it has also become a hard demand to support the rise of wheat prices. On the other hand, the demand for deep processing of corn is relatively stable, but the feed is very variable and faces the risk of being replaced at any time, so the overall demand power is not as strong as that of wheat.

The second is policy regulation. Another reason for the increase in wheat is the decline in policy input. Since the auction resumed in 10, only10 million tons of wheat have been put in, and most of them are old wheat, which makes the supply of flour mills face shortage. Coupled with the delay of winter sowing of wheat, the market is worried about the situation of wheat next year, so the bullish sentiment towards wheat has increased. As for corn, policy regulation is mainly aimed at feed demand. This year, the number of imported corn is high and other cereals are relatively sufficient, so policy regulation is relatively easy.

The third is the support of international food prices. In the first half of the year, the international wheat price was relatively peaceful, and major producing countries also sent out signals to increase production, and said that they would increase wheat exports to ease the global wheat supply. However, in the second half of the year, the painting style changed suddenly, many countries faced with production cuts, and the international wheat price surged, which is still on the rise. The difference is that with the US supply and demand report, the global corn production and inventory have increased, thus alleviating some of the pressure on corn. However, in view of the high fertilizer price, the global willingness to plant corn is obviously reduced, which may affect the trend of corn next year.

Third, the conclusion

On the whole, although the overall gap between production and demand of corn still exists, its specific supporting force is not strong, and the biggest demand for feeding fluctuates greatly due to the loss of aquaculture. Although the price of pigs has risen sharply recently, on the one hand, the high production capacity is unsustainable, and on the other hand, the feed price has risen frequently, which has increased the cost of breeding. In addition, the pig cycle is far from over, so the overall support for corn is limited.

On the other hand, policy control is still very strong. Because wheat is a food ration, and it has played a significant role in substitution this year, with the tight supply of wheat in the world, in order to avoid the competition between humans and animals for food, the regulation of wheat is relatively loose. But corn is different, especially this year when it is at a high level. Therefore, it is difficult for corn to copy the trend of wheat under the premise of ensuring stable supply and price. Although corn also has strong support at the bottom, we should not expect too much, so we should be wary of falling back.