Factors affecting soybean meal price changes
1. Analysis of soybean meal supply factors
The production and consumption of soybean meal, international market and domestic market conditions have been introduced. These Factors are all important factors affecting soybean meal prices. The supply of soybean meal mainly consists of three parts: a. Early inventory, which is an important part of the total production. The early inventory reflects the tightness of supply. If the supply is short, the price will increase, and if the supply is sufficient, the price will decrease. b. Current production volume. The current output of soybean meal is a variable, which is subject to factors such as soybean supply, soybean crushing revenue, and production costs. c. Import volume of soybean meal. Our country is about to join the WTO, and the soybean meal market is becoming more and more internationalized. In recent years, our country has become an importing country of soybean meal, and the international market has an increasing impact on the domestic soybean meal market. Therefore, changes in the international market, international price levels, import policies and import volumes should be understood and grasped as promptly as possible. The United States is the main exporter of soybean meal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases the U.S. Export Sales Reports every Thursday, which contains U.S. soybean meal export data, including U.S. export data to China, which has important reference value.
When analyzing the supply and demand of soybean meal, special attention should be paid to the short storage time. In the south, the storage time of soybean meal is generally 3 to 4 months, while in the north it can be stored for about 8 months. As a result, soybean meal turns around quickly in the spot market, and traders hope to complete transactions in the short term. Once the storage time is too long, the quality of soybean meal changes, and the manufacturer can only sell it at a reduced price. This characteristic of soybean meal storage determines that once centralized supply occurs, the regional price of soybean meal will immediately fall. For example, the concentrated arrival of imported soybean meal will affect the supply and demand relationship in the areas surrounding the import port, causing the price of soybean meal to fall. The short storage time of soybean meal not only promotes the market flow of soybean meal, but also causes frequent price fluctuations of soybean meal.
In addition, other factors affecting supply include: domestic soybean processing capacity, the relative production costs of substitutes (such as other cakes, corn, etc.).
2. Analysis of soybean meal demand factors.
Soybean meal demand usually consists of three parts: domestic consumption, export volume and ending commodity balance. a. Domestic consumption. It is not a fixed constant, but changes under the influence of many factors. The main factors affecting the domestic consumption of soybean meal include: the development of the domestic feed industry, changes in consumer purchasing power, population growth and structural changes, government policies to encourage the development of the feed industry, etc. b. Export volume. When output is constant, an increase in exports will reduce supply in the domestic market; conversely, a decrease in exports will increase domestic supply. At present, my country's soybean meal production cannot meet domestic demand, so there is no export of soybean meal. c. Commodity balance at the end of the period. If inventories increase at the end of the year, it means that the supply of goods is greater than the demand for that year, and futures prices may fall; otherwise, they will rise. Due to the short storage time of soybean meal, the ending inventory data has little impact on the price of soybean meal.
The demand for soybean meal should also take into account the changes in supply and demand in the international market, especially the changes in demand in East and Southeast Asian countries. Consumers in Asian countries eat more poultry and pork, and the breeding and feed industries are relatively developed. Soybean meal is in high demand. The economic prosperity of Asian countries has a greater impact on the demand for soybean meal. When the economy is in recession, imports from Asia will be small; when the economy recovers and grows, imports of soybean meal will increase.
Other factors that affect demand include: consumer purchasing power, consumer preferences, supply and demand of substitutes, population changes, changes in commodity structure and other non-price factors.