Editor/Yang Jie

Lin Li, an e-cigarette consumer, still remembers that on Friday, March 1 1, she was on the crowded subway after work and saw the news released by the new regulations on e-cigarettes: after May 1, the taste of e-cigarettes is forbidden to display other scents except tobacco.

The news came as a bolt from the blue. Lin Li almost screamed on the subway. For her, tea-flavored or fruity e-cigarettes are the source of happiness at work. After working for more than two years, smoking a My Sweetie cigarette in the afternoon and evening when she is tired is her most pleasant enjoyment. However, this means that after more than a month, her happiness will no longer exist.

Lin Li's first reaction was to hoard goods. However, she learned in York E-cigarette store that a few days before the new regulations were introduced, the store began to raise prices, and her favorite flavors such as cold tea and rose morning dew rose from 99 yuan to 120 yuan. At that time, the reason given by the clerk was that some WeChat merchants sold some flavored cigarettes at high prices, so York took the initiative to raise prices.

"According to my consumption of a cigarette bomb for two days, even if I spend 5,000 yuan to stock up, I can only buy 50 boxes at the current price, which is not enough for half a year." Lin Li said.

According to the observation of Caijing Tianxia Weekly, in several York specialty stores and e-cigarette collection stores in Tongzhou District, most York e-cigarettes have risen to 1 10 yuan, and some tastes have risen to 120 yuan. Some stores haven't raised prices yet, and they are still a box of 99 yuan, but they are seriously out of stock, and there are only the last box of many flavors left; Some even have less than a box, only two cigarette bombs, and the owner said that they can be sold with other flavors of cigarette bombs.

Shen Yi, who runs a York lettering shop in the underground mall of Guo Mao, said that he was selling it not long ago, but as soon as the new regulations were announced, the prices of most flavors of e-cigarettes rose to 120 yuan. "There is no way, so we have to raise prices. It used to sell more than 30 thousand and hundreds of boxes a day. This (inventory) will not last for a few days, and it will be out of stock next month. "

In another large electronic cigarette collection store, the owner Cheng Zhi also told Caijing Tianxia that the price of the best-selling essence in York has not increased yet, but the supply is running out. "You can only buy one or two boxes at this price, and you can't hoard too much."

Cheng Zhi explained that a few days before the introduction of the new regulations, agents of York specialty stores and collective stores had started to raise prices because the relationship between supply and demand had changed. Because most factories producing e-cigarettes are in Shenzhen, production and logistics are difficult due to the epidemic situation.

Dramatically, however, the official WeChat account of York responded that the official decision to raise the price was a rumor, and if the store raised the price, consumers could give feedback to York.

"In fact, feedback is useless. Collective stores like ours all get their goods from provincial agents or factories. Everyone raises prices according to the current purchase and sale situation, and York is not binding. " Cheng Zhi said.

Shen Yi also said that the original price of York 99 yuan is only an official guide price, and retailers have the right to adjust it. "The new regulations caught everyone off guard. When it is not properly resolved, the price adjustment penalty is irrelevant and nobody cares. "

In order to harvest the last wave of consumers, stores have adjusted their prices. However, in Shen Yi's view, "now it is more like a collective' drinking poison to quench thirst'".

According to the new regulations, retail stores are not allowed to specialize in e-cigarette products. For collective stores, as long as they are qualified to sell, they can still place orders on the unified platform managed by the state and continue to sell e-cigarettes, but it will inevitably lose some consumers.

A store owner told Caijing Tianxia that many e-cigarette shops closed down because of the high density and fierce competition. There were more than a dozen shops in Nanluoguxiang, Beijing, where tourists were most concentrated before, but now there are none. A few months ago, there was an e-cigarette collection store opposite her store, but in February this year, this store has closed down. According to Caijing Tianxia Weekly, the words "York, YOOZ, Shui Ye, Shafen, VTV and Lemei Supply Center" on the glass door of the store have not been removed, but the goods in the store have been emptied and rental information has been posted.

(Photo: Financial World Weekly/Photo)

The whole chain of e-cigarettes "hurts"

On March 17, the final feedback of the national standard of E-cigarette (the second draft for comments) was officially closed. This means that the national standard for e-cigarettes has entered a new stage.

A week ago, on March 1 1, the State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau publicly solicited opinions on the national standard for electronic cigarettes (the second draft for comments), and at the same time issued an announcement on the Measures for the Administration of Electronic Cigarettes, saying that it would be formally implemented on May 1 2022.

The Administrative Measures stipulates the production, quality management, sales management, import and export trade, supervision and inspection of domestic electronic cigarettes. There are 45 articles. Compared with the Administrative Measures for Electronic Cigarettes (Draft for Comment) issued on February 2, 20021,the full text has 9 new contents, 4 deleted contents and 27 adjusted expressions.

Among them, restricting franchise production and sales and "smoke smell" can be described as a "heavy blow" to the e-cigarette industry.

According to Article 8 of the Administrative Measures, the e-cigarette market will implement a very strict licensing system. Enterprises related to e-cigarette products, such as production, processing and brand holding, must be examined and approved by the tobacco monopoly administrative department of the State Council, obtain a tobacco monopoly production enterprise license, and be approved and registered by the market supervision and management department. Article 26, on the other hand, indicates that it is forbidden to sell flavored electronic cigarettes except cigarette essence and electronic cigarettes that can add atomized substances by themselves.

Chen Zhong, an e-cigarette industry observer, said that the official promulgation of the Administrative Measures means that the dealer channels are basically not working, and major brands in the country, provinces and cities cannot be wholesale, and dealers will have to transform, open stores or become brand service providers. The forbidden fruit flavor is basically a "fresh start" for brands and shopkeepers.

"In the past, 70%-80% of brand shipments in the industry were fruity. If the replacement is mainly tobacco essence, it is not easy to re-cultivate users' habits. And it is foreseeable that many stores will close down because they can't make ends meet. In the past, it was possible for a store's revenue to reach 6.5438+10,000 yuan. If you don't sell fruit, it may be reduced to only 6.5438+10,000 yuan, which will inevitably not support operating costs such as labor and rent. " Chen Zhong said.

Banning the sale of flavored e-cigarettes can be said to cut off the "financial road" of e-cigarette retailers.

E-cigarette products have many flavors, among which fruit flavor is the most popular among consumers and the best-selling product in retail stores. E-cigarettes are often sold under the banner of "replacing cigarettes", and many users have also recognized this concept. For them, fruity e-cigarettes are less irritating, avoiding the smell of cigarettes and more likely to enhance the social goodwill of smokers. For manufacturers, different tastes are also conducive to avoiding product homogeneity, and positioning consumers according to the tastes of different brands of products.

It is understood that as early as last autumn and winter, York had already laid out a series of smoky "Yixiyun" and "Xiaojinzhi" cigarettes in advance. "Yixiyun" series simulates different cigarette flavors, such as mint rhyme, blueberry rhyme, citrus rhyme tobacco and so on. However, the "Xiaojinzhi" series adopts atomized bomb and original extraction stick, the atomized bomb provides a sense of coolness, and the original extraction stick provides four kinds of cigarettes: original flavor, mint, coffee and tea.

(Photo: York's "One Evening Cloud" series "Financial World" Weekly/a collection store for the picture)

But for most consumers of e-cigarettes, tobacco is not as good as e-cigarettes. The owner of a large electronic cigarette collection store in Beijing told Caijing Tianxia Weekly that the sales of cigarettes in the store were far from so good, and there were few purchases. "Moreover, the nicotine and perfume content of most cigarette-flavored electronic cigarettes does not meet the new regulations, and it will inevitably be further adjusted in the future."

The data show that as early as last year165438+1October 30th, when the national standard for electronic cigarettes was first solicited, it was stipulated that the nicotine concentration in aerosol should not be higher than 20mg/g, that is, 2%. At present, the nicotine concentration of most fruit-flavored electronic cigarettes in York is 3%, and the nicotine content of tobacco reaches 5%.

It is worth mentioning that Orfila Science and Technology, the parent company of York, a leading domestic e-cigarette, announced the fourth quarter and annual financial report of 20021on the same day as the second draft of the e-cigarette opinion and announcement. The financial report shows that Orfila Science and Technology achieved double growth in revenue and net profit in the fourth quarter of 2002/KLOC-0. Last year, the company's revenue was 852 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of123.1%; The net profit was 2.028 billion yuan, compared with a net loss of 65.438+0.28 billion yuan in the previous year.

It is reported that Shenzhen Orfila Technology Co., Ltd. was established on 20 18, mainly engaged in the research, development, design and sales of RELX York brand electronic atomized cigarettes, and has been listed on Hurun's global unicorn list for many times with its e-cigarette business in China. However, under the shock of the new regulations, most of the e-cigarette concept stocks ended with a foot vote, and the leading Orfila Technology was not spared.

On March 1 1 night, Orfila science and technology plunged by 43.35%, and finally closed at 1.49 USD/share, and even fell to the lowest point of the year 1. 16 USD/share the next day. Subsequently, affected by the rebound of China Stock Exchange, the stock price rose again. By the close of March 18, Orfila Science and Technology had closed at $2.39 per share, up by 16.75%, with a total market value of $3.742 billion. However, compared with the closing price of $29.54 per share at the beginning of 20021year, the total market value also evaporated by over $42 billion.

In this regard, Wang Ying, founder of Orfila Science and Technology, said in the earnings conference call, "The company supports the new national standard, and the new regulations clarify the direction of the company's future business development and eliminate the uncertainty of time and trading mode. We believe that the new standards and measures can significantly improve the awareness of adult smokers to reduce the harmful properties of products, and the restrictions on taste will not affect the core needs of millions of traditional smokers to reduce harm. "

Caijing Tianxia Weekly noted that in the Measures for the Administration of Electronic Cigarettes issued this time, it was also mentioned that the initial public offering and listing of electronic cigarette enterprises should be examined and approved by the tobacco monopoly administrative department of the State Council. This did not appear in the previous draft for comments.

Capital access management has become stricter, and e-cigarettes that once stood on the tuyere have also reached a crossroads.

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, said, "This has relatively little impact on listed e-cigarette companies, but for quasi-listed companies or companies with listing ideas, the compliance cost is further increased. Under such circumstances, the development of e-cigarette enterprises may face more uncertainty. "

In addition, Chen Zhong told Caijing Tianxia Weekly that the tightening of IPO supervision of e-cigarette enterprises has largely controlled the disorderly expansion of capital before, but it will inevitably be accompanied by "pain", such as the collapse of listed giants such as York and Seymour. "However, the market share of leading enterprises is very high. In the long run, after the supervision is stable, the valuation will naturally return or climb. "

According to the statistics of Prospective Research Institute, from August 20 18 to March 2022, a total of 1 1 regulatory policies were issued from the Notice on Prohibiting the Sale of Electronic Cigarettes to the Measures for the Administration of Electronic Cigarettes. Among them, the protection of minors has become a key factor in the revision and tightening of laws and regulations.

In recent years, due to the regulatory gap, the e-cigarette industry has developed in disorder, and some products have problems such as unclear nicotine content, unknown additive components, and cigarette oil leakage. In particular, some operators mislead consumers, induce minors to smoke, and infringe on their physical and mental health. Therefore, 202 1, 1 1, the policy is clear, and new tobacco products such as electronic cigarettes refer to it. "

Bo Meng, a lawyer of Beijing Shi Jing Law Firm, told Caijing Tianxia Weekly that in the management measures issued this time, "no sales outlets for e-cigarette products should be set up around ordinary primary and secondary schools, special education schools, secondary vocational schools and kindergartens" and "it is forbidden to sell e-cigarette products to minors; E-cigarette operators shall set up signs in a prominent position and shall not sell e-cigarettes to minors; For those who are difficult to distinguish whether they are minors, they should be required to show their identity documents. This is in line with the Law on the Protection of Minors, which can effectively prevent tobacco from spreading to minors and strengthen legal protection for minors.

"The prohibition of fruity e-cigarettes is largely to prevent smokers from becoming addicted to them. Fruity flavors are more attractive to minors than cigarette flavors." Many people in the industry stressed.

Shen Yi also pointed out to Caijing Tianxia that the second draft of the national standard for electronic cigarettes is obviously different from the first draft in terms of taste regulations. "When the first draft came out, there was a white list of flavor additives, and 12 1 flavor was drawn up, which allowed the production of some fruity products. In the second draft, the taste is reduced to 10 1, all fruit flavors, essential oils, etc. Have been eliminated. "

With the "E-cigarette Management Measures" coming to an end on May 1, the domestic e-cigarette industry will formally enter the era of strong supervision.

"The strict control of the new regulations on the e-cigarette market is bad news in the short term, but it is more conducive to the healthy development of the industry in the long run. Big waves are inevitable, but after the reshuffle of the whole industry, a number of compliant and innovative head enterprises will be screened out. " Wang Peng, an associate professor at Renmin University of China, said.

Ai Media Consulting Report shows that the domestic market scale of e-cigarette industry in China continues to grow, and it is estimated that the growth rate will be 76.0% in 2022. The scale of the export market continues to grow, and the growth rate is expected to be 63.4% in 2022. In 20021year, China's e-cigarette industry directly and indirectly led to about 5.5 million jobs. Ai Media Consulting analysts believe that it is expected that the e-cigarette industry will bring certain promotion significance to domestic economic and social benefits when the domestic e-cigarette regulatory policies are gradually improved in the future.

In this regard, Chen Zhong also pointed out that under the current supervision, the e-cigarette industry will usher in changes in the whole process of production, circulation and consumption. The establishment of the national trading management platform will make the whole process of e-cigarette trading more controllable, and every link can be traced back, which will also solve the problem of counterfeit and shoddy products from the source.

Previously, as early as the end of 20 19 10, the State Administration of Markets and the State Tobacco Monopoly Bureau jointly issued the Notice on Further Protecting Minors from E-cigarettes, demanding that e-cigarettes be banned online.

After the online channel was banned, a large number of e-cigarette brands began to turn to offline stores. The expansion competition of offline stores was once hot.

York will focus on offline new retail in 2020, and plans to invest 600 million yuan in the next three years to open 1 10,000 specialty stores. Bode E-cigarette also launched the strategy of "Thousands of Cities and Thousands of Stores", indicating that it will give 300 million yuan to subsidize offline franchise stores, and promised that "the subsidy will be in place within 7 working days". At that time, franchise stores were exempted from joining fees, and brand subsidies for store decoration, gift subsidies and promotional materials became the "standard action" for offline stores.

In this "make quick money" atmosphere, a large number of e-cigarette retail stores are also blooming everywhere. But now, with the slowdown of the brand "staking" and the continuous strengthening of supervision, the enthusiasm of the market is gradually dissipating, replaced by worries and doubts about the future.

"In the remaining 40 days or so, most enterprises don't have enough time to switch, and stores can only passively deliver or store goods. However, after the whole market is standardized, the leading effect will be obvious, and SMEs will be even more sad. However, any industry is basically large and medium-sized companies providing better services, and it is difficult for brands without strength to go on, especially during this year's shock period. " Chen Zhong said.

At present, no one knows how many consumers will be lost and how many shops will close down. An employee in Cheng Zhi's shop said, "If it really doesn't work, do it somewhere else."

Lin Li is still on the way to "stock up". She looked for specialty stores and collection stores one by one to see which one didn't raise prices. She hopes to buy as many fruity electronic cigarettes as possible at a low price. "Although the taste of tobacco is not unacceptable, the taste of fruit is out of print after all, and it is not too much now."

(At the request of the interviewee, Lin Li, Shen Yi and Cheng Zhi are all pseudonyms. )