One is because of two major events throughout 2010: the Shanghai World Expo will end in November, Guangzhou Asian Games will be held in November. The former means that the demand for the World Expo disappeared, the latter means that the preparation is at the end. Usually 9 to October sugar consumption are not enough, in 2010 September but the sale of sugar 480,000 tons, 9 to October also auction reserve sugar 450,000 tons, a total of up to 930,000 tons, has been higher than usual. Secondly, Guilin Sugar Fair will re-estimate the production of the new season. At that time will realize the market on the production of speculation, that is, cash positive. Third, because sugar prices experienced a sharp rise in futures turnover volume, doubling the change of hands, prices rose sharply, and now the turnover decline, the change of hands back down, short-term upward momentum weakened. Others such as sugar and cane sugar spread further narrowed, Liu Kun spread expanded to 200 yuan / ton and then back to within 100 yuan / ton, ICE raw sugar commercial net short position is much higher than the commercial net long position, internal and external sugar price ratio fell to 240 and then rebounded, sugar futures and near-month contract spreads when the positive and negative aspects of the sugar upward momentum are suggestive of signs of weakening. The fourth is that in November the southern cane sugar producers will start production one after another. Just a few aspects need to pay close attention to: First, the weather changes, cold weather is expected to continue to 12 ~ January, whether it will cause sugar cane frost to be early to pay attention to; second is the policy changes, the state price control is inevitable, monetary and non-monetary means will be implemented; third is the short-term attention to the Guilin Sugar Conference estimated production changes, although the estimated production is expected to be below 12.5 million tons, but also to pay attention to the estimated level of production is too high to appear; Fourth, the sugar near-month and spot offer is much higher than the main contract, such as 1011 and 1101 contract spread is as high as 600 yuan / ton, too much higher than in previous years. If the output is indeed a small increase in production, not more than 12.5 million tons, the south of the sugar enterprises large-scale start-up delayed, resulting in the end of November to the first half of December stage of supply tension pattern highlighted, may again trigger a new round of upward market. If the sugar price fall back in the first half of November, the sugar price may rise to 7,000 yuan / ton near; if the range is not deep then it may break through 7,000 yuan / ton. If there are other major positive factors, it may break through 7,500 yuan / ton. From the current conditions, it seems that sugar should not fall back too much, and the rise starting in late November is likely to break through 7000 yuan / ton. Original: /2010/1029/44064.html