Author: Squidward Tentacles
A sudden black swan incident seems to have pressed a slow release button in the first half of 2020. When everyone lives in a "lightning" way, Musk seems to be the only person on the electric planet who runs at a normal multiple.
Whether in China or California, Tesla has resumed production and even filed a lawsuit with the local government. Now Musk has spread the seeds of "anxiety" to Europe. Not only has the Berlin super factory broken ground on a large scale, but the fifth super factory has the trend of rising in Britain. ...
In China, the most anticipated thing for Tesla in 2020 must be the localization process of Model Y, which can be seen from the popularity of Tesla Giga Shanghai aerial video series on social media. Then the question comes: When will the "impatient" Musk let the domestic Model Y meet the Chinese people?
Here we dare to predict a specific time: the official delivery time of Model Y is the end of 2020! Even the price, we all think that the long battery life will be 370 thousand.
Don't rush to refute, please continue to look at our analysis:
The second phase of the project is expected to be "soon"
The latest aerial photography data at the end of May shows that the main building of Tesla Giga Shanghai factory building has basically taken shape and is about to enter the stage of full capping. This year, the second phase of the 65438+1October 7 project has been officially started for less than five months, and it has also experienced a long shutdown period.
Image from YouTube Jason Yang Channel
The above performance shows us the power of "China+Tesla Speed", but this is not the first time such a performance has been staged. Putting the time back to 20 19 and reviewing the domestic process of Model 3 may provide us with a reference to predict the mass production process of Model Y today.
Memorabilia of domestic process of Tesla Model 3:
65438+1starting from October 17,
The factory was completed at the end of May 2004.
65438+ 10 put into production,
165438+1made its first public appearance on October 7,
65438+February 3 1 First delivery
The scale of the second workshop for producing Model Y is much larger than that of the first workshop, but there is still a certain gap from the complete completion of the main building. It is conservatively estimated that it will take about a month, and it is expected that the construction effect of the first phase of the factory building at the end of May last year will be achieved by the end of June, which means that the progress is one month later than last year.
According to the mass production schedule of Model 3 (from the completion of the factory to its debut in 6 months), the official appearance of Model Y will be in 65438+February this year, and the official delivery will wait until the first quarter of next year, which is also in line with the speculation of many insiders.
It seems that we are going to lose the gamble. ...
Wait a minute! You may have overlooked one thing: Type Y is not Type 3. If everything had gone as expected in the past ten years, Tesla would not be Tesla now. ...
Unknown number -y
Recently, the delivery of American Model Y has changed again.
At the beginning of May, when Tesla fremont factory resumed work, Tesla official website showed that the delivery cycle of Model Y was 8- 12 weeks, but only two weeks later, this figure changed to 4-8 weeks, and the overall improvement was one month, which has become one of the few sources of happiness for many American quasi-electric car owners recently.
There are two reasons for the above situation: first, due to the recent severe economic environment, many orders have been cancelled, greatly reducing the production pressure; At the same time, Tesla updated the production line of Model Y during the shutdown.
How much does the update of production line improve the production efficiency of Model Y? This will be an important reason affecting the domestic progress of Model Y.
"y is better than 3 out of 3"
Dr. Munro, an American automobile expert, started the disassembly journey of Tesla Model Y on April 1. Disassembly experiments confirmed that Model Y and Model 3 were built on the same platform, and the utilization rate of the parts of the two cars reached 75%, but it was also found that many designs on Model Y were designed to improve efficiency.
The news that Tesla Model Y body-in-white turned to aluminum casting design once made many people particularly hit and excited. Musk also said: When we have large casting machines, the body will be reduced from 70 parts to 65,438+0 parts.
Musk advertises and Munro checks the curative effect.
Tesla did not say which 70 parts were combined into one part, but Dr. Munro did find many integrated aluminum castings during the disassembly process.
First of all, after removing the back seat and trunk lid of Model Y, a huge integrated cast aluminum structure came into view. "It looks big, but it is actually two parts." Munro pointed to the welded part, but even so, he said he liked the design very much.
The picture comes from Munro Munro disassembling the analysis room channel in bilibili.
Dr. Munro said that the integrated design here can directly fix the second row of seats without building additional fixing brackets, thus eliminating the process of making bracket molds.
The picture comes from Munro Munro disassembling the analysis room channel in bilibili.
There is a small storage box at the lower part of the Y-type and 3-type tail box cover. Model Y has made a more humanized adjustment to this storage box, and its practicability has been improved. This should be better understood after we get the real car of the domestic version of Model Y.
The picture comes from Munro Munro disassembling the analysis room channel in bilibili.
The Y-shaped storage box is contained in the above-mentioned integral cast aluminum. To show the contrast, Dr. Munro moved to the side of Model 3 and removed the storage box at the rear. The camera recorded an expression of disgust:
"I don't know how many parts are in the storage box of Model 3. It's really difficult to assemble ... there are about 80 parts. If all the fasteners are counted together, I think it will exceed 100, and there are 1 1 parts from the car body to the hub ... "
The picture comes from Munro Munro disassembling the analysis room channel in bilibili.
The result is 2: 100+, which at least proves that Musk's 1:70 is really not bragging.
The integral cast aluminum parts are not only at the rear of the car, but Dr. Munro also found that the floor structure of the entire cockpit of Model Y is also composed of a continuous casting.
The picture comes from Munro Munro disassembling the analysis room channel in bilibili.
Of course, this process is not without regrets. Dr. Munro named the storage box assembly bolts because they are not uniform, which means that it will "bring trouble" to industrial workers. In addition, the much-anticipated wire harness removal did not bring surprises as expected. Although the size of the wire is obviously thinner, "the harness is still so long (compared with Model 3)", and the cow of "100 meters" doesn't know when Musk will be round.
The picture comes from Munro Munro disassembling the analysis room channel in bilibili.
Undoubtedly, the larger-scale use of integral aluminum castings will liberate the production efficiency of Tesla Model Y. With the delivery of Model Y in the United States on a larger scale, the production line of fremont factory will be gradually improved, while the Shanghai super factory will skip the trial-and-error stage and directly enter the most efficient production stage, with the expected efficiency.
Earlier, it was reported that two large-scale integrated casting machines had arrived in Shanghai. They will be Tesla's weapons to sprint mass production and create surprises in the second half of this year, and they will also be an important card for us to win the gambling contract.
Confidence in China's efficiency
According to Electrek, the construction site of Tesla Berlin Super Project introduced large-scale working machinery and officially broke ground.
According to a drone video shot by JetFox, excavators, bulldozers and trucks are busy preparing for the new foundation. Judging from the effect of the video presentation, the scale of the factory is not smaller than that of the Shanghai Super Factory.
Musk has been working hard to get the first Model Y off the assembly line from the super factory in Berlin next July, so there is still a whole year and a month from today.
Imagine: Europe has the conditions of Shanghai? Does Germany have China's support?
In addition, the localization rate of domestic Tesla parts is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Affected by the American epidemic, the Shanghai Super Factory was forced to stop work in April this year due to insufficient supply of spare parts, which also made Tesla realize the significance of accelerating localization in an all-round way.
Tesla plans to increase the localization rate to 70%-80% in July this year, and complete 100% by the end of the year. This process coincides with the domestic Model Y mass production sprint, which minimizes the impact of drastic changes in the international market on Model Y mass production.
Europe needs one year and one month, and China is fully capable of erasing zero, using it for one year, then tightening it, and starting delivery at the end of this year.
Will rear-drive long-life model Y be the first choice?
Although we predict that the domestic Model Y will be officially delivered at the end of the year, most of them are more formal than practical. Most notably, which version will this first delivery model be, which will represent the main delivery model of model Y in advance.
Because it has a lot in common with Model 3, the second phase of the project also belongs to the expansion project of Shanghai Super Factory, so it is expected that Model Y will also be the first to launch the rear-wheel drive version, and it is likely to be dominated by the long-life rear-wheel drive version.
First of all, it is difficult to control the starting price of the upgraded version of Model Y's standard endurance rear-drive within 300,000 yuan like Model 3, and get state subsidies, so that the actual price of the upgraded version of Model Y's standard endurance rear-drive and the long endurance rear-drive version will not be as big as Model 3.
Secondly, Model Y equipped with heat pump air conditioner is called "the most energy-saving electric vehicle", and it will maintain the data similar to that of the same version of Model 3 in terms of battery life, so it is expected that the Model Y long-life rear-wheel drive version with a battery life of more than 650km will also be more favored by domestic consumers at this stage.
The last question, which everyone is most concerned about, is how much can domestic Model Y buy?
Let's do some interesting arithmetic problems:
The pre-sale price of Model 3 single-motor long-life version in the United States is $46,500, the price before domestic version subsidy is $366,550, and the "Tesla exchange rate" is 7.88.
Musk also mentioned in the PPT of last year's Model Y conference that the long-life Model Y of a single motor costs $47,000. If Model Y discontinued in the United States is produced in China, the final price may be $370,000 according to the above "Tesla exchange rate".
Of course, this figure is only a guess, and the actual selling price may be lower. What we are very much looking forward to is that Tesla will come up with the most sincere price as soon as possible after the mass production of Model Y, instead of reappearing after the listing. ...
The next thing to do is to wait for the moment when 65438+February 3 1 announces the results in 2020. I won't give up until the last second.
(End)