(a)Soybean oil supply

1, soybean supply: soybean oil as a downstream product of soybean processing, soybean supply of more or less directly determines the supply of soybean oil, under normal circumstances, the increase in soybean supply will inevitably lead to an increase in the supply of soybean oil. There are two main sources of soybeans, one is domestic soybeans and the other is imported soybeans.

(1) domestic soybean supply. China's northeastern and Huanghuai areas are the main producing areas of soybeans, the harvest season is generally in September-October each year, and the months after the harvest is a concentrated period of soybean supply. In recent years China's soybean production has remained at about 16 million tons, of which close to half of the soybean for pressing.

(2) international market supply. China is currently the world's largest importer of soybeans, in recent years China's annual imports of soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina are more than 20 million tons.

2, soybean oil production: soybean oil current production is a variable, it is subject to soybean supply, soybean crushing revenue, production costs and other factors. Generally speaking, in the case of other factors remain unchanged, there is a clear inverse relationship between soybean oil production and price, soybean oil production increases, the price is relatively low; soybean oil production decreases, the price is relatively high.

3, soybean oil import and export volume: with the rapid development of China's economy, people's living standards continue to improve, soybean oil consumption increased year by year, the number of its imports are also raised year by year, soybean oil imports of changes in the domestic price of soybean oil in the influence of the growing. 2006, with the abolition of quotas for imports of soybean oil, domestic and foreign soybean oil market will be integrated. In this way, the number of soybean oil imports on the domestic soybean oil prices will further enhance the impact.

4, soybean oil stocks: soybean oil stocks are an important part of the composition of the supply, the amount of stock reflects the tightness of supply. In most cases, the shortage of inventory prices rose, the inventory is abundant prices fell. Because soybean oil has the characteristics of not easy to long-term preservation, once soybean oil stocks increase, soybean oil prices tend to go down.

(ii)Soybean oil consumption

1, the domestic demand situation: China is a soybean oil consumption country. In recent years, the domestic consumption of soybean oil is growing at a high rate, maintaining an annual growth rate of more than 12%.

2, catering industry boom situation: at present, China's vegetable oil production and consumption ranked first in the world. In recent years, with the improvement of living standards of urban residents, the number of people dining out is increasing, the catering industry boom on the soybean oil demand is very obvious.

(C)Related commodities, alternative commodity prices

1, soybean prices: the high and low prices of soybeans have a direct impact on the cost of soybean oil production. In recent years, many of China's large-scale crushing enterprises to choose to import soybeans as processing raw materials, so that the number of imported soybean crushing far more than the number of domestic soybean crushing. Thus, the price of soybean oil is increasingly affected by the price of imported soybeans. Soybean crushing efficiency is one of the important factors in determining the supply of soybean oil. If the crushing efficiency of soybean processing plants has been low, then some manufacturers will stop production, thus reducing the market supply of soybean oil.

2, soybean oil and soybean meal than the price relationship: soybean oil is a downstream product of soybeans, each ton of soybeans can be squeezed out of about 0.18 tons of soybean oil and 0.8 tons of soybean meal. The prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are closely related. According to years of experience, in most cases when the price of soybean meal is high, the price of soybean oil will fall; soybean meal stagnation, soybean processing plants will reduce the operating rate, soybean oil production will be reduced, soybean oil prices tend to rise.

3, the price of soybean oil substitutes: soybean oil prices in addition to soybean and soybean meal prices have a high degree of correlation, canola oil, palm oil, peanut oil, cottonseed oil and other soybean oil substitutes for soybean oil prices also have a certain impact, if the soybean oil prices are too high, refineries or oil companies tend to use other vegetable oils to replace the soybean oil demand is reduced, contributing to the soybean oil prices back down.

(iv)Agriculture, trade and food policy

1, agricultural policy: the country's agricultural policy tends to affect the farmers on the choice of planting varieties. In recent years, the state through the adjustment of the relevant industrial policy to guide farmers to increase the soybean sowing area, thus directly increasing the production of domestic soybeans. 2004 May 1, after the implementation of the new vegetable oil standards, improve the quality of vegetable oil products and health and safety requirements, new peroxide value and solvent residue index test. These policies on soybean oil prices have constituted a certain impact.

2, import and export trade policy: from the situation in previous years, the national import and export trade policy changes for China's soybean oil import and export volume has a greater impact. For example: in 1994, the State Administration of Taxation on imports of soybean oil tariff rate adjustment, tariff rate from 20% down to 13%, while peanut oil, palm oil and other vegetable oil tariff rate also appeared to varying degrees, resulting in soybean oil and other vegetable oil imports, soybean oil, the supply of soybean oil increased rapidly.

3, food policy: in recent years, with the avian influenza, mad cow disease and foot-and-mouth disease occurred one after another, as well as taking into account the impact of genetically modified food on human health, more and more countries to implement a new food policy. These new food policies through the food, catering industry and thus affect the consumption of soybean oil demand.