Today, I will focus on talking to you about the market of pigs, corn, cattle and sheep, and the expected trend in the later period.
First, the price of pigs has gone up again.
After the pig price rose five times in a row a few days ago, the pig price dropped slightly. However, driven by various market and profit factors, the national pig price turned red again on February 18.
The market shows that the gains in Central China, East China and Northwest China are obvious, the gains in Northeast China and North China are partial, and the trend in Southwest China is weak.
Among them, the national 1 1 provincial and municipal pig prices rose, and the Anhui pig price rose by 2 cents per catty, with a price of 7.5-7.75 yuan/catty; Jiangsu rose 2 hairs, 7.5-7.9 yuan/kg; Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hubei, Henan, Shanxi, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Gansu and other places rose by 0.05-0. 15 yuan/kg. While the price of pigs increased in 1 1 provinces, there were also 8 provinces that declined slightly, but the overall trend was mainly upward. See attached table for details:
After the Spring Festival, the live pig market fluctuated weakly. The main reasons for the current rebound are:
First, the news of state purchasing and storage has greatly boosted the market. It is understood that the National Development and Reform Commission announced yesterday that it would start the storage and storage of 20,000 tons of reserve meat, which was also the first batch of storage and storage operations at the beginning of the year.
Second, the pig futures suddenly rose, with the pig 03 contract rising by 4.26 percentage points and the pig 05 contract rising by 2.28 percentage points.
Third, due to the low price of pigs, pig farmers are more willing to sell at high prices, and the number of pigs to be slaughtered is tight, which supports the price of pigs to some extent.
However, in my personal opinion, although the pig price has rebounded, it is difficult to sustain, because these rising factors are short-term logic, and combined with factors such as the current off-season of pork consumption and insufficient elimination of excess capacity, there is still an expectation that the pig price will fall back after the rebound. The time when the pig price really turns will appear in the third quarter.
Second, urea has risen sharply.
Spring ploughing is just around the corner. Due to the rising income of corn planting in recent years, land rent has soared. At present, the price of dry land in some areas of Heilongjiang has exceeded 6.5438+0.3 million yuan/hectare, and the price of means of production has also increased. It is understood that the price of chemical fertilizers, especially urea, has also started to rise sharply recently.
February 18 The latest urea market, with price increases in many areas: the ex-factory price of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong rose per ton 10 yuan, and the mainstream price was 2670-2720 yuan/ton;
In 20 yuan, Henan Province, the mainstream price of small and medium-sized particles is 2760-27 10 yuan/ton, and that of large particles is 2770 yuan/ton;
The average price of Hebei increased 15 yuan, and the mainstream price of small and medium-sized particles was 2760-2700 yuan/ton;
Starting from 20 yuan, the mainstream of small and medium-sized particles in Shanxi Province, the price is 2570-2690 yuan/ton;
The mainstream price of small and medium-sized particles in Shaanxi has risen sharply by 50 yuan, with a price of 2620-2670 yuan/ton;
The mainstream price of small and medium-sized particles in Guangxi rose 10 yuan, and the price was 2830-2850 yuan/ton;
Guangdong 20 yuan rose, with a price of 2870-2890 yuan/ton;
Liaoning 20 yuan rose, 2700-2720 yuan/ton.
At present, the price of urea has risen mainly because:
First, spring ploughing production has started, and farmers' friends are actively buying fertilizer. It is conceivable that the fertilizer market will be driven, and the price of fertilizer will rise in the peak season of fertilizer consumption.
Second, urea futures prices have risen for several days in recent days, which has a certain boosting effect on the modern market.
Third, the majority of farmers' friends are worried about the price increase in the later stage of chemical fertilizer, and they have the idea of buying early and reassuring early, which has led to the hot purchase and sale of chemical fertilizer market in recent days.
Although urea has risen recently, some insiders have warned that due to the large inventory and relatively sufficient supply in the fertilizer market since last autumn, although it is in the peak consumption season, the increase will not be too great.
Third, the corn rebound is imminent.
First, let's look at the current corn market:
The mainstream quotation of Shandong corn enterprises is between1.410-1.510 yuan, with an average quotation of 1.460 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang Suihua Yu Xiang Hailunji grain decreased by 0.5 points, with 30 moisture 1.035 yuan/kg; Suihua Xiangyu Lanxi County Library has a logistics storage area of 5%, 30 water 1.03 yuan/kg; Songling Grain Depot in Songyuan, Jilin: up 1.5 points, 20 moisture 1.2562 yuan/kg; Jilin fuel ethanol decreased by 0.5 point, 1.365 yuan/ton, 30 moisture 1.0504 yuan/kg.
After the Spring Festival, the trend of the corn market has been poor and has been weak. Compared with before the Spring Festival, the average ton has dropped by about 30-80 yuan, but it is about to enter the end of February, and the corn market has also ushered in some rebound opportunities. There are four kinds of logic:
First, the current market surplus is limited. It is understood that the sales progress of the main corn producing areas has exceeded 70%, and most of them are concentrated in some remote traffic areas. At the same time, there is not much grain left in the tide, and the pressure on corn sales at the grassroots level is gradually weakening.
Second, the starting factors of one-time grain storage in China. At present, the purchase price of grain depots that have been put into storage is higher than the local market price, which has a certain impact on farmers' grain sales. The idea that the more you sell, the less you can do.
Although there are not many places to start at present, it has far-reaching significance for boosting corn prices.
Third, people's expectations for the future market are high, especially in 2022, when corn production will be reduced, and there is still a certain gap in the corn market in 2023, which leads some traders and farmers to have high expectations for the market outlook and strong psychology of holding prices.
Fourth, the international situation is grim. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which lasted for one year, greatly affected the grain trade of two corn exporting countries, and the expected decline in international corn trade volume will also boost the international and domestic corn prices to some extent.
Personally, corn is expected to rebound in the short term, but with the arrival of a small sales peak caused by warmer weather, corn prices may fall. However, in the medium and long term, the corn market can be expected, especially after May, the corn market will rebound obviously, and there should be no suspense to return to the price of 1.5 yuan/kg.
Fourth, the market trend of cattle and sheep is tangled.
For aquaculture, in 2022, pigs are happy first and then worried. There was no loss in the first three quarters and no loss in the fourth quarter. For friends who breed cattle and sheep, it is still quite tangled, because most farmers don't make much money, and some friends with high breeding costs are losing money.
In a blink of an eye, two months have passed in 2023. The cattle and sheep market has not only failed to turn around, but the market has continued to slump. The price of cattle and sheep is lower than before the Spring Festival. Let's take a look at the current market:
Let's look at the market price of cattle first: fattening cattle in Chahar Right-wing Houqi, Wulanchabu City, Inner Mongolia 15.06 yuan/kg, Ningcheng County, Chifeng City 17 yuan/kg; Hebei Fattening Cattle 17- 18.8 yuan; Slaughtered beef cattle 17.3 yuan, fattened cattle 16.8- 18.6 yuan/kg in Wenshui county, western province; Liaoning fat cattle price 17- 18.8 yuan/kg, Yixian 17.5 yuan/kg; Yitong Manchu Autonomous County, Siping City, Jilin Province 17.22 yuan/kg, Dongfeng County, Liaoyuan City 17.33 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang Daqing fat cattle 17.5 yuan, the average price of fattening cattle 17.3 yuan/kg.
Let's take a look at the market prices of sheep: Han mutton kebabs 13.5 yuan, fine-wool mutton kebabs 13.8 yuan, Xinmin sheep 14. 1 Yuan; Xingtai Dameiwei 13.5 yuan Jin; Luoyang goat male 17 yuan/kg; Henan Anyang ram 1 10 kg weight 1 1 yuan/kg; Sanmenxia fattening sheep 13.5 yuan/kg; Shandong bird's nest Han mutton kebab 13.6 yuan/kg, fine wool mutton kebab 13.5 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep 14.5 yuan/kg.
At present, the price of sheep and cattle is still at a low level. For farmers, if the cost is low, there will be some profits, and the enthusiasm of farmers will be damaged.
The reason: mainly due to the large amount of beef and mutton breeding and low consumption, it is difficult for the price of beef and mutton to increase greatly in the short term. It is expected that in the second half of the year, according to the forecast of cattle and sheep cycle, it is possible to usher in an inflection point.
After that, I want to explain that although the price of cattle and sheep is not high at present, the price of beef and mutton is still high, and the prices of agricultural and sideline products such as pork and chicken are still not low. According to the latest monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market is 20.97 yuan/kg, which is 1.9% higher than yesterday. Beef was 77.7 1 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from yesterday; Mutton 68.23 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from yesterday; Eggs 10.33 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from yesterday; White striped chicken 18.27 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from yesterday.
Dear friends, have the prices of pork, beef, mutton and eggs gone up? How much is a catty on the market now? Welcome to share it with everyone for the reference of friends all over the country.