In recent ten years, the price of rapeseed meal in China has fluctuated and increased, with the price running between 800-2800 yuan/ton. Since 20 10, the main operating range of domestic rapeseed meal price is 2000-2400 yuan/ton. In recent two years, the purchase price of rapeseed meal is the main influencing factor in China, and the rise in raw material prices has raised the bottom price of rapeseed meal in China.
Seasonal characteristics of rapeseed meal price changes in China.
Affected by the seasonal production of rapeseed meal and the peak season and low season of rapeseed meal feed consumption in China, the price of rapeseed meal in China shows seasonal fluctuation law. From February to April every year, the domestic stock of rapeseed meal is small, the breeding begins to increase, and the price of rapeseed meal generally rises. From May to August, domestic rapeseed began to be listed centrally, and the new supply of rapeseed meal increased greatly, and the domestic rapeseed meal price often fell. In June and July, when the new season rapeseed meal has the strongest supply capacity, the price often falls to the low point of the year. 65438+ 10 From August to June, the domestic rapeseed pressing season ended one after another, and the supply capacity of rapeseed meal tended to decrease. However, aquaculture entered the peak demand season of rapeseed meal, showing a supply-demand pattern of decreasing supply expectation and obviously increasing demand, and the domestic rapeseed meal price showed an obvious upward trend. 1 1 In February next year, the purchasing season of aquaculture industry is over, and the domestic rapeseed meal prices generally show a steady or slight decline trend.
Analysis of factors affecting the price of rapeseed meal in China
Before 20 10, the quantity of imported rapeseed meal in China was small, and the price of rapeseed meal was mainly affected by domestic supply and demand. Usually, if the domestic rapeseed meal output drops in that year, the price will rise. If the domestic rapeseed meal output increases, the price will decrease. 20 10 China's rapeseed meal output decreased, and there was a gap between supply and demand, and the domestic rapeseed meal price remained high.
From the fourth quarter of 2009, the China government began to restrict the import of rapeseed in the main producing areas, resulting in a sharp drop in rapeseed imports. In the case that it is difficult to increase the domestic rapeseed meal output greatly, the domestic rapeseed meal output has decreased, but the consumption has maintained a small growth trend, further widening the gap between domestic rapeseed meal production and demand, and a large number of rapeseed meal must be imported to make up for it. In recent two years, China imported a large number of rapeseed meal, which significantly improved the supply and demand situation of rapeseed meal in China, and the price of rapeseed meal ran smoothly.
Although a large number of imported rapeseed meal made up for the shortage of domestic production and demand in recent two years, the imported rapeseed meal was exempted from value-added tax, and the duty-paid price of imported rapeseed meal was relatively low, which suppressed the domestic rapeseed meal price.
There is a strong correlation between the price of rapeseed meal in China and the supply and demand situation in the international oil market. In recent two years, the global oil supply situation is relatively stable, and the domestic rapeseed meal price trend is relatively stable, and the price fluctuation is obviously weaker than that in the past ten years.
Rapeseed meal is the second largest variety of protein powder in China, but its proportion in the whole protein powder market is much lower than that of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has a strong correlation with the price of soybean meal, and the price trend of rapeseed meal is also greatly affected by the price change of soybean meal.
Cottonseed meal and rapeseed meal are both restrictive protein raw materials in feed application, and they can be used together, which is a complementary relationship in practical application.
Rapeseed meal is mainly used as feed protein raw material, and the change of domestic feed aquaculture consumption demand has a great influence on rapeseed meal. The increase of domestic feed consumption demand, especially the increase of aquatic feed demand, often drives the price of rapeseed meal to rise, and vice versa.