No, the weather distribution in 2022 will indeed be characterized by drought in the north and heavy rain in the south. Especially the heavy rain in the south seems to be getting more intense. Many people will inevitably sigh: "The earth has entered an extreme state." Weather Era", in fact, this sigh is a bit exaggerated. It is true that the Earth's climate is becoming increasingly difficult to fathom, but it is far from "extreme" and even the concept used here is a bit incorrect.

Let me first emphasize the concepts of weather and climate. Climate is different from weather. More accurately, climate refers to the long-term pattern of weather in a specific area. Weather units can be hour to hour, day to day, month to month, or year to year. Therefore, many different weather patterns may occur in the same area throughout the year, and the weather that lasts the longest is the climate. Therefore, continuous heavy rains in a certain period of time cannot be easily determined as an "era". To give a very simple example, there is very little rainfall in desert areas and the climate is dry for a long time. Although rainfall may occur at a specific time period, and the rainfall may even last for a week, we will not be affected by it just because it rains for a week. The desert is characterized as entering a "humid era."

Over the past decade, there has been growing interest, based on both scientific and practical motivations, in possible links between historical global warming and individual extreme climate events. First, extreme weather underlies severe stresses on natural and human systems, so understanding the impact of historical warming on extreme events is critical to detecting the effects of climate change. Second, the frequency or intensity of extreme events is increasing, which may lead to unprecedented events on a global scale in the future. But again, the earth's climate will not change easily, and short-term extreme weather changes do not mean that we have entered an "extreme era." The main reason is that the earth's climate will not change easily, and greenhouse gas emissions will only change slightly. The details are as follows.

Cyclic changes in the Earth's climate occur on multiple time scales, from decades to hundreds, thousands and tens of thousands of years. Periods at each scale are caused by multiple physical mechanisms. The climate of any given period is a manifestation of all these nested mechanisms and cycles working together. Ten-thousand-year climate cycles, the major glacial (cold) and interglacial (warm) periods, are triggered by changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun and are called Milankovitch cycles. These cycles occur with varying intensities over periods of 10,000-100,000 years. Orbital changes occur slowly over time, affecting where solar radiation is received on the Earth's surface during different seasons. By themselves, these changes in solar radiation distribution are not enough to cause large temperature changes. However, they can activate powerful feedback mechanisms that amplify the slight warming or cooling effects caused by Milankovitch cycles.

One type of feedback is caused by changes in global surface reflectance (also called albedo). Even slight increases in solar radiation at northern latitudes can increase ice melt. As ice is lost, the bright white ice surface reflects less sunlight and the Earth absorbs more sunlight, increasing overall warming. The second feedback mechanism involves atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, such as carbon dioxide. Slight warming caused by changes in Earth's orbit warms the oceans, allowing them to release carbon dioxide. As we have seen, more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere leads to more warming, thus creating an amplifying effect (Hansen 2003). Different Feedback 2 concentrations in atmospheric CO may lag warming or cooling caused by orbital changes by up to 1000 years. In this way, small changes in the orbit at the beginning can produce glacial and interglacial cycles over the past 800,000 years. A major concern with current climate change is that similar feedback mechanisms will cause "runaway" warming effects in the modern day. This effect is extremely difficult to stop or reverse.

Century-scale climate cycles, in addition to the ten thousand-year glacial and interglacial cycles, also have shorter cold and warm cycles, which occur on a time scale of approximately 200 to 1,500 years.

The mechanisms that cause these cycles are not fully understood, but are thought to be driven by changes in the sun and several corresponding changes in ocean circulation patterns. For example, the Medieval European Warm Period (900-1300 AD) and the Ming and Qing Little Ice Age (1450--1900 AD) are examples of warm and cold phases in a cycle. Even some of these cycles, such as the Medieval European Warm Period, may have been regional and not necessarily reflect large changes in global averages. To sum up, the earth does not have an era of extreme weather, and the current man-made climate warming cannot affect the climate cycle of the solar system in which the earth is located. Compared with the entire universe, human behavior is actually very small.