1, domestic consumption continues to be sluggish, and China has retreated to the sixth largest consumer market in the world.
In recent years, the wine market in China has been in the doldrums. The data shows that the wine consumption in China has been declining year after year since 20 18, and it will drop to1240 million liters in 2020, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%, which is the biggest decline since 20 16. The main reasons are the new coronary pneumonia epidemic and the sluggish domestic consumption.
In the global wine consumption market, China is one of the main markets. Although the global wine consumption is also declining, the "recession" in China market is particularly obvious. According to the statistics released by OIV, the wine consumption of China ranked fifth in the world in 20 16-20 19, and fell to sixth in 2020.
2. Imported wines continue to occupy the domestic market.
From the perspective of domestic wine supply sources, imported wine has been one of the main suppliers in the domestic wine market for a long time. The data shows that the share of China wine imports in domestic wine consumption will remain above 25% from 2016 to 2020, and it will reach 30% at the peak (20 19).
At the same time, compared with the sales revenue of domestic wine enterprises, the gap between the import value of China wine and the sales value of domestic wine companies is getting smaller and smaller during 20 15-2020, especially after 20 18, the sales value of domestic wine companies is almost the same, which fully shows that imported wine has a "strong attack" on domestic wine.
3. Analysis of the reasons for the wine market downturn.
-is the Chinese people don't like to drink "wine"? No!
First of all, from the perspective of industry environment, the operating income of enterprises in the national brewing industry has always maintained a positive growth trend from 2017 to 2020. In 2020, the operating income of enterprises above designated size in the national brewing industry reached 835.33 billion yuan, up by 1.4% year-on-year. This not only shows that the overall operation of China's liquor industry is good, but also reflects that the consumption power of China's liquor market is relatively stable.
At the same time, wine is in the stage of category competition with liquor, foreign wine, beer and sparkling wine. Taking liquor and beer as an example, during 20 18-20 19, the output of liquor and beer in China was relatively stable, while the output of beer showed an increasing trend, and the output of liquor declined slightly in 20 19.
In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the output of liquor and beer declined. It is not difficult to see that compared with the wine market, other wine markets are relatively stable.
-is it that Chinese people can't afford it? Not even!
According to Wine
According to the survey data released by Intelligence in 2020, in 20 19 years, China and the United States had the highest proportion of consumers who drank high-grade wine. In the United States, the consumption of each bottle of wine was at least 15 US dollars, while in China, each bottle of wine was as high as 500 yuan RMB (70 US dollars). The domestic wine market started from the high-end market, but up to now, China consumers who love "high-end wine" have not favored wine.
However, according to the data of the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the first quarter of 20 15-202 1 year, taking 750ml 12 degrees of dry red wine as an example, the average consumption price of domestic high-end wines generally fell, while the average consumption price of low-end wines generally rose, which may indicate that domestic high-end wines are "low-end" and middle-end wines are more popular with consumers.
-Main reasons: marketing positioning+brand building.
Under the background of sufficient purchasing power in the market and stable development of the wine industry, domestic wines are in decline. The reasons are summarized as follows:
4. Can the domestic wine market "pick up" in the future?
On the one hand, according to the Guiding Opinions on the Development of China Wine Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan issued by china alcoholic drinks association, it is estimated that by 2025, China's wine production will reach 700 kiloliters, an increase of 75.0% over the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 1 1.8%; Sales revenue reached 20 billion yuan, an increase of 66.7% over the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 10.8%; The profit was 4 billion yuan, an increase of 300.0% over the end of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, with an average annual increase of 32.0%.
On the other hand, under the circumstances that the overall profit of the wine industry is bleak and has entered a deep adjustment, domestic wine manufacturers have also reflected, and some manufacturers have taken actions:
Therefore, judging from the development planning of china alcoholic drinks association and the actions taken by domestic wine manufacturers, the current "bleak" situation of the industry has not wiped out the hopes of wine practitioners, and the wine market in China still has a chance to "pick up", but when and how "spring" will come is still unknown.
For more industry-related data, please refer to Foresight Industry Research Institute's Forecast and Analysis Report on Production and Marketing Demand and Investment of China Wine Industry.