It is most like Maotai, but it is not Maotai either. The scarcity of Moutai lies in the fact that whether it is its stock price or industry status, other consumer stocks can only be infinitely close to it, but cannot be equal to it.

Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are both in the liquor industry. They are not just like Moutai, but rely more on Moutai. Moutai's demand spillover is its core logic.

Dismantling it only from ROE, in fact, the business model of enterprises like Moutai is clear at a glance.

Select representative companies from 9 industries including high-end liquor, condiments, dairy products, pickles, braised products, bread, meat products, beer, and snack foods for analysis, basically covering the major food and beverages of A-shares. faucet.

The company with the highest net profit margin is Moutai, followed by Fuling Mustard and Haitian Flavor Industry. None of the other companies exceeded 20.

The company with the lowest total asset turnover rate is Moutai, followed by Fuling Mustard and Tsingtao Beer. If we look at the business model alone and eliminate interfering factors, the inventory turnover rate is more appropriate.

The company with the lowest inventory turnover rate is still Moutai, followed by Fuling Mustard and Qiaqia Food.

High net profit margin and low turnover rate mean high unit prices, slow turnover, and the path of luxury goods; low net profit margin and high turnover rate mean small profits but quick turnover, and the path of mass consumer goods.

If you only dismantle ROE, you will find that one thing that subverts your understanding is: the small pickle, which is often regarded as a cheap product, does not rely on small profits but quick turnover, but, like Moutai, it has a very high premium. Rate.

So I say, based solely on the business model dismantled by ROE, Fuling Mustard is the A-share company that most resembles Moutai.

The same industry status. ?Moutai accounts for nearly half of the high-end liquor sales (42%), and a bottle is hard to find;

Fuling’s Wujiang series accounts for 37% of the mustard market share, and the second-place Yuquan mustard market only has 11%, showing a significant monopolistic pattern.

Same talent. Maotai is located on the banks of the Chishui River. The soil, climate, and microorganisms are all lacking in the Maotai flavor. Since the new millennium, the recognition has been strengthened, and the brand power of high-end liquor and national liquor has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The gold-lettered signboards are full of grandeur in every move.

Fuling has the advantage of producing area. Green cabbage, the raw material of mustard mustard, is delicate by nature. It likes low temperatures but is not cold-tolerant. The harvest time is short and it is intolerant to rain. It can only be grown in a few areas in Chongqing and Zhejiang.

The cultivation area of ??green cabbage in Fuling area accounts for more than 40% of the country's total, and the output accounts for about 36% of the country's total. The planting area of ??the entire Chongqing area accounts for 60% of the country's total.

Being close to the water, the cost advantage lies in the stable supply of raw materials rather than low prices. In 2018 and 2019, the purchase volume of Fuling mustard green cabbage heads accounted for about 30% of the green cabbage heads used for processing in Fuling District, and accounted for 75% of the company's purchase volume.

Zhejiang companies face the pain of traveling to Chongqing to buy mustard vegetables, but they don’t have to worry about Fuling mustard. As the only national mustard company, the stability of the supply chain is its core advantage.

The same stock price is touching. Based on the stock price restored before January 1, 2017, Fuling mustard rose from 8 yuan to 40 yuan, an increase of 400; Moutai rose from 230 to 1830, an increase of 700.

However, as stated at the beginning of the article, there are only companies that are infinitely close to Moutai, but there are no companies that are the same as Moutai.

Although Fuling has high net profit margins and ROE, and its business model is similar to Moutai, Moutai has no hidden worries. It is just small things such as the pace of production capacity release, channel reform and major shareholders fiddling with shares. Fuling has growth anxiety and Chengdu has no hidden worries. The color is quite different.

In terms of products, pickled mustard is only a condiment with meals, there is no demand for gifts, and it has no health attributes. It is not suitable for consumption upgrades;

In terms of channels, mustard distribution channels account for 60% of the market. It occupies more than 30%, and only 2% in the catering segment. The audience loyalty is poor and it is difficult to increase the volume;

Summary: The ceiling is low, and we rely on large single products. Radishes, pickles, and rice dishes are all expansion directions. Fuling’s anxiety still needs to be channeled and alleviated by expanding the entire market for condiments.

However, without raw material advantages and brand advantages, horizontal expansion is not easy.

In recent years, Moutai's investment attributes have been obvious, and it has basically stabilized demand fluctuations and has gone through bulls and bears. However, mustard is still not stable. The pace of price increases is inappropriate, and unreasonable inventory cycles will still lead to significant fluctuations in performance.

The high net profit margin is not natural, it comes from years of price increases. Moutai enjoys exclusive honor. The net profit margin from 2009 to 2019 was basically around 50. It is naturally proud. Fuling mustard's net profit margin in 2009 was only 10, and Haitian's was 20. The two's current net profit margins of close to 30 are the result of price increases close to 10 years ago.

Valuation analysis: Not as good as Moutai, it is still one of the top consumer stocks. A reasonable PE of 30 times is not expensive.

As long as growth anxiety does not ease, the stock price will be suppressed by valuation. Fuling's current inventory position, channels are sinking, and new products are being developed. The downside risk is relatively small. The main issue is the upside space of the stock price.

If the growth ceiling can be opened, it will still be exciting.

This concludes the condiment series, covering Qianhe Flavor Industry, Haitian Flavor Industry, Zhongju High-tech, Hengshun Vinegar Industry, Tianwei Food, and Fuling Mustard in more than two weeks. Historical articles can be searched and read.

Welcome to follow or star. Tomorrow night we will sort out the comparison and investment value analysis of 6 stocks, including defense, offense and balanced allocation. Soy sauce and hot pot ingredients can calm fluctuations.