Liu Yonghao: With the improvement of living standards, people begin to pay attention to nutrition, and the demand for milk is increasing. China is a big country, and dairy products are a big market with good returns. The profit-seeking nature of capital and the broad prospects of the industry make the funds naturally flow into the dairy industry.
In recent years, the rapid growth of domestic dairy industry is mainly driven by the market. Of course, it is also promoted by enterprises and strongly supported by the government. In addition, due to the market, dairy farmers benefit from it, the enthusiasm of raising cattle is improved, and the milk source is guaranteed. This is a virtuous circle.
The domestic dairy market has a huge development space. At present, the per capita possession of dairy products in the world is about 200 kilograms per year, while the per capita possession of dairy products in China is only about 8 kilograms. Even if it only doubles in the future, the market demand is an amazing figure.
Guo Weijian: A large amount of capital has entered the dairy market, and there is still room for market growth to support it. After all, from a global perspective, the per capita consumption level of dairy products in China is still very low. With the improvement of people's living standards and people's understanding of high-nutrition dairy products, the demand for dairy products will continue to grow. Especially in the past two years, the growth has become more obvious. The profitability of capital determines that it needs to find an industry to increase capital. Now everyone is predicting that the dairy market in China will maintain a growth rate of about 20% in the next 10-20 years. This prediction is still valid. Especially in the vast rural areas where the start is relatively low, the growth potential of dairy products market is very great. Relatively speaking, the consumption of dairy products in cities is mature and the growth rate may be lower than that in rural areas. Compared with rural areas, the per capita annual consumption of dairy products in cities is about 30 kilograms, while that in rural areas is only seven or eight kilograms. I judge that the influx of capital will last for about five years, and the rapid growth of the industry will last longer than five years.
Zheng Junhuai: After years of market cultivation, the consumption demand of dairy industry in China has developed rapidly. At present, market demand exceeds supply. Therefore, dairy enterprises in the industry will increase investment, expand production scale and accelerate the construction of milk source bases; While seeing the rapid growth of this industry, outsiders think that the profit space of this industry is relatively large, and they have also entered this industry. One of the means they take is to buy equity and get good returns from this industry through equity investment; Another form is the acquisition of dairy enterprises, so as to quickly enter this industry. It should be said that these two practices have played a positive role in accelerating the development of dairy industry.
The cultivation and development of the market has a gradual process. For example, in foreign countries, cheese consumption accounts for a large proportion of dairy consumption, while in China, cheese consumption accounts for a small proportion. Of course, with the development of the market, the shortage of supply will become a balance between supply and demand, and then it may become saturated at some point. After saturation, the profit margin will decline, and some enterprises will not survive and will quit.
Is it inevitable that the profit margin will decline?
At present, the competition in dairy industry is very fierce, and price is still the most important factor to attract consumers. The increase of entrants and the price war between manufacturers will inevitably reduce the profit rate of the industry, which also makes only enterprises with certain competitive advantages survive.
Reporter: When you walk around the supermarket, you can see that the "price war" of dairy products, especially liquid milk, is very fierce. On TV, a large number of dairy advertisements also make us feel the "gunpowder smell" of dairy competition. What kind of enterprises do you think will win in such fierce competition? How to evaluate the emergence of "dairy dark horse"?
Zheng Junhuai: Yes, this is a normal phenomenon, because everyone must find a way to sell their products, especially milk, which is not easy to store. If a product is to be sold, the most attractive thing for consumers is the price. Whoever has a low price and a favorable product can choose this product. Of course, rational consumers should not only look at the price, but also look at the brand, the reputation of the enterprise and the service of the enterprise. However, our consumers in China have not all reached the rational level, and whoever is cheaper will buy it. As a result, the profit margin of the industry will inevitably become thinner and thinner. From the development of this industry, every enterprise has its own advantages and disadvantages. How to give full play to its advantages and avoid its disadvantages is the most critical.
Guo Weijian: Everyone is cutting prices, and the profit rate will also drop, but as long as enterprises can bear it, this drop is normal. The positioning of enterprises is different, and the means of competition are different. Some enterprises maintain high prices to establish such a brand image, supported by expenses. However, some enterprises invest less in brands and may have lower prices. There are also great differences in consumption levels. In a big city like Beijing, there are people with upper and lower consumption levels. Some people may value the price more, while others may value the brand more. Therefore, under the background of the growth of the whole industry and the rapid expansion of consumer groups, all enterprises can have their own living space as long as they find their own positioning, whether it is high-end or low-end. Sanyuan, which is closer to the market, has the advantages of its own products. For example, the products of foreign companies are more ultra-high temperature sterilization products, and we may be more yogurt and pasteurized fresh milk with short shelf life.
Wang Jiafen: The dairy industry will be like the beer industry. Everyone will do it, the price will go down, the gross profit margin of the industry will continue to decline, the threshold for entry will be higher and higher, and small-scale enterprises will not be able to produce. Of course, there are dark horses in every industry. It is a good thing that the dairy market is dark horse, which will make our industry develop faster. Let's make the market bigger together. A bigger cake is good for us. If we fight alone, we can't arouse more people to drink milk. In addition, competition will force us to make continuous progress and innovation.
What will happen to new entrants in the future depends on their goals, culture and management. , but we must act according to economic laws. It is ok to have the courage to attack the city and plunder the land, but it is a problem that everyone faces to continuously improve profitability. Large companies must rely on management, and traditional management methods cannot make enterprises develop healthily and continuously. In addition, the lack of professionalism of professional managers is also a problem. At present, the overall level of dairy management talents is not enough, including me.
Liu Yonghao: We haven't been in this industry for long. Compared with the big companies in this industry, there are still some gaps and many shortcomings. But new hope also has its own advantages: we have worked in agriculture for 20 years, and we know something about agriculture, and we have considerable advantages in raising cattle and growing grass, that is, dairy resources; At the same time, it can also organically combine the interests of farmers with the needs of cities. We have a good mechanism and a new orientation. The combination of this mechanism and new direction with modern market economy can stimulate greater vitality and creativity. In addition, we have a platform for listed companies, a certain financial strength, a brand with new hope and an inclusive culture with new hope. So I believe that as long as we study with an open mind and make unremitting efforts, we can develop rapidly in the dairy industry and achieve better results.
Can the "bubble theory" be established?
The milk pouring incident is a very rare phenomenon, which does not mean that there is a bubble in the dairy industry. It is normal for some enterprises to make mistakes. As long as we find the right position, all enterprises have a way to survive, but some local governments are too deeply involved in the development of the industry, which deserves attention.
Reporter: Why is there a milk pouring incident in this market that some people think is in short supply? How to treat the "bubble theory" of dairy products market?
Guo Weijian: I don't quite agree with the statement that there is a bubble in the dairy industry. When a large amount of capital comes in, different strategies will be adopted. Whether it is from the milk source, or to the final sales channels and mobile links, its focus may be different, but as long as enterprises find their own advantages, they should all succeed. Of course, not everyone is successful even in the fast-growing industry. It is normal for some enterprises to make some mistakes because of management problems and decision-making problems. It is rare to pour milk, so it cannot be said that there is a big problem in the industry.
Wang Jiafen: I haven't carefully studied whether there is a "bubble" in our industry now. In the enterprise, if we have problems, we are also very clear: if the milk can't be sold, we will lose money; Capital should be profit-seeking, and if it loses, it will automatically quit. But the key is that the government should not intervene, which is what we have always stressed. Government support should be mainly reflected in industrial policy and industrial orientation, after all, it involves agricultural structure and industrial structure adjustment. Now some local governments are too enthusiastic and ask farmers to raise cattle. I'm a little worried that this may lead to some problems.
Zheng Junhuai: Dairy industry is different from other industries. It is an industry with a relatively tight chain. Specifically, the market, base and processing capacity should be matched, and problems will arise if they are not matched. In this tight chain, the first is the market. However, with the market, the market demand will not be digested unless the milk source problem is solved, and the varieties are processed and enriched.
Who is more important, milk source or marketing?
Milk source construction is highly valued by dairy enterprises, and many enterprises have established their own effective milk source construction mechanism. In addition to milk source, market, marketing channels, brands and other factors are also very important.
Reporter: We have seen that with the entry of capital, the enclosure movement of milk sources has intensified. How to solve the problem of "putting limited resources into infinite competition"? Will milk source eventually become the bottleneck of the company's dairy industry development?
Zheng Junhuai: As far as the milk source base is concerned, the dairy cows in China are developing rapidly at present, with the promotion of the government and the intervention of investors, which has great development potential. At the same time, China also bought cows from Australia and New Zealand on a large scale. Because of the surplus dairy industry in developed countries, the price of buying dairy cows is not much higher than that in China, so the momentum is very strong now. In addition, the natural growth rate of dairy cows is also very fast. Last year, the development speed of dairy industry in China exceeded 20%, even higher in some places. For example, in Hohhot, the development speed of dairy industry exceeds 50%.
At the earliest, our area was raised by farmers' families, each with two or three cows. This model has its advantages, that is, the feeding cost is very low, but many problems such as storage and disease prevention make the disadvantages of decentralized feeding more and more obvious. For example, a farmer milks milk at night. If it is not well preserved, it will turn sour the next day. After rancidity, either dump it or neutralize it with alkali. So since 1996, we have made a big integration on the basis of the original one-family feeding. In the village where farmers concentrate on raising cattle, a modern milking parlour has been established. Farmers raise cows independently, concentrate on milking in our milking hall, and then use our refrigerated milk storage tank to quickly cool down, and our milk collection truck will pull the milk back to the factory in time. This ensures that our milk is really milking, and removes other intermediate links and human factors. In addition, we also provide comprehensive supporting services, from breeding to feeding, from forage supply to milk storage, collection and payment. These problems are solved by our cooperation with local animal husbandry units.
Through this model, the interests of farmers are guaranteed. According to the calculation, each cow can earn four or five thousand dollars a year, which is very profitable. Farmers dare not raise more, and now they are developing on a large scale. In this case, we have taken further integration measures. One is to set up a dairy community, where farmers will move their cows to raise them, with a scale of 10 to 20 cows. When people and animals are separated, farmers will concentrate on developing the dairy industry. The second mode is to provide financial and equipment support to people with certain financial strength and experience in raising cattle. In this way, a number of large-scale dairy farmers have been developed, and some dairy farmers now raise 200 to 300 cows. Another form is pasture park. We provide basic conditions to attract large cattle farmers from other places to drive their cattle to the park. The scale of parks now ranges from 3000 to 6000.
Intensive, for the stability of milk source base, for dairy processing enterprises to obtain high-quality milk source, improving efficiency is very good. Now in our region, there are many service organizations around the dairy industry. Some are responsible for buying cattle, some are responsible for supplying feed, some are responsible for epidemic prevention and control, improving dairy breeds, and some are responsible for planting pasture. ...
The division of social specialties is becoming more and more detailed, with improved efficiency, reduced cost and guaranteed quality. Developed countries abroad have achieved this step, and we are moving closer to foreign countries.
Liu Yonghao: When it comes to the bottleneck of future development, I think resources and milk sources are the first. Whether there are good pastures and good cows is the key and foundation for the future development of enterprises. Of course, brand is also very important, especially in market expansion. There are also the strength of enterprises, service means, marketing network and enterprise talents, which all play an important comprehensive role.
Wang Jiafen: In our industry, the construction of milk source is as important as the development of dairy market. Some people say that milk source is the biggest problem in Guangming, but I have always insisted that the market is the biggest problem. We deeply feel that the development of dairy industry is closely related to dairy farmers. Since the 1980s, it took us 10 years to increase the cattle industry in Shanghai from 20,000-30,000 to 50,000-60,000, which cost a lot of money. Starting from 1995, formulate and implement "making use of national resources to make the national market"
At the time of strategy, we also consider the milk source processing market. In order to avoid the seasonal problem of milk source, it is necessary to establish a milk source base in the northern region with the most developed milk source in China. We know that it takes time to raise cattle, but cows can move, so we made the layout of milk sources early. Over the years, we have been thinking more and more rationally about the relationship among milk source base, market and processing.
Now the dairy industry is in a period of rapid development, and there is no big constraint. At present, it is urgent to solve how to ensure the effective implementation of product quality system standards.
Guo Weijian: Enterprises should have a relatively stable upgrade in scale, and the growth of many small enterprises will be limited. In my opinion, the most important thing to enhance competitiveness is at both ends, one is milk source and the other is marketing channel. No matter which direction you pay attention to, you are right. From the perspective of ternary, some enterprises may not develop fast, and some enterprises have surpassed us, which makes us feel great pressure. There are reasons for the lack of funds, and more importantly, the sales of Sanyuan are limited to Beijing for a long time, and the national marketing network is not perfect. When the demand for dairy products, especially in small and medium-sized cities, increased greatly, we did not share the rapidly growing cake.
How to improve profitability?
Industry characteristics are suitable for large-scale operation. In addition to simply upgrading the scale, the innovation of enterprise marketing network construction and production organization form is also of extraordinary significance for enterprises to achieve profit growth.
Reporter: In the last two years, both horizontally and vertically, the expansion speed of dairy enterprises is accelerating. So, what is the most effective way to compete for milk source and market? With the increase of output and capacity, how will enterprises ensure the coordinated growth of income and profit?
Guo Weijian: After everyone comes in, the integration of enterprises and brands is essential. In this process, some enterprises will continue to expand and some will be merged. Dairy products are not very different, but the processing, technology and equipment are similar. If the standards are strictly followed, no one will drink anyone's milk. What capital sees is that the industry is expanding and the demand is expanding. The products in this industry are not very different and the technical content is not very high. Unlike some industries, the dairy industry needs control rather than high technology.
Sanyuan first monopolized in Beijing, accounting for 100% of the Beijing market. Now that the market is open, it will definitely give up part of the market, and Sanyuan will probably give up 30% of Beijing's share. Therefore, Sanyuan will definitely not stick to the Beijing market if it wants to expand. In my opinion, building a huge sales network is a shortcut to increase profits. M&A integration is more complicated and costly, so it is better to make the network more solid, deeper and faster. After the listing of the three yuan, the raised funds will have a relatively large investment in the construction of sales channels. I believe that in the next two or three years, the company's income in other places will be greatly improved. Our wish is to reverse the company's current revenue ratio of 7 to 3 compared with Beijing and other cities.
While expanding the market, we will also seize the appropriate opportunity to acquire dairy enterprises from other provinces and cities, and increase the overall production capacity and market share of Sanyuan through entrusted processing and independent factory construction. Of course, we don't just use our own resources. For example, we set up a factory in Australia, using local natural high-quality milk sources to produce milk powder, cheese and other products.
In short, the industry's increased investment in brands and equipment is still within the normal range, which still guarantees a certain profit margin. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of raw materials such as sucrose and packaging materials have declined to varying degrees, and the production costs of dairy production enterprises have also decreased slightly.
Liu Yonghao: The most effective way of competition is quality, brand and reputation. Dairy products are imported, and quality is the key. To ensure the quality, there must be a good milk source and a good dairy base. Let consumers drink safe milk and environmentally friendly milk. New Hope recently built a project with a daily milk production of 65,438+0,000 tons in Eryuan County, Yunnan Province, and one of them took a fancy to the natural environment here. In Dali Prefecture, there are more than 3 million mu of natural pastures and nearly10 million mu of high mountains for grassland development. Here, the water plants are beautiful, the seasons are like spring, and there is a history of raising cows for 500 years. We should build a very environmentally friendly dairy factory in this very environmentally friendly place to ensure the quality of milk from the milk source. We will take Dali as the production and processing base and milk source base of New Hope dairy products, and it is possible to market "butterfly spring" as the main brand of New Hope.
Wang Jiafen: Under the adjustment of market means, there will be product differentiation, personnel training and organizational innovation brought about by technological innovation. The characteristics of our industry require large-scale operation, which will eventually call for the emergence and success of large enterprises. However, compared with the integration process abroad, China is generally shorter in time.
The competition in dairy industry will become more and more fierce, and it is difficult to meet the needs of competition by relying on traditional investment and factory expansion, so we have to innovate. In addition, we are located in Shanghai, and our operating costs are higher than those of other enterprises. Too much emphasis on self-reliance will inevitably increase costs, further shrink profit margins and bring huge financial risks. Therefore, we have formulated an "asset-light strategy", taking the intangible assets such as bright dairy's own brand, technology, management and business philosophy as an important weight for expansion.
In terms of milk source, we gradually sell some pastures to others for management. But we sell some pastures to manage more pastures. We sent a management technical team to the ranch to serve, put all the information of the ranch on the internet, set up an "online ranch", set up a file for each cow, and track and monitor it. In this way, although the pasture is not ours, we control the milk source through management and ensure the quality of raw materials. In the past few decades, Guangming has achieved 200,000 tons of milk source in Shanghai by traditional methods; And through the use of light assets, in more than two years, our milk source suddenly exceeded 600,000 tons. In terms of finished products, we outsource the production and manufacturing of dairy products to other dairy enterprises through OEM, and go all out to carry out product design, research and development, sales, service and brand promotion. This year, we spent nearly 100 million on CCTV advertising, which is also based on this. Through the "light asset strategy", Bright Dairy has stabilized the milk source and expanded the market share of products, on the other hand, it has effectively controlled the company's costs and achieved efficient and rapid growth.
Zheng Junhuai: After the influx of capital, the next step is integration. In this way, some enterprises with core competitiveness and unique advantages will develop faster, while some enterprises may be eliminated. Through the adjustment of market mechanism, large enterprise groups control a large number of market shares; Small and medium-sized enterprises rely on their characteristics to survive and develop, and market competition will also move from disorder to order.
Yili started as a "base" company, and today, it has become a "base+market" company. Many of our current production bases are built in big cities. In Beijing, we set up a yogurt factory with the most advanced technology in China. In Shanghai, we have a modern ice cream factory; In addition, we also have factories and production bases in Xi, Shenyang and Wuhan. It has formed a complete layout of the nationwide optimal allocation of resources and the combination of milk source base, production base and market.