Since late February, the price of peanuts has maintained a stable and strong trend.
Compared with the third quarter of last year, the price of cattle dropped by more than 2000 yuan in 2 yuan. The price of sheep showed a good trend, increasing by 1 yuan over the previous year.
In the last two months, the price of pigs is also ideal and continues to rise.
Urea has dropped.
Recently, the urea market continues to be weak, and the prices of domestic mainstream manufacturers are lowered 10-50 yuan/ton.
Specific to the changes in various regions, some enterprises in Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the mainstream turnover of small and medium-sized particles was around 2750-2780 yuan/ton; Anhui enterprises cut 10 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of small particles is about 2750-2830 yuan/ton; The price of Guangdong enterprises is lowered by 30-40 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price of small and medium-sized particles is about 2,860-2,900 yuan/ton.
Recently, the price of urea has stopped falling, which I think is mainly related to the following logic:
1. Although there is demand for green manure in some areas, the demand is relatively scattered, which has weak support for urea prices.
2. Previously, the parking enterprises have gradually returned to normal, and the daily output of urea has rebounded to normal level.
3. The industry is still dominated by just-needed procurement, and enterprises are cautious in replenishing goods.
4. The price of coal, an important raw material of urea, dropped sharply, which led to the decline of urea price.
In the short term, the overall supply of urea is at a high level, and there is no effective positive information stimulus on demand. It is expected that the price will continue to fall.
Peanuts have gone up in price
Recently, the domestic peanut spot market price continues to be stable and strong. After adjustment, the price of the same rice in Baisha, Henan Province rose to about 5.8-5.9, that in Haihua, Shandong Province rose to about 5.5-5.6, that in Liaoning Province rose to about 5.85-6.0, and that in Jilin Province rose to about 5.9-6.0.
The recent increase in peanut prices mainly has the following logic:
1. With the consumption of peanuts in the early production areas, the level of surplus grain is low, which makes it more difficult for traders to replenish their stocks, and they are more willing to bid and actively raise the purchase price.
2. The price of imported peanuts has risen, and the price has risen with the domestic market, thus pushing up the price of domestic peanuts.
3. The terminal catering consumption resumed, the demand for peanut oil increased, and the demand gap of oil plants widened, so it was forced to raise prices and collect grain.
Although the price of peanuts is rising, there are still unfavorable factors such as weak demand performance and slow consumption of surplus grain in the market.
After the temperature rises, it is more difficult to store peanuts, and centralized shipment is under pressure.
Imported rice for Hong Kong will continue to increase, and peanut prices will be under pressure.
Need to remind everyone that as the spot price of peanuts rises, market risks are also accumulating, so don't chase after it.
The price of cattle has fallen sharply, while the price of sheep has rebounded.
Since the third quarter of last year, the price of cattle has been depressed. Compared with the price reduction of 2 yuan/kg in the third quarter of last year, the price of 1000 kg of cattle sold was 2000-3000 yuan less, which further aggravated the losses of farmers.
At present, cattle prices in East China 17.4- 18.7 yuan, Central China 17.3- 18.6 yuan, North China17.4-/8.6 yuan, and Northeast China17.3.
The main reasons for the decline in beef prices are as follows: 1. The relatively high price of beef restricts the demand for beef consumption in the market and is currently in the off-season of meat demand.
2. The price of pork dropped significantly, which seized some beef markets.
3. Before, the price of cattle was ideal, the profit of raising cattle was relatively high, and the amount of cattle raised was at a relatively high level.
It is difficult to change the situation that the price of beef exceeds demand in a short period of time, but the production capacity of beef cattle in the market is declining. There is also good news that Brazilian beef imports have been suspended, which is of great help to the subsequent improvement of beef prices.
Compared with before the Spring Festival, the price of sheep is still relatively ideal, with a catty rising by more than one yuan. At present, the mainstream price of goats is about 14- 16 yuan/kg, and that of sheep is about 15- 17 yuan/kg.
On the one hand, the rebound of sheep price benefited from the improvement of epidemic situation, which led to the increase of mutton consumption demand.
On the other hand, thanks to the de-capacity last year, the production capacity of mutton sheep has dropped significantly.
Although the price of sheep is picking up, it is generally believed in the industry that the real turning point of the price of sheep has not yet arrived, and the real rising cycle may need to wait until May and June.
Pig prices continue to rise.
In recent two months, pig prices have been rising continuously, and in March 1 got off to a good start, including Jiangsu, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jilin, Gansu and Southwest China, but pig prices in North China, Liaoning, Shaanxi, Henan and Anhui are still declining.
After adjustment, the pig prices in East China are 7.8-8.5 yuan, Central China 7.8-8.2 yuan, South China 7.8-8.5 yuan, North China 7.8-8.2 yuan, Northeast China 7.8-8. 1 yuan, and Southwest China 7.5-8 yuan.
The most important reason for the increase in pig price is that after the pig price fell to a low point, the willingness of the breeding end to stand at a high price increased, and the increase in pig price stimulated the passion of the breeding end for secondary fattening, which greatly reduced the supply of pigs in the market. Although pork consumption is at a low point at present, the decline in supply exceeds that of pork.
In addition, affected by the epidemic situation and high pork prices, residents hoarded less pork, pork consumption recovered earlier after the holiday than in previous years, and the recovery of catering and tourism also led to an increase in pork demand.