The average price of 28 kinds of vegetables in the key test was 5.15 yuan per kilogram, up 2.2 percent from the pre-holiday period.
The average price of six kinds of fruits in the key test was 7.17 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8 percent from before the festival.
With the end of the infection peak in some areas, the market consumption ushered in an improvement, so the next meat, vegetables, grain, fruit which will rise in price?
A, meat
January 3, pork, beef, lamb and white chicken prices "three up and one down", pork, beef and white chicken prices rose, lamb prices fell.
Pork prices are likely to continue to rise, although the current market supply of hogs is at a high level, and the big fat there are still two or three percent of the stock did not enter the market, but the next will enter the peak demand for pork, on the one hand, the Chinese New Year consumption of good drive, on the other hand, with the number of infected people fell, around the catering industry is gradually recovering, dine-in increase, the market and superstore and other places of the customer flow recovery, the market is hopeful of a wave of consumption, the market will continue to rise, but the price of pork will continue to rise. The market is hopeful that there will be a wave of retaliatory consumption, pork consumption demand growth is likely to exceed the growth in the number of hogs available for slaughter, pork oversupply is hopeful of a reversal of the state, which will lead to pork prices to stop falling rebound.
Beef prices are also likely to continue to rise, but the rate of increase is limited.
China's beef supply has always shown a tight state, in order to meet the beef supply, every year need to import a large amount of beef, as of November 2022, China's cumulative imports of 2.45 million tons of beef in 2022, more than last year's annual imports of beef.
The increase in the volume of imported beef has been accompanied by a decline in the price of imported beef since July.
Following the recovery of terminal food and beverage consumption, beef prices will continue to rise, but the increase in beef prices is limited under the suppression of high import volume and lower imported beef prices.
Sheep prices are expected to continue to decline, on the one hand, the national capacity of sheep meat is in oversupply, on the other hand, the high price of sheep meat to inhibit consumption, just in the case of the consumer side of the recovery of the price of lamb will not be very large, and the market has a stabilizing trend of the recent price of sheep.
There is a risk of another pullback in the price of white chicken.
Recently, as the capacity of slaughtering enterprises around the world resumed and the end consumer demand improved, the price of gross chicken saw a large increase.
But there is a risk of another pullback in both white-striped chicken and gross chicken prices.
First, the current broiler capacity is relatively abundant.
The second, slaughtering enterprises poor goods, terminal consumption has not yet fully recovered, retaliatory consumption driven by insufficient.
Two, vegetables
Yunnan region by the recent rain and cooling, vegetable production decline, the northern greenhouse vegetable planting costs, planting area is small, as well as the New Year's Day demand stimulation and end of the food and beverage consumption improvement of the impact of the recent vegetable prices rose slightly, the focus of the monitoring of the 28 kinds of vegetables weekly average price rose by 4.2% from the previous year.
Causing vegetable prices to go up, I think there are mainly a few logic:
1, before by the reason of consumption downturn and poor transportation, vegetable prices excessively low, and recently gradually return to normal.
2, New Year's Day consumption favorable, driving the demand for vegetable consumption.
3, fall vegetables closing, greenhouse vegetables entry, greenhouse vegetables planting costs are high, production is relatively small.
Next, the probability of vegetable prices will continue to rise, especially cauliflower, spinach, lettuce, a class of fresh leafy vegetables.
On the one hand, it is more difficult to transport vegetables in winter, increasing costs.
On the other hand, entering the Spring Festival stocking period, rigid demand enhanced.
Given the possibility of subsequent price increases in vegetables, you can purchase potatoes, cabbage, turnips and other storage-resistant vegetables in advance.
Three, grain
Recently on the market wheat and corn prices have different degrees of decline, corn prices, Shandong deep-processing enterprises were reduced by 0.5-2 points, the price fell to between 1.42-1.48 yuan, North China corn prices down 0.8-1 points, the price came to 1.36-1.495 yuan.
Wheat prices were cut by 0.5 cents in some milling enterprises in Shandong, with prices coming to 1.61-1.635 yuan, 0.5 cents in some enterprises in Hebei, with prices coming to 1.605-1.62 yuan, and 0.2-0.5 cents in Henan, with prices coming to 1.6-1.715 yuan.
Next, the price of corn and wheat is still easy to fall but hard to rise, the basic logic is as follows:
1, near the end of the year, leaving little time for farmers and traders to ship, after the recovery of transportation, the market is afraid of a wave of centralized volume wave.
2, by the end of the previous period of poor goods, most of the flour enterprise inventory is large, part of the milling enterprises have gradually stopped purchasing, there are some enterprises to fall waiting for the holiday to stop receiving.
3, grass-roots farmers in the hands of corn surplus more, farmers and the demand for pre-holiday cash, corn prices fear pressure.
4, the end of the poor flour, farming market decline, profit tightening, affecting the feed side of the demand for corn, grain price support is weak.
Four, fruit
Because of the increase in the number of infections, according to a reporter's survey, the market citrus and pears, two kinds of fruit sales have increased dramatically, and along with it there is a significant increase in prices.
In addition to these two categories of fruit, the key monitoring of the six kinds of fruit weekly average price also rose 4.2%, up 12.9% year-on-year, watermelon rose 4.2%, Fuji apples rose 2.3%, bananas rose 1%.
Next, the probability that the price of fruit will rise for some time.
One is because the short-term epidemic infection peak will not end, pears, citrus fruits demand remains at a high level, the short-term heat is difficult to reduce.
The second is because after the fruit prices rose, fruit farmers and merchants are stronger willingness to support prices.
Three is around the successive resumption of work to bring the fruit demand boom is worth looking forward to.
Fourth, the Spring Festival consumption favor is about to power, fruit market demand is at a high level.
But it should be noted that with the peak of the epidemic in the past, the market demand for fruit heat will weaken, coupled with the impact of the epidemic in recent years, everyone's income, the demand for the stabilization of the recovery on the need for time, and does not rule out the decline in heat, fruit prices may fall back.