Stealing the box office, screenwriters are "pro-Japanese elements", the film production companies tear each other ...... In the excitement of everyone counting at the same time, the film has also begun to fight among themselves.
The bloody Spring Festival stall war, which started at the end of 2017, has never weakened and has even escalated as time progresses, making 2018 the most competitive Spring Festival stall ever.
The Spring Festival holiday has ended and February has bottomed out, so it doesn't make much sense to simply dwell on the rights and wrongs of the Spring Festival slot anymore.
The author believes that instead of looking back and lamenting, it would be better to predict the future, what will happen to the Spring Festival next year? What will happen to the Spring Festival stalls a few years from now?
2019 Chinese New Year schedule: one word, no change should be the same
Chinese New Year schedule is not so much a carnival for all people, but a "cake" party for the head company, from China Film, Wanda, Light, to some original batch companies and even some companies that can't guess the name of the company, all join in the party. Chinese New Year movie producers, even do TV drama Huazhe also seized the opportunity to produce a New Year's movie.
The author boldly predicts that the 2019 Spring Festival slot can basically have a general outline appear, nothing more than these names: "Demon Hunter 3"? Tangled Street Detective 3? Journey to the West of XXX prequel? Plus the ever-popular "Bears" and the highest benchmark of war action movies from the past two years: "Wolf Warrior 3"?
Unconsciously, since the box office of the Spring Festival stalls exceeded 1 billion in 2014, the Spring Festival stalls have shown certain patterns, and such a pattern has been confirmed by an even stronger and more reliable proof in 2018, so we have reason to believe that the Spring Festival stalls of 2019 have a great possibility to continue such a pattern.
Law 1
Sequels are not afraid of more, as long as people watch
"Where to go dad 1" was on in 2014, and in 2015 there was immediately "Where to go dad 2", until the IP was gradually restricted in the official and eliminated in the private sector. 2014 there was "The Wind and Cloud of Macao", and in 2015 there was "The Wind and Cloud of Macao 2", until the "The Wind and Cloud of Macao 3" was so poorly received that no one was able to see it.
The Journey to the West series has been filmed by different directors and companies, and has become the biggest beneficiary of the Chinese New Year sequel effect. It's just a pity that the IP owner Wu Chengnan can't be reincarnated, or else his old man would have no problem earning several hundred million dollars a year in royalties.
Why is Journey to the West so popular? Because of a word "stable", Wu Chengen's old man storyline is skillfully organized, shooting up very smooth; and is known to all the four masterpieces, the audience does not have any sense of unfamiliarity; many episodes and are family-friendly, young and old can watch.
Don't underestimate the word "stable", the Chinese New Year file is this "stable" - a steady profit. Therefore, the sequel of the big IP is very suitable for the Chinese New Year slot in the theater. As long as the previous work is considered a success, the same set of team can be steadily continued, the story in the previous work on the basis of the steady continue to unfold, but the big deal is to change a few corners, change a scene, shot out of the box office to earn a steady.
The best example of this is the series "Bears", which is simply a "stable" sequel to the Spring Festival classic masterpiece, unknowingly has been five consecutive years into the Spring Festival gear; from a certain point of view, "Bears" has formed a monopoly in the Spring Festival stalls in a certain way, it is difficult to imagine that there is another animated film can be driven away!
The Bear has formed a monopoly in the Spring Festival, and it's hard to imagine another animated film that can take over the "money-sucking position" of the Spring Festival animated family movie.
So, we have reason to believe that the 2019 Spring Festival stall we will also see "Bears", and "Journey to the West", and even "Demon Hunter 3" and "Tang Dynasty Case 3", and even more, I predict, there is "Wolf 3".
You think it's a bit annoying, right? It's okay, you'll still shell out money to watch the show. We'll talk about why later.
Law 2
The box office is getting more and more stable, and the audience is getting more and more used to it
The total box office of the Spring Festival is also unusually "stable", just like "Bears", but this kind of "stability" is more of a "steady growth". "steady growth". 2014 Spring Festival box office exceeded 1 billion for the first time, reaching 1.45 billion, 2015 box office 1.81 billion, 2016 reached 3.38 billion, 2017 reached 3.42 billion, 2018 reached 5.7 billion,
We can find a "Steady" law, not only the box office revenue is getting higher and higher, but also the proportion of the box office in the current year is also rising: the annual box office in 2015 was 44 billion, and the Spring Festival file accounted for 4.1%; the annual box office in 2016 was 45.7 billion, and the Spring Festival file accounted for 6.0%; the annual box office in 2017 was 55.9 billion, and the Spring Festival file accounted for 6.11%, from the trend. 6.11%, judging from the trend, this year's Spring Festival gear accounted for 2018 box office may be higher, the probability will be more than 7%.
Additionally, in the last three years of the Spring Festival, in terms of the "quantity" of films, the quantity and quality are on the rise, from four films in 2016 to six in 2018.
This trend is largely due to the fact that Chinese audiences are getting more and more accustomed to going to the theater during the Spring Festival holiday, a habit that has been gradually cultivated over the past 4-5 years. From the first day of the Lunar New Year to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, the structure of the audience in each cinema was clearly characterized by an increasing proportion of family-type ticket purchases, couples' dates, and group purchases of classmates' friendships, a phenomenon that was particularly evident in the audience groups of second-, third- and fourth-tier cities.
The most noteworthy phenomenon of Chinese New Year movie watching is the role of the "catalyst of returning youth", under the tide of the Spring Festival, first-tier city workers return to the 2-5 line, according to the 2017 microfilm data show that each person can drive about 3-5 potential users in their hometowns to watch the movie, and this habit of movie watching will slowly become more and more popular with every This kind of viewing habits will be slowly popularized with each tide of homecoming, and continue to precipitate; on the other hand, as the construction of theaters continue to sink, the number of screens increased, such a "homecoming catalyst" in the precipitation after the outbreak, and finally this year to be the blowout, and this kind of accumulation of thinning out in the next few years should also continue.
Law No. 3
From a single player to a group of players, the competition in the Spring Festival will become more and more intense
Those who are interested should remember that from 2014 to 2017, although the Spring Festival was very lively, the competition was quite limited and relatively mild.
Every year, there are always one or two films that stand out as the biggest winners, while other films that failed to meet expectations at the box office are mostly aware of the situation and content with the moviegoing and box office volume that has already been magnified several times more than usual.
But starting in 2017, the Chinese New Year slot saw some fierce physical battles. Insiders should remember when "Journey to the West" took 1.15 billion yuan at the box office in seven days of release to win the Spring Festival slot, "Kung Fu Yoga" also captured 870 million yuan at the box office, "Big Trouble in the Sky" had 570 million yuan at the box office, and "Ride the Wind and Waves" had 410 million yuan. Although "Journey to the West" is still the champion, it is facing the simultaneous three blockbusters chasing and "robbing the box office".
This situation has never happened in the previous Spring Festival slot, on the one hand, because the volume of the Spring Festival slot is not large enough, the film competition space is limited; on the other hand, there are not too many companies pouring all their efforts to raise the cost of publicity and development on a Spring Festival slot blockbusters; but such a situation has been fundamentally reversed in 2017-2018, similar to the "Mermaids," such a family of all phenomena may never be able to reproduce. can never be repeated.
2018 is worthy of the history of the "most intense Spring Festival file", as early as in the Spring Festival file a few days before the start of the industry has been rumored to be the "Spring Festival file ticket subsidy restrictions", that is, the national theater ticket price is not less than 19.9 yuan, a single film subsidies shall not exceed 500,000, this The logic behind this is clear: no one wants their rivals to get high box office through unusual means, and everyone has confidence in their own content and feels that their movie can make a lot of money.
New Year's Eve, the Spring Festival movie pre-sales have exceeded 600 million, of which, "To Catch a Demon 2" pre-sales of 268 million, "Chinatown Detective 2" pre-sales of 200 million, "Daughters of the Journey to the West" "preview" plus pre-sales of 260 million.
The unprecedented huge investment in the promotion and distribution of the various films, the average cost of each film's promotion and distribution are in the 100 million up and down; the means are also varied, from the Spring Festival Gala, satellite TV party, high-speed rail, airplanes, to the depth of the foreign marketing, and even rural walls ......
Such a pre-sale and promotion of inputs led to the later box-office The quotations of a day a situation, a few days a reverse, until finally the word of mouth gradually precipitation, put aside a variety of microblogging on the explosion and accusations, promotion and pre-sale on the smallest movement of the "Operation Red Sea" surprisingly became the final winner.
The author will not repeat and review the specifics of the 2018 Spring Festival file, but it is worth thinking about is the Spring Festival file of the cake share more and more, six films on the lineup, the most years, more than 100 producers sit in the back, similar to the China Film, Huaxia, Hengdian, Jinyi, Wentou, and other companies have invested in at least two films, such a group of wolves and group of tigers proved that: the Spring Festival file! This kind of competition between wolves and tigers proves one thing: the Chinese New Year period has entered a complete era of warring states. Don't be surprised if the future Chinese New Year period will be filled with more films, more producers, and more bloodshed, from pre-sales, to promotions, to the end of the day, this is the concentration of all the real phenomena of China's movie market.
The myth of the Spring Festival: Is there a bottleneck? Is the Spring Festival slot going to stay this hot?
The Spring Festival slot in 2019 is likely to see more sequel movies, including "Bears", which has already been renewed for N years, and the burden of setting a new box office record may also be accomplished by the double "crown effect" of "The Wolf" and the Spring Festival slot. Finish. Of course, there may be new blockbusters into the next year or the year after the Spring Festival stall competition, happy twist can come out of a Spring Festival stall comedy blockbusters, "ex 4" can also pick the Spring Festival stall to a big challenge .......
But the question is, is there a bottleneck in the Spring Festival growth? The problem is that there is no bottleneck in the growth of the Chinese New Year, is it that the Chinese New Year stalls have been so hot, 10 billion, 20 billion?
The author believes that there are three dimensions that can help us understand the nature of the Spring Festival stalls more profoundly and soberly, and at the same time predict possible bottlenecks that threaten the continued growth of the Spring Festival stalls.
01
Changes in the macroeconomic and social environment
In China, the movie industry is perhaps the only mass-consumer market that is still subject to a high degree of administrative intervention. Although many of its business processes have been completely opened up to the private sector, its daily transactions are still in the hands of the government, at least in the general sense (the regulators don't particularly care about who is stealing from whom at the box office). regulators don't particularly care, it's all small numbers in the grand scheme of things).
It goes without saying that going to the movies is essentially a form of entertainment consumption, and then the level of income of China's urban residents determines the scale of entertainment consumption. The cultural industry is able to grow because of this, and movies are no exception, and the Chinese New Year slot is even less of an exception.
China is currently in the so-called "third consumption upgrade" period, with the fastest-growing sectors being education, entertainment, culture, transportation, communication, healthcare, tourism and other services. Movies, as popular entertainment, are wrapped up in the overall economic trend and are bound to follow some common market laws. For example, when the market is in a period of rapid growth, the income level of consumers often has a decisive impact on spending power.
The movie is not a new consumer, it as an entertainment program has long existed in our lives. It is only in recent years that the new construction of theaters, the management of piracy, and the relaxation of content censorship have changed the audience's consumption scenarios and increased consumption expenditures.
So from a certain point of view, what restricts the growth of the movie box office or the growth of the Spring Festival box office is, in the end, the people's spending power and the price level; just imagine, if the movie tickets cost an average of 100 yuan each, the box office of the third and fourth-tier cities will drop dramatically, and we will all go back to sitting in front of the TV set every night to watch the free programs or use wifi to brush the circle of friends. The same track.
This is also why before the Spring Festival stalls appeared ticket subsidy restrictions and the producers and distributors of a variety of repetitive, because there is no denying the fact that the annual box office, including the Spring Festival stalls of the box office, is not a true reflection of the scale of consumption of the movie, a considerable portion of the merchants to join hands with their own imported "water".
02
The "non-filmization" of the Spring Festival
Some people have said that the biggest problem for Chinese movies is the "contradiction between the growing aesthetic demand of the masses and the low productivity of Chinese movies. Such a contradiction seems to have been eased in the past two years, but no one can guarantee that "Demon Hunter" and "Bears" will still be able to satisfy everyone's aesthetic needs as Hollywood blockbusters are replaced.
People in third- and fourth-tier cities are getting more and more into movies, with family outings at Chinese New Year, but that doesn't seem to correlate with the level of movie production. For people outside the first-tier cities, watching a movie is more like a festival, and going to the cinema in the Spring Festival is more like going to have a good time, rather than what is really called "interest in watching a movie": watching whatever the cinema is showing, only having to use your brain to choose the one that looks more interesting.
The movie itself has become a pure expense and a pure pastime, and the meaning of the movie itself has become less important. What follows is a crisis, and as long as people can find more and newer pastimes, the significance of watching movies during the Spring Festival won't seem so important.
The Spring Festival can travel abroad, if more and more Chinese people are choosing to travel abroad, then the potential crowd of people watching the Spring Festival Gala as well as going to the theater to see the Spring Festival file of the crowd is lowered, of course, to wait until the Spring Festival of the residents of the third and fourth tier cities have to go to travel, it may be some time; Similarly, if more and more people in the country Spring Festival have other ways of entertainment, such as watching a certain hot drama, such as playing certain games, then naturally, the meaning of watching movies will not be so important. Likewise, if more and more Chinese people have other forms of entertainment, such as watching certain hot dramas or playing certain games, then naturally the number of people watching movies in the Spring Festival will be lower.
Of course, the fundamental reason behind the Spring Festival boom is the demographic dividend, and even if more and more people are drawn to other forms of entertainment, there will still be enough viewers to buy a movie ticket: so a major bottleneck for the Spring Festival is that the demographic dividend will no longer be enough to support the basic box office demand for the Spring Festival, and that's when the problem will arise.
At least for now, such a problem doesn't seem serious.
03
Changes in people's appreciation tastes
Last but not least, and a major hidden factor, are changes in the appreciation tastes and viewing levels of China's overall audience.
Imagine how much the box office would have been if a movie called "The Winds of Macau 4" had been released during this year's Spring Festival. No matter how much the publicity and development smashed and how many schedules were arranged, it is estimated that it would be comparable to "The Granddaddy 19".
The so-called third- and fourth-tier small-town youths are, to be honest, synonymous with "illiterates" or "fools" in the eyes of many industry insiders. But is that really the case?
At least in 2018, the tastes of small-town youths will improve and are improving, and while it's hard to expect them to develop a comprehensive critical mindset, it's not as if they can be fooled by any quality of movie entering the Spring Festival slot.
While the standard of Chinese movie production is still uneven, but at least the audience will get tired of the bad movies and understand them, so it is necessary to produce some "not so bad bad bad movies" to attract consumers.
Will the Chinese New Year bottleneck come?
One day a small town youth passes by a theater in his county, looks at a few posters, and shakes his head: "There's really nothing to see, it's just the same old thing, let's go home and eat chicken. "
If there is such a day, the Chinese movie industry and the market side can really appear qualitative changes, then the arrival of the Spring Festival bottleneck may be a good thing!