First, the Disney effect continues to appear, and the phenomenon of tourism overheating is evidence of economic malaise;

Second, the overall investment and consumption are sluggish, and we have to support the still strong tourism industry by stabilizing fares;

Third, the supervision has had a certain effect on the rectification and supervision of tourism, and the tourism cost has been effectively controlled;

Disney effect

The Disney effect means that during the economic depression, Disney's business is even more popular.

Because as an entertainment industry, it needs to consume residents' time. During the economic boom, all walks of life were busy increasing production and expanding. On the contrary, during the economic depression, due to the shrinking industry, residents have more travel time (no work to do or dismissal).

Secondly, the consumption of most entertainment projects is actually not high. Even a seemingly extravagant project like Disney is actually affordable for most people. Just like today's tourism industry, even ordinary wage earners still have the ability to travel.

Although the number of our trips is increasing every year, the growth of May Day holiday this year is extremely hot, which is not a phenomenal performance, which proves that the degree of economic malaise is further deepened. Judging from the ticket sales of this Dragon Boat Festival, this phenomenon is still deepening.

It can also be found from historical data that the economic growth rate is almost inversely proportional to the growth rate of tourists. When the GDP growth rate is high, the growth rate of travel will be low; However, when the GDP growth rate is low, the growth rate of travel is high.

The movie "The Bicycle Stealer" fully reflects this phenomenon. Poor families usually scrimp and save, and after losing their bicycles and job opportunities, they release their emotions and take their sons to high-end restaurants for consumption.

Similar economic principles also include lipstick effect, which means that the more depressed the economy is, the more lipstick sales increase.

The reason is that lipstick is a relatively cheap and necessary cosmetic. In fact, everyone can afford it. When the economy is depressed, people's income will decrease, and their desire to buy big brands will also decrease. At the same time, the degradation of consumption will lead people to take revenge on cheap products with their remaining consumption power, and the sales of lipstick and other items will increase.

The same principle is short hair effect and short skirt effect, which means that the more depressed the economy is, the shorter the length of girls' hair and skirts will be.

The reason is that when the economic crisis happened, people's income dropped sharply. In order to reduce the cost of taking care of headdress, women will choose to cut their hair short; At the same time, in order to increase their income as much as possible, women will take advantage of their innate advantages and dress themselves up more to get more convenience.

Tourism that stands out from the crowd

This year, our investment and consumption are still sluggish, and RMB deposits increased by nearly 10 trillion in the first quarter. It fully shows that the market has a strong sense of anti-risk, enterprises are unwilling to invest, residents are unwilling to spend, and they are only willing to deposit to protect their capital.

In this case, our monetary policy has failed continuously. Last year, the loan market quotation rate (lpr) was lowered three times, trying to stimulate the recovery of the property market and the real industry by reducing the loan cost. However, judging from the results, the property market is still in a downturn, the entity is still shrinking, and the real estate was returned to its original shape after a flash in the pan in February and March.

The property market is in a downturn, new energy cannot achieve economies of scale, chip semiconductors are stuck, artificial intelligence starts late, and the digital economy has not yet been rolled out. Therefore, the recovery of tourism is extremely valuable and a rare bright spot industry in the economic recession cycle, which must be protected.

Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the travel cost of residents and maintain the healthy growth of the industry through measures such as stabilizing fares. This Dragon Boat Festival is a crucial period to test residents' travel mood and the effect of policy support.

Supervision has achieved initial results

The phenomenon of high-priced machine, high-priced wine and unreasonable breach of contract has existed in tourism for a long time. In the long run, this is undoubtedly a setback for the tourism industry. In the current situation that other industries can't recover, the prosperity of tourism makes protection necessary. Especially judging from the popularity of May Day travel, illegal incidents may increase, so supervision must be strengthened.

This Dragon Boat Festival ticket price reduction reflects the effectiveness of supervision and rectification, and it is also the efforts made by local governments to promote tourism. This can protect the interests of travelers to a great extent and promote the healthy development of tourism.

However, the effectiveness of supervision still depends on the subsequent situation of the hotel industry and catering industry, whether there will be sky-high housing, whether there will be a large-scale breach of contract, and whether there will be sky-high meals.

In short, under the influence of Disney effect, this Dragon Boat Festival outing will continue to be popular; At the same time, because the Dragon Boat Festival is not as long as the May Day holiday, the total number of trips is not so much, and the degree of congestion is relatively good; In addition, due to the increase of supervision, the experience of residents' travel will be improved accordingly.