Since mid-August, South Korea has implemented stricter epidemic prevention measures, which has severely hit the retail and catering industries. Many small enterprises have gone bankrupt, while the business volume in the bankruptcy liquidation market has greatly increased. Relevant statistics show that in the first half of this year, the number of self-employed small enterprises in Korea decreased by 1.4 million, and the number of small enterprises as of June was 5.47 million.

the first stage is liquidity crisis. This is a linear crisis, which can be recovered through strong central bank and fiscal stimulus.

in the second stage, enterprises will enter the crisis of repayment and bankruptcy, which will bring about changes in the economic structure. If you go into strong recovery after the first stage, it may help zombie enterprises survive, so the second stage is particularly difficult for enterprises. There are always enterprises that can survive and there are always enterprises that will go bankrupt.

the third stage is recovery.

At present, governments all over the world print money to support liquidity, which has rebounded on a large scale, and there is no problem with liquidity. However, in the face of the long tail and fat tail of the epidemic, the long-term pressure on the economic recession and the changes in industrial structure, the question of whether enterprises can survive to the second stage is coming. The peak of enterprise bankruptcy will be concentrated in the next period.

according to the data, China's consumption in the first quarter fell sharply, and the rebound in the second quarter was mainly driven by investment, and consumption was still negative. This is the fundamental economic feature of China today and in the medium term to come. Economic growth slows down and income slows down.

as long as the epidemic situation is not controlled, people's consumption will be weak and it will not be easy to rebound. In the case of epidemic situation and resumption of work, activities will be reduced and generalized consumption will be generally weak. I have seen many people talk about retaliatory consumption, thinking that as soon as things get better, everyone will spend at once, but it is not so easy.

There are four profound structural changes caused by the epidemic:

1. The recovery of investment is stronger than the recovery of consumption;

2. The recovery of secondary industry/industry is stronger than that of tertiary industry/service industry;

3. The recovery of large and medium-sized enterprises is stronger than that of small and medium-sized enterprises;

4. Financial recovery is stronger than real economic recovery.

in the next six months or even eight months, what will the policy focus on? Financial order, technological manufacturing, small and medium-sized enterprises and the real economy, service industry and tertiary industry. This is also the most important thing that the Central Committee emphasized in a series of recent meetings in the next six months or even twelve months and five years.

what can we do when the external environment is in a great earthquake? Slowly depressed with the enterprise, passively shuffled? During this period, business owners will face business reduction, turning profits into losses; Staff are paid less or even unemployed. This extremely painful process may even change the fate of a lifetime.

it is not difficult to find out that there are some opportunities for outlet because of the structural changes above the fine products. First, there are suggestions for financial industry resources to quickly lay out the business of the financial industry. At the policy level, due to various policies, there is no shortage of funds, but funds are unwilling to enter industries with lower returns and are more willing to invest; Second, the service industry (except those with core competitiveness) should stop loss in time, and the big environment will be repaired. After the overall income of residents is restored, they will choose to return to the market. After all, it takes time to return blood. Third, look for trends, create traffic, design scenarios, build your own new business model, and win by surprise.