China Wealth Net News (He Miao) Recently, China Wealth Management 50 People's Forum hosted a seminar on "The Third Quarter Macroeconomic Situation and the Feeling of the Micro Subjects", inviting the relevant persons in charge of the regulatory departments, representatives of industry associations and real enterprises, representatives of financial institutions, experts and scholars, to discuss in-depth how to understand the The third quarter of the macroeconomic situation, analyze the impact of dual-control policies and the current real estate market situation, in-depth discussions for the decision makers to follow up on the development of macro-control policies, the orderly promotion of the "dual-control of energy consumption" policy, and actively guard against economic and financial risks to provide advice and suggestions.
The meeting concluded that the third quarter of China's economy in general tends to be weak, exports are still resilient, but investment, consumption, industry and other economic indicators have declined significantly, the economy fell faster than in the previous period. Due to the tightening of real estate regulation and "double control of energy consumption" and other factors, the demand side of the economy and the supply side at the same time show contraction. Although the monetary and credit expansion of the future of China's domestic demand has a certain support, but exports are expected to slow down, taking into account the extent of the current round of supply contraction and the difficulty of credit expansion, the future economic downward pressure will continue into the first half of next year.
Participants reflected that the "dual-control energy consumption" policy has a greater impact: the power industry reflects the pressure of large-scale losses in thermal power outstanding; cement industry in the product price increases under the industry's efficiency improvement; non-ferrous industry price increases and cost increases coexist; petrochemical industry in the rising costs and power restrictions under the face of severe challenges; ship industry in the power restrictions can not deliver. Shipbuilding industry is unable to deliver under the influence of power limitation. At the same time, some of the representatives said that the recent real estate industry boom degree of rapid decline in the real estate market is facing more risk factors, triggered by a single enterprise industry and regional financial risks need to be highly vigilant. -The third quarter of the macroeconomic situation and the micro subject feeling
First, the current macroeconomic situation analysis and outlook
The third quarter of China's exports are still resilient, but the investment, consumption, industry and other economic indicators are clearly down, the pace of decline is faster than in the previous period. Due to the real estate control and "double control of energy consumption" and other factors, demand and supply showed a simultaneous contraction of the situation. Considering the extent of the current round of supply contraction and the difficulty of credit expansion, the future economic downward pressure will continue into the first half of next year.
(1) The downward pressure on the economy increased in the third quarter
Since the third quarter, the export growth rate has remained high, but the growth rate of value added in industry, the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets and other major economic indicators showed a significant decline, the PMI index continued to decline, the pressure of economic growth slowdown has generally increased. The PMI index has continued to decline, and the pressure of economic growth slowdown has generally intensified. The unemployment rate of young people is still at a high level, and policy adjustments in the education and training industry have triggered the reallocation of labor supply and demand in local areas. While the CPI index remains weak, the PPI index has further widened, and mid- and downstream industries, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have been squeezed by the rising cost of raw materials and weak demand, and have experienced shrinkage in their profit margins.
(2) Demand and supply show double contraction
Supply side, the impact of the energy consumption constraints are systematic and global. The "dual-control" policy, by pulling the plug on the impact of power restrictions, production stoppage, the recent up to steel, coal, chemical, metallurgy, cement, down to the power, automotive, textile and clothing, and other industries start rate of a sharp decline. At the same time, the price of related industrial products climbed again. Comparing the rise in industrial prices and the decline in capacity utilization, the impact of this round of "dual-control energy consumption" or significantly stronger than the 2016-2017 "supply-side reform" period. In the first half of this year, China's industrial production to maintain a high level, the country's 19 provinces "double control of energy consumption" assessment failed to meet the standard. In the second half of the year, the task of pressure down around the arduous task, is expected before the end of the year, industrial production may be a significant decline.
Demand side, car sales, by the impact of the chip shortage, passenger car sales of commercial vehicles are declining, in August, the month of year-on-year decline of about 18%. It is expected that September will not be lower than the rate of decline in August, and may even expand. In terms of real estate sales, real estate sales fell 10% and 18% in July and August, respectively. Considering the lag of the government's online data, the actual real estate transactions after July showed a "cut". Consumption, consumption growth showed a downturn in August, consumption growth fell faster, appearing in many years very low growth rate. In particular, food and beverage consumption, by August for the pre-epidemic 75% or so, down 10 percentage points from July.
(C) economic stabilization time or will be delayed
From the external demand, global manufacturing PMI and other leading indicators predicted that the high point of global demand has appeared. At the same time, the repair of overseas demand has begun to shift from commodity consumption to service consumption, China's export growth rate may follow overseas commodity consumption and decline. Delta epidemic in Southeast Asia and other countries in the spread of China's orders, but Southeast Asia's resumption of production is accelerating, China's export share of the rise is not sustainable. Superimposed on the base effect, the export growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to decline.
Domestic demand, despite the decline in interest rates, but at the same time the growth of money, credit and social financing slowed down at the same time, the "quantity and price" shows that the demand for monetary and credit expansion is insufficient Money and credit and social financing growth of the credit expansion of the basis of the deterioration of the difficulty to increase domestic demand The first step is to make sure that you have the best possible chance of getting the best out of your money.
The impact of the dual-control policy
"14th Five-Year Plan" is still a critical period and window to achieve peak carbon, dual-control of energy consumption is an important initiative to achieve peak carbon. The micro-body of the participants generally reflected that the "dual-control of energy consumption" policy has a greater impact on their production and operation, and called for the current policy to be adjusted. There are two main reasons: one is the impact of the policy of limiting electricity. The other is the high price of coal. According to estimates, thermal power break-even point for coal prices for 500-600 dollars, but now coal prices have reached 1500 dollars, folded into the actual power supply coal costs will be higher, thermal power companies in the hair of a power loss of 10 cents of the situation.
Representatives proposed by the state "to improve the intensity of energy consumption and the total amount of dual-control degree program" and other policies, the power industry will face a clear differentiation of the situation. First, the traditional thermal power field in the dual control, the future development will face more difficult challenges. The dual-control program clearly points out that we must resolutely control high energy consumption and high emissions projects, and strengthen the management of the window guidance implementation list. As China's fossil energy consumption still accounts for half of the energy consumption, double control measures are expected to be introduced to the fossil energy consumption control assessment indicators, and the provinces of the energy elements of high-quality equipment and the depth of mining energy-saving potential will be as important as the content of the assessment indicators, which is the traditional electric power industry will be faced with the urgent situation. The second is that the new energy generation field in the double control measures, may usher in further development. The dual-control program at the national level to set aside a certain amount of total indicators, this part of the elasticity of the indicators may be used for energy consumption of new energy areas of the upstream manufacturing industry, which led to the new energy power generation field of the overall cost of the decline. At the same time, the new dual-control program can more encourage local governments to renewable energy consumption. Combined with the recent launch of the green power policy, green power trading as the most important voucher for the consumption of renewable energy, the future volume of transactions and transaction prices are expected to usher in a substantial increase in favor of the development of new energy industry.
(2) Cement industry: price increase under the industry benefit improvement
Participants believe that cement as a serious overcapacity of the industry, production restrictions can effectively improve the market supply and demand contradiction, so as to improve the industry's operating efficiency. The reason is mainly due to three aspects: First, the cement industry products are highly homogenized. Cement is produced according to national standards. Second, the sales radius of cement is very small. As a quasi non-trade goods, once the supply limit then the price is bound to rise. Third, the demand is rigid. Once the scale of infrastructure construction is determined, the demand for cement is fixed, not due to the price of cement and change the quantity. Overall, the dual-control policy on energy consumption has a positive impact on the cement industry, this year, the cement industry benefits may be the same as last year or better than last year.
Participants in the dual-control implementation of the two proposals: First, dual-control accounting based on the GDP growth rate, according to the actual growth of GDP has some flexibility to adjust, not simply tied to the target GDP. Secondly, dual-control method to be more scientific. Cement in May and June ushered in the peak season, followed by the off-season, so the cement industry should be corresponding to the "dual-control" peak adjustment, such as the first quarter of the peak, the winter peak, to the fall is not peak.
(C) non-ferrous industry: price increases and rising costs co-exist
Representatives of the recent non-ferrous industry is facing a more complex situation. First, colored industry product prices there is a substantial increase in the phenomenon. Aluminum prices, for example, from the first quarter of this year began to appear the price of a substantial increase in the magnitude and duration of price increases are unprecedented. Price increases in the non-ferrous industry profits face a certain degree of thickening opportunities. Secondly, the cost of non-ferrous industry is facing a sharp increase. In particular, electrolytic aluminum consumes a lot of electricity, and higher coal prices and tighter policies have led to a sharp rise in its costs.
Participants believe that the current non-ferrous enterprises in the better profit period, should do everything possible to protect the production, to achieve profits. However, due to the late August NDRC issued a ladder tariffs and preferential tariffs cancellation, the aluminum industry also needs to focus on how to reduce power consumption, reduce emissions. It is recommended that localities should be more precise in their regulation and control, and different measures are recommended for enterprises with high energy consumption in different ways of electricity.
(4) Petrochemical industry: the industry chain is facing serious challenges
Participants believe that the current "double control" measures on the petrochemical industry chain to produce serious challenges.
First, the petrochemical textile industry chain product price system is gradually out of control. Fossil energy prices have repeatedly hit record highs, resulting in the upstream mega-refining, petrochemicals, chemical companies more concentrated profits, but the downstream end-product prices are sluggish, polyester, fibers, materials, textile industry profits are severely compressed, the pressure to survive continues to increase.
The second is that dual control of energy consumption affects the integrity of the entire petrochemical textile industry chain. The widespread implementation of power restrictions, production cuts, shutdowns directly reduces the capacity utilization rate of the petrochemical textile industry, slowing down the pace of capacity renewal and energy efficiency. There is no longer a new energy consumption target, resulting in a large number of new projects to suspend the approval of the energy assessment or non-approval, or even called a halt after the start of construction, directly inhibiting the development of petrochemical textile downstream industries. In order to "double control" to meet the standard, the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in the country "two high" restriction directory on the basis of the "two high" scope is constantly expanding "two high", a number of regions will not be part of the chemical industry directory of downstream industry The company's newest product is a new product that will be launched in the next few years, and it will be a new product that will be launched in the next few years.
Thirdly, the petrochemical industry chain from basic chemicals, primary chemicals to fine chemicals, chemical new materials to extend the development will be affected. With the normalization of the "double control" measures, the extension of the petrochemical industry chain, especially from basic chemicals, primary chemicals to fine chemicals, chemical industry, the development of new materials, by the serious shortage of energy factors, limiting the development of space, the extension of the chain, make up for the chain, the chain, the chain of solid, the chain of stronger more difficult.
Participating companies for the petrochemical industry, dual-control of energy consumption recommendations, there are three main aspects:
First, energy supply system first set up and then broken. At present, the overall pattern of energy supply is fossil energy is still the main force, the new energy supply is insufficient, especially to ensure that the industrial production of stable new energy is seriously insufficient. Therefore, dual control should take into account the economic development and industrial upgrading of the rigid demand for energy and energy structure of the imbalance and other objective factors, can not be a one-size-fits-all production restrictions and shutdowns. The structural reform of the energy supply side must be synchronized with the reform of the energy demand side, the substantial optimization of energy supply and utilization must rely on technical support.
Third, the whole life cycle management of the petrochemical textile industry chain of energy demand and carbon emissions. Optimize the regional layout of the industry chain at the national level, and improve the concentration of dominant industries and the balanced extension of the industry chain. Manage energy utilization and carbon emissions according to the full life cycle of the manufacturing chain, carry out full life cycle management, extend to the consumer side, and manage according to the carbon footprint.
(E) Shipbuilding industry: power limitations affect on-time delivery
Participating enterprises pointed out that "dual-control of energy consumption" in the context of pulling the gate and restricting the power and other measures on the production of enterprises has caused a greater impact. Ship enterprises can start working time is greatly reduced, workers can not work three or four days a week, there is not enough time to complete the product, the order in the delivery period can not be delivered. If the strict power limitation policy continues to be implemented, the impact will be extended to the entire industry. In particular, if foreign customers think that our enterprises due to power limitations and can not meet the delivery date, may have a negative effect on the image of China's shipbuilding enterprises, the future of the enterprise to obtain orders, expand the scale of the face of greater difficulties.
Participants suggested more precise implementation of the "dual-control". Considering the actual situation of the current economic development, we can't sacrifice the short-term economic benefits for the realization of the long-term "dual-carbon" goal. To avoid indiscriminate power restrictions, the implementation of "dual-control" policies should take into account the size of the enterprise, business development, and more precise policy for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Three, the real estate market situation
(a) real estate boom quickly fell
real estate turnover quickly fell.
National commercial real estate sales area fell by 8.5% year-on-year in July and by 15.6% year-on-year in August, a significant increase in the rate of decline. Key monitoring of the fifty cities the situation is even more serious, in August, the average monthly area of new housing transactions fell more than 20% year-on-year, the second-hand housing fell 40%. in September during the Mid-Autumn Festival, the major cities are down 60%, and in some cases even 70%, which is significantly different from the previous year's Mid-Autumn Festival turnover of a small peak. It is expected that September-October may see consecutive double-digit declines.
Land transactions continue to be sluggish. 300 key cities in the first half of the land supply and transactions are down. The first batch of centralized land supply market is very hot, but the second batch of centralized land supply, despite the decline in land costs, the market transaction in July-August is still relatively sluggish. At present, the second batch of concentrated land supply in 12 cities, the turnover of the situation is not good, the abortive auction abortive bidding off more, the land market cooling faster.
Enterprise micro-level feeling more pessimistic. Large enterprises have some different degrees of trepidation, medium-sized enterprises are generally more pessimistic, private and small enterprises are basically choosing to lie flat. From the recent second batch of land supply to take the situation, the central state-owned enterprises are relatively active, but the local state-owned enterprises are also active because there are some government did the work, the enterprise itself is not high enthusiasm.
(2) The main difficulties faced by the real estate industry
Participants believe that, with the deepening of real estate regulation, the real estate market downward pressure. The real estate industry's current difficulties are mainly a variety of regulatory restrictions on the concentration of policy head-to-head.
In addition to the "three red lines" and "two concentrations" of the constraints on the financing of real estate enterprises, the policy constraints also include:
First, some of the cities to limit the purchase of the policy of the layers of encoding.
The second thing is to limit the number of signatures and the price. Local governments in order to achieve the goal of home price control, high-priced houses sold after the network is not allowed to sign, can not objectively and realistically reflect the real estate transactions, but also cover up the actual situation of the rise and fall of prices. At the same time can't net signature can't handle mortgage loans, is bound to affect the return and sales. Restrictions under the constraints of the house price remains unchanged, but once the release of the restriction of the house price will also rise, the impact on the control of house prices. Some places have introduced a second-hand guide price, reducing the flow of second-hand houses, and affecting the entire real estate market liquidity.
Third, the loan amount limit. Development loan quota restrictions affect the scale of investment in real estate enterprises, increasing the risk of investment, and thus the average land auction rate rose to about 30%, which has never been seen before. Residents to buy a home loan no quota and loan interest rates rose, limiting the actual demand for home purchases, a certain degree also hedged off the profit margins of the reduction of housing prices. At present, only a few major banks have mortgage loan quota, joint-stock banks and small banks have stopped.
Fourth, more restrictions on land. Centralized land supply, own funds and other restrictions on the enthusiasm of enterprises to take land. The pace of land acquisition affects the subsequent supply of the real estate market, and the entire rhythm of the cycle has a certain impact.
In addition, the cost of real estate enterprises in the continued increase in aluminum, steel, cement and other building materials are rising prices, while the real estate market downturn, real estate enterprises are also facing the challenge of profit margins continue to be compressed.
(C) the risk factors embedded in the real estate market
First, the business risk of real estate enterprises. "Three red lines", "two concentration" and other control policies make real estate enterprises to a certain extent lost part of the financing function. From the financing side of the enterprise, the major banks on the mortgage loan control is more stringent, the regulation of pre-sale funds is equally severe, superimposed on Evergrande's debt crisis and other major events, real estate enterprises are facing major financing problems. Relative to last year's situation, the current possibility of real estate enterprises downgrade has been very limited. In the case of a rapid decline in sales returns, even if the previous operating sound real estate enterprises will have operational problems.
The second is the potential risk that housing cannot be delivered. It is estimated that Evergrande did not deliver the house is about 160 million square meters, corresponding to 1.3 million sets of houses not delivered, affecting more than 1.3 million families, the impact is greater. If sales decline at the current rate, there may be more cases of undeliverable houses.
Four policy recommendations
(1) Integrate long-term and short-term, taking into account the carbon emissions reduction and stabilization of growth objectives
As the world's largest developing country, China is still in the industrialization stage, the demand for energy and electricity will continue to rise, economic development and carbon emissions still The first step in the process is to create a new, more efficient, and more effective way to reduce the risk of damage to the environment. It is recommended to set energy consumption and carbon reduction targets in a more scientific way, and to balance the pace of operation, so as to avoid excessive short-term impacts of carbon reduction as much as possible.
(2) Strengthen the coordination of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policies
The design of cross-cyclical policies focuses on the improvement of the quality of economic development in the medium and long term, while counter-cyclical adjustments emphasize the stabilization of short-term economic growth. As China's economy gradually enters a period of innovation-driven transition, the difficulty of converting new and old kinetic energy will continue to rise, and it is more important to balance the relationship between cross-cycle and counter-cycle regulation. In the current situation of increasing downward pressure on the economy, more attention should be paid to the use of counter-cyclical adjustment measures. It is recommended that while adjusting and optimizing industry policies, we increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of macro policy, especially fiscal policy, accelerate the progress of expenditure and debt issuance, drive the growth of relevant credit and social financing scale, and form physical investment as soon as possible; further strengthen the tax exemption for downstream small and micro-enterprises as well as subsidies to support the rising costs and restricted demand. At the same time monetary policy to maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity, guide the real economy, especially small and micro-enterprise financing costs further down, accelerate the implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools to take effect.
(C) Improve the relevance and precision of the "dual-control" policy
Optimize the allocation of "dual-control" targets for energy consumption, for which the intensity of energy consumption meets the target. At the same time, implementation of the process of local conditions, take full account of the production cycle of different regional industries and product characteristics, strengthen policy communication and coordination, as far as possible to minimize the impact on the normal production and business order of market players, targeted, planned "dual-control". The study will gradually unify the energy consumption control index into the carbon emission reduction control index.