1. Overview of supply and demand of commercial real estate in Guangzhou

1. Both supply and demand of commercial real estate are booming

In recent two years, the construction of large commercial squares, five-star hotels, service apartments, office buildings, professional markets and other commercial real estate projects in Guangzhou has continued, and many large real estate developers in Guangzhou have devoted themselves to developing commercial real estate projects.

according to the transaction data of shops in Guangzhou in recent seven years published by Guangzhou Municipal Bureau of Land and Housing Management at the end of 2114, from 1998 to the first half of 2114, the supply of shops in the old eight districts of Guangzhou was 2.625 million square meters, with a turnover of 2.2196 million square meters, and the gap between supply and demand was 411,111 square meters. Since 2111, Guangzhou shops have changed from "supply exceeds demand" to "demand exceeds supply", and this phenomenon became more obvious in the first half of 2114.

2. The market has obviously turned hot

In the first quarter of p>2114, the supply of shops in the former eight districts of Guangzhou was 82,911 square meters, but the turnover reached 133,311 square meters. As for the price, from 1998 to 2112, the selling price of shops fluctuated steadily at the level of 13,111 yuan/square meter, but fell sharply in 2113. The main reason was that a large number of shops in Dongshan District sold in wholesale form in 2113, which lowered the average transaction price of shops as a whole. By the first quarter of 2114, the overall price of shops in the old eight districts had risen to 16,489 yuan/square meter, and the shop market had obviously turned hot.

II. Distribution of commercial areas in Guangzhou

III. Introduction of commercial and commercial projects in various business districts:

1. Shangxiajiu business district:

(1) Liwan Plaza: Liwan Plaza has a business area of 1.4 million square meters and is divided into south atrium and north atrium. Area C (south atrium in areas C and D) near Shangxiajiu Pedestrian Street is a comprehensive shopping mall with a price of about RMB 151 per square meter. The rent of the 3rd floor in the North Area A and B is relatively higher than that in the South Atrium, and it is a jewelry and crystal wholesale market. Area E, which connects the north and south atrium, is also positioned as a professional jewelry and crystal market. The price in this area is relatively low, ranging from 38-41 yuan per square meter.

(2) Minghui Mall: Minghui Mall is a model shopping mall designated for Xiajiu Road Commercial Pedestrian Street. The brands that have entered Minghui are Weiwen, Jiangnan Buyi, Moon Island, etc., and the brands that will enter in succession are McDonald's, ampm, cobbler's family, Laiersian, Florence, crocodile shirt, Joy&; Peace, Oriental Glasses, Guoxin Communication, etc. Its first-floor street shops are priced at 1 million yuan each.

2. Beijing Road Business Circle:

(1) Guangbai New Wing: Guangbai New Wing is located on the west side of Guangzhou Department Store on Beijing Road, covering a total area of about 6,511 square meters, with a total shopping area of 45,111 square meters and a total height of 27 floors. The tower is an office building. In addition, there is a four-story parking lot with about 511 parking spaces. Guangbai New Wing "Charming City" shopping mall takes fashion as its theme. The shopping mall adopts independent shop design, with 1-9 floors parallel to Guangbai, fully open shop layout, unified management by Guangbai, and special Chinese and western restaurants, game rooms, Internet cafes, etc. The rental price is 55 yuan/m2.

(2) Mingsheng Plaza: Mingsheng Plaza is located opposite Guangzhou Department Store on Beijing Road, Guangzhou, with a total construction area of 1.41 million square meters. It is a commercial building integrating shopping, entertainment, catering, leisure and culture, with a nine-story commercial area of 71,111 square meters, a 21-story office building of 41,111 square meters and a three-story parking lot of 31,111 square meters. There are 611 parking spaces. The rental price is around RMB 111/／m2／/month.

3. Huanshi Road Business Circle:

(1) Friendship Store: The head office of Friendship Store located on Huanshi East Road has its own business area of 21,111 square meters and deals in more than 81,111 kinds of goods. In the ongoing upgrading project of "upgrading to promote taste and accelerating development through transformation", Friendship Shopping Mall has actively extended its "left hand"-the "left hand" is connected to the air corridor of the World Trade Center, and the "westward expansion project" initiated by the "right hand" is connected to the buildings of baiyun hotel and Liberty Plaza, creating an international boutique shopping circle with Guangzhou Friendship Huanshi East Head Office as the center.

(2) Lipper Plaza: a high-end boutique shopping mall located next to baiyun hotel on Huanshi East Road, together with the famous five-star garden hotel, four-star baiyun hotel, Friendship Store and World Trade Center shopping mall, * * * constitutes the top shopping and leisure business circle of high-end brands in Guangzhou. Liberty Plaza is a high-end shopping mall with the largest number of top brands in the world in Guangzhou, including: Louis Vuitton, Hermès, Prada, Dior, Fendi, Celine, Burberry, Hugo Boss, Lanvin, Ermenegildo Zegna, Givenchy, Polo Ralph Lauren, Versace, Charriol, Tommy Hilfiger, D&; G and Versus, etc. Among many top brands, Hermès, Prada, Celine, Hugo Boss, Versace and D& G。 In addition, Park Plaza also has a number of image shops with new design concepts, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Prada, Ermenegildo Zegna and Givenchy. Because of the connection with Friendship Store, the two forms a Guangzhou high-end clothing boutique monopoly market. Therefore, the rental price of Lipper Plaza is soaring, reaching 1,811 yuan/month on the first floor, which is nearly half higher than the average rental price of 1,111-1,211 yuan/month for shops in the same area.

4. Tianhe Business Circle:

(1) Tianhe City: Tianhe City Plaza has a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, a construction area of 1.6 million square meters and a business area of 1.1 million square meters. There are 7 floors above ground and 3 floors underground, and the open square in the north covers an area of more than 3,111 square meters. Tianhe City Plaza Project is a trinity building, which consists of Tianhe City (shopping center), office building (east tower) and apartment hotel (west tower).

Tianhe City was completed and opened on February 9, 1996. It is the first modern large-scale shopping center in Guangzhou, which has achieved the greatest success in operation so far, integrating shopping, food, entertainment, leisure and service. The rental rate reaches 111%, which has become a new hot spot for citizens to shop and relax and a new attraction for tourists to visit. Since 2111, the annual rent of its shopping malls has been stable at around 211-311 million yuan.

after ten years of operation, Tianhe city, which integrates shopping, sightseeing, food, entertainment, leisure, business, advertising, information, exhibition, recreation and other functions, is known as the "No.1 shopping mall in China". At present, the average daily passenger flow of Tianhe city has reached 311,111, and the highest day has reached 811,111. Tianhe City's annual turnover is about 4 billion yuan. It not only promoted the prosperity of the surrounding areas, but also created a large number of successful business owners. The "Tianhe City Effect" brought by the success of Tianhe City has affected the whole province and even the whole country, making it the symbol of modern business in Guangzhou, the first choice place for citizens and tourists to shop, visit and relax, the object of study by relevant departments and news media, and the goal of catching up with peers.

(2) Zhengjia Plaza

is known as Zhengjia Plaza, the largest shopping mall in China and the largest in Asia, with a total land area of 5.41 square meters and a total construction area of 396,111 square meters. The commercial area under construction is 281,111 square meters; Long-term planning and construction of 48-storey office buildings and 31-storey serviced apartments, with a construction area of 1.16 million square meters. From the date of construction, Zhengjia has played a good role in driving the land around the project. After opening on October 5, 2115, although the number of shops opened on the first day was less than 11%, it still attracted wide attention from the industry and all walks of life.

Located on the 7th floor of Zhengjia Plaza, the central axis of Guangzhou, more than 1,111 business giants have joined, including the largest CEPA zero-tariff trade zone in Guangzhou and some flagship international brands that have entered the domestic market for the first time. There are Grade A office buildings and five-star international hotel apartments in the east and west towers of the square.

In addition, there are 111,111 square meters indoor Disney-style amusement park, Venice floating restaurant, musical fountain exhibition, aquarium, Children's R Us, Lingnan Style Street and other leisure and dining places. Zhengjia Plaza takes experiential shopping as its theme, adopts a theatrical commercial space layout, and designs a daily customer flow of 811,111 people. It is a super-large shopping center integrating shopping, leisure, entertainment, catering, recreation and business.

IV. Development Trend of Commercial Real Estate in Guangzhou

On February 11, 2114, China's commercial retail industry was fully opened to the outside world, and more and more international merchants began to enter the China market. As a metropolis in the south of China, Guangzhou will become the first choice for international and local businesses to compete for the market. Therefore, in 2115, Guangzhou's commercial real estate is facing great opportunities. Taken together, we believe that there will be the following development trends:

1. The stronger the commercial real estate development company, the more intensified the process.

In 2115, with the gradual implementation of various domestic commercial real estate control policies, especially the improvement of real estate credit threshold and the Regulations on Urban Commercial Network Planning,

after the threshold of commercial real estate is raised, many small companies with no or weak development strength will be eliminated. At the same time, the development concentration of large companies with strong strength will be greatly improved. For example, the development of nearly ten commercial projects of R&F Group will quickly establish its position as a strong commercial real estate in Guangzhou, improve the blind situation of commercial real estate investment and development, and further improve the level of commercial real estate development.

2. Guangzhou's commercial real estate market will welcome more foreign customers

With the complete opening of China's commercial retail industry on February 11, 2114, China's commercial market is attracting the attention of more and more international businesses, and finding commercial real estate projects suitable for businesses' development has become the basis for many domestic and foreign businesses to expand their scale and occupy the market.

As the gateway to South China, Guangzhou has unparalleled attraction in this respect: in 2115, Guangzhou will become an important position for foreign commercial retail to further expand to China, and the demand for commercial real estate will further expand. As most of these businesses are internationally renowned businesses, the selection criteria for commercial properties will be stricter, and projects with good property structure applicability and superior location will be sought after, which will also promote the development of commercial real estate in Guangzhou to a higher level on the other hand.

3. Community commerce is booming

In p>2115 and in the future, Guangzhou's community commerce will show great development potential: community commerce, led by community businesses and relatively concentrated block commerce, will not only promote the prosperity and prosperity of urban commerce, but also pay more attention to the construction of commercial and living service facilities that meet the daily needs of ordinary people.

For example, the block businesses of Junjing Garden, Xinghewan, Qifu New Village and Lijiang Garden have all become successful models of community businesses and won unanimous praise from the industry. It can be predicted that in Guangzhou, some commercial forms suitable for community commercial development, including community shopping centers, neighborhood centers and modern life squares, will develop rapidly and gradually become new highlights in commercial real estate.

4. Long-term benefits will become the most important concern of developers.

The success of Tianhe City in Guangzhou is the success of the rental business, which has been widely recognized by the industry. With the rational return of commercial real estate operation mode, there will be more and more leasing-oriented operation modes, and the proportion will be higher and higher. Developers will increasingly realize that it is unrealistic to pursue short-term profit, and obtaining reasonable income and long-term benefits will make the market development more orderly.

For example, Guangzhou Tianhe Zhengjia Plaza, which officially opened at the end of 2114, has a commercial area of 411,111 square meters, most of which are leased, which is convenient for the unified management of developers, and at the same time, developers can obtain long-term benefits through leasing. Another example is the Guangbai New Wing operated by Lingjun. Except for the first and second floors, the third and first to ninth floors are all used for rental operation, which has brought long-term and stable income to developers.

5. Increase in development volume and diversification of types

With the prosperity of commercial real estate in Guangzhou, more Guangzhou real estate developers, especially large-scale brand real estate enterprises, have "transformed" from pure residential development to commercial real estate management, and stepped up their efforts in commercial real estate development. Therefore, the development volume of commercial real estate in Guangzhou will increase sharply in 2115, and at the same time, the development types will be diversified from simple office buildings, shops and professional markets.

It is reported that a high-grade commercial real estate project of Hesheng in Yuehua Road is stepping up construction; Poly Group's Poly International Plaza, which is located next to Pazhou Convention and Exhibition Center as a super grade A office building, has also laid the foundation stone and will be put into use in 2116. Swire Group has a commercial project with an investment of 4 billion yuan and more than 211,111 square meters in Tianhe, Guangzhou. Huahua World, a large comprehensive shopping center located in Dongpu, with a total construction area of 271,111 square meters, is currently under construction. Hesheng Chuangzhan will also launch a shop area of more than 111,111 square meters in 2115. There are also many commercial sites in Zhujiang New Town that have been requisitioned by major real estate developers. Only R&F Group has taken seven commercial sites in Zhujiang New Town. In addition, there are urban construction group, Times Development Group, China Shipping Group, Lixun Industrial Co., Ltd. and other shops are or will soon be launched in the market. It can be seen that many commercial projects will be launched in 2115, and the product types will be diversified.

6. "conjoined shopping mall" will become the development trend of commercial real estate in Guangzhou

Guangzhou already has an air corridor connecting Friendship Shopping Mall and World Trade Center in the east, and an "expansion in the west" connecting baiyun hotel Qunlou and Lipper Plaza, creating a "business merger model" of an international boutique shopping circle with Guangzhou Friendship Huanshi East Head Office as the center, which has achieved good commercial results.

At present, the relevant commercial departments have put forward the strategic idea of "hand in hand" the two shopping centers on the central axis of Guangzhou New City-Tianhe Plaza and Zhengjia Plaza to form the largest conjoined mall in China. Although it is still in the stage of approval and has not been formally implemented, from the perspective of market prospect and business circle building, this idea undoubtedly reveals that a conjoined mall will become the information of the new development trend of commercial real estate in Guangzhou.

-----------. In the first year of 2116, the rental price of office buildings in the central area showed a trend of collective decline. Is this a lack of stamina in the office market or a bottleneck in leasing?

The office building in the central area is the highest in the city

When talking about the future trend of office buildings in the central area of Dongguan, Chen Minqiang, the person in charge of Hefei Huihuang, who is in charge of the Hongxi Center project, said that Guangzhou and Shenzhen did not expect the office market in Tianhe and Huaqiang to be so prosperous today more than a decade ago. Similarly, Dongguan