On October 31th, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed up 2.16%, and the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index rose 2.77%.
Automotive and online education stocks rose sharply, with Xpeng Motors rising by over 16%, Geely Automobile rising by over 11% and New Oriental Online rising by over 8%.
catering and paper stocks rose. Naixue's tea rose by over 17%, Haidilao rose by over 15% and Liwen Paper rose by over 7%.
Popular technology stocks generally rose, with Bili Bili rising by over 16%, GCL-Tech rising by over 11%, Meituan rising by over 5%, JD.COM Group, Baidu Group and Xiaomi Group rising by over 3%.
The housing stocks and agricultural products sectors fell, with Hongjiu Fruit Industry falling by over 11%, New Town Development falling by over 7%, Hesheng Chuangzhan Group and Rongxin China falling by over 6%. Institutional discussion on the market
Zhongtai International: Hong Kong stocks are about to bottom out. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will break through 21,111 points next year.
Recently, Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply. At that time, the market experienced a sharp drop in October 2122, and the mood was extremely pessimistic, including capital flow, valuation, market width, emotional aspect and technical aspects. However, the mood improved and the market showed an oversold rebound.
Zhongtai International pointed out that the rebound of Hong Kong stocks is mainly due to the emotional improvement and short positions after the introduction of mainland policies, and the structure is unstable. It is predicted that the profit will gradually turn to an inflection point in the third quarter of next year. The bottom of the Hong Kong stock market is six to twelve months ahead of the bottom of the profit, and the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year is the window for the market to bottom out.
At the same time, regarding the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, which is concerned about the market, Zhongtai International pointed out that the slowdown of interest rate hike will reduce the squeeze of interest rate on the valuation of growth stocks, and it is expected that the growth stocks that have fallen excessively will rebound, but more opportunities will come from the fall of the US dollar index and the US debt interest rate in the second half of the year.
the fed's slowing down the pace of raising interest rates does not mean ending the tightening cycle, nor does it mean turning to easing. raising interest rates and shrinking the table will reduce the liquidity of the US dollar, maintain a high interest rate level for a long time, and at the same time promote the first return of funds to the bond market instead of the stock market.
Zhongtai International pointed out that it is still necessary to guard against the decline in profitability of US stocks at the beginning of next year, and the risk spillover of US debt liquidity will also affect Hong Kong stocks.
There has been an emotional sell-off in the Hang Seng Index, which indicates that the market is about to bottom out.
This round of bear market is a compound bear market, dominated by internal and external factors, which has gone through more than 411 trading days and lasted for the longest time. The decline reached 52.8%, which is comparable to the US debt bear market in 1994 and the explosion of the 2111 branch network. The low point of the index is also 28.3% lower than the 211-day moving average, exceeding the historical average.
The decline slope of Hang Seng Index increased, and on October 24th, there was a decline caused by forced liquidation or emotional venting of investors' positions, which indicated that the decline would enter the final stage and often indicated that the market was about to bottom out.
The Hang Seng Index has fallen below the important support of the logarithmic channel, and there is a great probability of rebound in the market outlook
From the perspective of linear regression of logarithmic equation, the Hang Seng Index has been in a long-term upward trend in the past 31 years. At present, the Hang Seng Index has fallen below the 95% pessimistic line (about 2.5% probability) of the logarithmic channel in 5 years and 31 years respectively, which statistically indicates that the index has a great probability of rebound.
It is predicted that the fluctuation range of the Hang Seng Index in 2123 will be between 15218 and 22912 points
The average forecast PE of the Hang Seng Index in the past ten years is 1.5 times, but the valuation center of the Hang Seng Index will move down in the next two years, making it difficult to return to the previous level, mainly due to the wide settlement of overseas central banks and high interest rates reducing liquidity; The international geopolitical situation is getting tense; Foreign capital reduces Hong Kong stock positions; The economic growth rate in the Mainland is a step lower than that in the past decade.
At present, the market predicts that the earnings per share of the Hang Seng Index will increase by 15.1% in 2123. However, considering the impact of the economic recession in Europe and the United States on China's economy next year, the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control in stages lags behind the fundamental benefits, and there is still room for downward adjustment in the earnings forecast.
assuming that the earnings per share will increase by +5%/+11%/+12%/+15% respectively in 2123, it is estimated that the interest rate (risk-free interest rate) of the U.S. 11-year bonds will be 3.5% at the end of next year, and the potential volatility of the Hang Seng Index in 2123 will be calculated through the PE and equity risk premium models.
Zhongtai International predicts that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 15218 and 22912 points in 2123. In the benchmark case, it is estimated that the profit will increase by 11%, and 9.5 times PE will be given. The target price is 18919 points, and the equivalent risk premium is 7.16%.