A little word
The unpredictable "Covid-19" will not only make the Spring Festival in 2121 much quieter, but also deal a heavy blow to many industries that could have doubled their sales during the Spring Festival, such as tourism and catering. The article widely forwarded by the circle of friends is about Xibei Youmian Village, which has been led by General Jia for many years, decided to keep only more than 211 of its stores for take-away business. However, the income in the month of Spring Festival is less than 21% of the sales of all stores on weekdays. It is reported that the capital flow is only enough to maintain all labor expenses for three months.
and the automobile industry is in a state of suffering because it can't return to work normally. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in October 2121, the automobile production and sales dropped significantly. The production and sales of automobiles were 1.783 million and 1.94 million respectively, down by 33.5% and 27.1% from the previous month and 24.6% and 18.1% from the same period last year. The China Automobile Association predicts that the short-term impact of this epidemic on China's economy is greater than that of SARS in 2113. In the long run, the "butterfly effect" of the epidemic will gradually appear, or it will affect the future global automobile industry pattern.
According to the forecast of China Automobile Association, the automobile industry will be affected in the following three aspects. First of all, after the outbreak of pneumonia in Covid-19, residents' home isolation and self-protection awareness increased, and consumers' demand for car purchase and spending power decreased significantly in the short term. This will directly affect the demand for redemption in first-to third-tier cities, as well as the first purchase demand in rural areas such as cities and towns below the fourth line.
Secondly, the production progress of enterprises is blocked, and the export difficulties increase. According to the investigation and statistics of more than 311 automobile and spare parts enterprises by China Automobile Association, the delay in returning to work leads to an average of 7 ~ 11 days less work than in previous years (longer in Hubei), resulting in insufficient productivity and affecting product manufacturing; Many provinces, cities, regions and township roads have introduced strict inspection of traffic restrictions and implemented high-speed strict inspection, which has affected the transportation of whole vehicles and parts and further aggravated the production problems of enterprises. According to the calculation that the enterprise starts work for 11 days less, and the supply of personnel and industrial chain cannot meet the production needs in the short term after the resumption of work, it is expected that the industry output will exceed one million vehicles. According to incomplete statistics, more than 61 countries have issued entry control measures against China, which has also hindered Chinese automobile enterprises from exploring overseas markets and made it more difficult to export automobiles and parts.
furthermore, due to the delay in returning to work, the production and business of many automobile enterprises have stopped, and their income and cash flow have been interrupted, which will increase the hidden danger of capital chain breakage of SMEs. According to the survey results of China Automobile Association on industry enterprises, parts enterprises are more affected. Small and medium-sized enterprises (mainly spare parts enterprises) with small split and weak anti-risk ability will face the dilemma of bankruptcy, so there is a joke that many industrial personnel will face the risk of unemployment when they return to work.
Dealers "untied" offline marketing
Manufacturers stopped working, and the bundled dealers in the industrial chain were also implicated. According to the survey data of China Automobile Association, as of 16: 11 on February 4th, there were 4,222 4S stores in 65 automobile dealer groups monitored and investigated by the Association, and the comprehensive return to work rate was only 8.55%. According to the dealer's sales forecast for the whole year of 2121, if it can be fully resumed at the end of February, it is predicted that the annual automobile market will decline by 16.5%; If the full resumption of work is delayed until the end of March, the annual decline in automobile sales is expected to expand to 29.7%. It is reported that even if they return to work, affected by home isolation or home office, many 4S doorways can be described as "cold horses in front of the door", which is a bleak scene. Fortunately, some powerful foreign-funded or joint-venture brands give subsidies to the front-line personnel of dealers, which reduces the loss of paid shutdown during the epidemic period of dealers to some extent.
on February 7th, BMW said that, considering that many dealers worked remotely during the epidemic, it launched the application software of "BMW Dealer's Pocket Office" to facilitate sales consultants to keep customers at home. Start a special live broadcast from February 11 to interact with consumers online.
Audi is the only one among the three German luxury brands (BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi) that explicitly cancels the monthly assessment target in February. In addition, it is understood that Audi will also pay subsidies to front-line staff because the epidemic has a great impact on the income of front-line staff of dealers. The new initiatives of BMW and Mercedes-Benz mainly focus on consumers, such as online car viewing and warranty extension.
in addition to announcing that it will relax the performance appraisal of dealers, set no sales target in February, and subsidize the dealers' staff by RMB 11 million, Volvo also indicated that it will step up negotiations with banks to reduce the risk of repayment due to dealers, and extend the exemption period of the opening day for newly authorized 4S stores in the construction stage.
jaguar land rover also decided to cancel the February target assessment. Jaguar Land Rover China and Chery Jaguar Land Rover said that after the same decision, they will cancel the monthly assessment of dealers, and at the same time, they will provide dealers with a certain degree of inventory subsidies according to the models to ease the financial pressure on dealers.
in addition to "loosening" and subsidizing dealers, many luxury brands have also released new measures aimed at consumers. The epidemic situation makes it inconvenient for consumers to go out to the store, which is the primary problem faced by all car companies including luxury brands. In this case, BMW, British finidi and Jaguar Land Rover have launched e-commerce channels such as online intelligent exhibition halls and online official flagship stores, which are convenient for consumers to look at cars online and place orders, and have also launched door-to-door pick-up and delivery services.
new forces of car-making start direct sales mode to boost sales
compared with the distribution mode of traditional car companies, "new forces of car-making" mostly adopt direct sales mode in the form of experience display shops, which is more convenient for unified arrangement in epidemic prevention and control and return to work. It is reported that Xpeng Motors? Front-line employees such as "City Service Center" and online customer service are still on duty normally, while other employees can work flexibly through the telecommuting system. Xpeng Motors also chooses to adopt online marketing methods, such as live broadcast platform anchor selling cars, taking the initiative to invite one-on-one test drive, online one-stop car purchase, and using private domain traffic to promote sales.
weilai automobile will continue to provide 7*24-hour service consultation, vehicle remote diagnosis and solution services, including 7*24? The hourly road rescue service is also in continuous operation.
Tesla sales staff revealed that the company encourages more users to book cars online. Many salespeople registered short video accounts such as Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker during the Spring Festival, and sold cars through short video and live broadcast.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, as of February 2, 59 of the 183 vehicle production bases have started to resume production, accounting for 32.2%. According to the forecast of China Automobile Association, according to the information currently available, the epidemic will have a great impact on the operation of the automobile industry in the first quarter, and the production and sales of the industry will drop significantly. After the epidemic, the restrained consumer demand will be released in a short time, and the automobile market will usher in a short-term consumption peak, which will show a trend of low before and then high throughout the year, but the development situation of the automobile market throughout the year is still not optimistic.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.