It is this strong growth momentum that makes the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam full of confidence in the economic development in 2022, and then gives a new target of around 7%. Compared with the "6% to 6.5% target" set at the beginning of this year, it was raised by 0.5 percentage point to 1 percentage point.
Judging from the current development situation, Vietnam's economy is indeed full of vitality, and all walks of life, including agriculture, manufacturing, mining, service industry and foreign trade, have maintained a good momentum of development. It is not difficult to achieve the growth target of around 7% in 2022.
However, if we carefully observe the details of the national economic statistics report published by Vietnam National Bureau of Statistics, we will find that there are also big problems in Vietnam's economic development, especially "the foreign trade surplus and industrial upgrading are lower than market expectations", or it indicates that the stamina is insufficient.
Before the outbreak of the 20 19 epidemic, Vietnam's foreign trade surplus was around10 billion US dollars. By 2020, when all countries in the world are hit by the COVID-19 epidemic, Vietnam's foreign trade will be "unique in scenery"-not only will the total volume of import and export commodities reach a new high.
The trade surplus of foreign commodities even rose to a high level of "close to $20 billion", almost doubling on the basis of 20 19. Some people think that Vietnam's foreign trade surplus will be even higher after the entry into force of RCEP Free Trade Area and the entry into force of Vietnam's free trade areas with the European Union and the United Kingdom.
However, the public information in the first half of this year was unexpected. The foreign trade surplus is only $7 1 10,000, which is less than the fraction in the first half of 2020 and the first half of 20 19. It is estimated that the foreign trade surplus in 2022 will also be significantly lower than 20 19 and 2020.
Usually, we think that the foreign trade of a country or region is in a state of balance, which is an ideal level. But this does not apply to those export-oriented economies, because they mainly rely on their own resources or labor price advantages.
Introduce international capital and advanced technology to promote the development of domestic manufacturing industry and improve the domestic industrial level. According to international practice, countries that adopt export-oriented development model usually have a large trade surplus. Only when the domestic industry develops to a higher level and the labor price no longer has a price advantage will the foreign trade surplus tend to ease.
However, at present, Vietnam's manufacturing industry is still at the bottom, and processing trade is still the mainstay, and industrial upgrading is far from reaching the expected goal. In this context, the foreign trade surplus is only a mere $765.438 billion, and imports are "squeezing" exports. Things don't look good.
Another set of data that proves that Vietnam's industrial upgrading is lower than expected is that the growth rate of Vietnam's processing manufacturing industry is only 9.66%. If this level is compared with other countries and regions in the same period, it still has a big lead. But what if it is compared with the level of Vietnam in previous years?
In the past few years, when Vietnam's economy reached or approached the growth rate of about 7%, the manufacturing industry basically achieved double-digit growth, but when Vietnam's overall economic situation was good, the growth rate of manufacturing industry fell below double digits. Vietnam's manufacturing industry does not seem to have advanced by leaps and bounds under the overweight of various free trade agreements.
Nansheng believes that the above data shows that Vietnam's industrial upgrading is lower than market expectations. Under the pressure of the rising import cost of spare parts and raw materials, Vietnam's industrial upgrading is relatively backward, and the competitiveness of manufacturing industry has not improved simultaneously, so it cannot be transferred out by raising prices.
Only relying on the pressure of enterprises' own consumption of import costs has led to a double-digit increase in Vietnam's total import and export commodities, while the foreign trade surplus is only a fraction of the first half of 2020 and the first half of 20 19. What do netizens think about this? This article was compiled and written by Nansheng. Please do not reprint or copy without authorization!