Possibly, the vast majority of people with the ghost, as well as the original preparedness and posture to meet the spring of the car market in 2020, but who did not expect is that this spring, will be in a fight against the new coronary virus "war epidemic" in the opening curtain.

The new coronavirus (referred to as the "new crown") attacked, the epidemic for wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, logistics and transportation, culture and tourism, almost all industries have a greater impact. Let the car market originally added to the frost and added a new "load", then, the epidemic will have what degree of impact on the car market? This time, the ghost did a bold "guess" to see the next, the car market will go where?

Conjecture one: most of the new cars on the market or pushed back?

Reliable index: five stars

For the chilly 2020 car market, the major mainstream automakers have done a good job of preparing for a full-scale war, "Sun Tzu's Art of War - Combat," said: "Soldiers are expensive to win, but not expensive to long. Combat is the most important, the most favorable is a quick victory, the most inappropriate is protracted. Yes, for 2020, the mainstream automobile manufacturers have long done a good job of product planning for various time periods. It is understood that in February 2020, there will be a number of heavyweight new cars landed in the automotive market, which, including the flagship models of some automotive brands, such as the Geely icon, Rui Hu 7/Rui Hu 7?PRO, Fiesta EV, Jetta VS7, the new Audi Q7, Lexus LM and so on.

But according to the current progress of the "war epidemic", as well as the resumption of work in the major provinces schedule, the vast majority of provinces in the resumption of work on February 10 or so, or even longer, those who plan to go on sale on February 14 or so is very difficult to advance on time, even if the preparatory work is sufficient, the kind of Large-scale listing activities can not be executed. Moreover, at present, the most important thing is to fight against the new coronavirus, and consumers' attention is also focused on this "war epidemic", in this way, even if individual automobile manufacturers adopt the online listing method, it may not be able to achieve the expected ideal effect. However, the ghosts feel that, according to experts' predictions, after the epidemic period, that is, after half a month, some manufacturers will probably launch some new cars through the online interaction, after all, the days are again difficult, but also have to move forward ah!

Conjecture 2: some models or a stage of "stop production"?

Reliable index: 4 stars

This time, suffered a new type of coronavirus pneumonia "hardest hit" is located in Wuhan, Hubei, Wuhan is one of China's four major passenger car production base. The region is home to five major vehicle lines, including American, Japanese, French, British and domestic, making it the most complete city in the country's automotive industry layout, with many automakers and auto parts makers, including Shenlong Automobile, SAIC Motor, Dongfeng Honda, Dongfeng Renault, etc. In 2019, Hubei province produced 2,247,500 vehicles, which accounted for close to 10 percent of the country's total automotive output.

With the further spread of the new coronavirus, all these car companies mentioned above will have different changes in the time of resumption of work. It is understood that some joint venture brand car makers have already picked up their employees and family members working in Wuhan through chartered flights, and there is no specific time when they will return. As a production-intensive enterprises, automobile manufacturers in this "people to people" in front of the "war epidemic", but also need to suspend production, according to the control of the epidemic, and ultimately decide the specific time to resume work. In fact, not only Wuhan, Volkswagen also asked about 3,500 employees in Beijing in February 3 to February 17 period to work at home for two weeks; Toyota also announced that the plant in China before February 10 closed.

Conjecture 3: the car market or retaliatory "rebound"?

Reliability index: 4 stars

In 2003, "SARS" did not affect the Chinese auto market in 2003, and even the Shanghai Auto Show was held as usual (and then called off). That year, China's auto market sales increased by 70 percent year-on-year, and 17 years later, China's auto market has undergone a sea change, although the epidemic suppressed some of the car consumption, but the times are different now, the current era, with the domestic market in 2003, there is a clear difference, that kind of vindictive and crazy growth can not be replicated.

As of the end of 2019, China's car ownership of 260 million units; annual sales have exceeded 25 million units, which is ten times more than in 2003. Entering the stock era of the automobile industry has been two years of negative growth, in fact, the first and second-tier cities are nearly saturated, four or five tier cities lack of spending power, which is a major feature of China's current car market. The current round of the epidemic, many industries have a significant impact, which also means that the industry consumption of income is much lower, the decline in income will naturally affect part of the car consumption potential.

But, in the car market structural adjustment, consumption upgrading trend, for the car market in 2020 do not have to be too pessimistic, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the passenger association, said that the negative impact of the new pneumonia on the automobile industry are: production is blocked, the industry chain supply is blocked, the activities of the 4S store is difficult to carry out, marketing and other gathering activities are forced to cancel, the decline in the residents' expected income, etc.; the positive impact is: the private purchase of cars enthusiasm will rise, and the enthusiasm of residents for public **** transportation and online car rental will fall". After the epidemic, car consumption will still have a huge space for a revenge rebound, but Ghost believes that the increase in the car market in 2020 will definitely not be as wild as it was in 2003.

Conjecture 4: Beijing auto show or will stop?

Reliability index: 3 stars

The international A-class auto show held every other year - 2020 (the 16th) Beijing International Automobile Exhibition (Auto?China?2020), which was scheduled to be held from April 23 to April 30, 2020 at the New China International Exhibition Center and the Old China International Exhibition Center in Beijing.

Although there are still more than two months to go, following the 2003 "SARS epidemic?" The entire timeline shows that this new coronavirus outbreak will take at least half a year to end, and the 2020 Beijing Auto Show may come to a halt. Given that today's medical and control experience has long exceeded the 2003 level, even if the time is cut in half, it will still take at least until the end of April to end, so it seems that the 2020 Beijing Auto Show will be hard to escape from the fate of the show, unless the display is moved to June or even July!

Ghosts: Today's spring, CCTV news posted a picture that reads, "There is no winter that is insurmountable, and there is no spring that is not coming. Although the epidemic came very suddenly, but the difficulties are destined to be only temporary, China's car market endogenous power, strong toughness. Neither blind optimism, nor excessive panic, China's auto market will usher in its own "spring". May China's car market and Wuhan, the same - hold on!

This article comes from the authors of AutoNews, and does not represent the views of AutoNews.