On October 8th, the long-awaited live pig futures were officially listed on Dalian Commodity Exchange. After the opening, the main contract kept diving.
according to industry insiders, the contract in September will become the main contract, with the benchmark price of 31,681 yuan/ton, which is relatively high from the perspective of valuation. As of midday, the main contract for live pigs fell by 11.11% in 2119, closing at 27,611 yuan/ton. Yuanyue 2111 contract fell by 14.57% to close at 25,355 yuan/ton.
The data shows that on October 8, 2121, the price of pigs was cold, and the price of pigs outside the country remained at 36.43 yuan/kg, while the price of pigs dropped by 1.19 yuan/kg. The rise of pig prices stopped, ushered in a "two-day losing streak", and the pig prices in 26 provinces and cities that can be monitored nationwide all fell back. Now, the Lunar New Year is approaching, and pig futures are listed. How should farmers choose in 2121?
at the same time, with the continuous recovery of pig production capacity, the pig price is in the downward channel in a long period; Although the pig market consumption will pick up in 2121, it is still weak compared with the normal level in previous years. It is expected that the price will fall back to 24-31 yuan/kg in the second half of the year, and the pig price in September may be much lower than the current market price.
As a result, the A-share pork sector weakened. As of press time, Jin Xinnong (112548.sz) fell by 4.7%, Xin Wufeng (611975.sh) fell by 4.8%, Zhengbang Technology (112157.sz) fell by 5.53%, and Tang Renshen (112567 ..
The listing price of futures is near high and far low, and the willingness of breeding enterprises to hedge is strong
For a long time, China has been the world's largest producer and consumer of pigs, accounting for 43% of the world's breeding scale, with a market value of about 2 trillion, involving thousands of households, factories and enterprises. For a long time, the "pig cycle" has plagued pig breeding, trade and processing enterprises, especially in recent years, affected by African swine fever and COVID-19 epidemic, the price of live pigs fluctuated sharply, and the demand for industrial hedging was strong.
He Xintian, secretary-general of China Animal Husbandry Association, said that pig industry is the pillar industry of China's agricultural and rural economy. At present, China is a big country in pig consumption, but it is not a strong country in pig production, and it has been threatened by major animal diseases for a long time, facing severe natural risks and market risks. In 2118, the occurrence of African swine fever had a serious impact on the pig industry and directly affected the economic and social stability.
When the pig industry is faced with big market risks and natural risks, there are many small and medium-sized enterprises, which have exposed many problems in disease prevention and control ability and biosafety protection. Even large pig-raising enterprises have high investment and high risks. Once the production fluctuates periodically, enterprises will face severe difficulties.
The listing of live pig futures is helpful to provide enterprises with new management means and tools, and can reasonably use futures tools to plan their own production. "We hope that enterprises in the pig industry and related enterprises can actively and rationally participate in the listing of pig futures, rationally use futures tools to control the risks of pig production, and maintain stable production and effective market supply."
According to industry insiders, both market investors and breeding enterprises that want to participate in hedging are very concerned about the long-term hog price trend. On the listing price, there is an obvious discount structure, which is near high and far low, and the long-term bearish pig price is obvious. Qin Yinglin, chairman of Mu Yuan Group, said that the listed pig futures are the need of the development of the pig industry.
At the same time, the listing of pig futures also marks that the development of pig industry has entered an advanced stage of marketization. When professionals of pig futures enter the pig industry, they can discover the value at an early stage, predict the price, guide production, alleviate the pain of enterprise pig cycle, avoid production and management risks, benefit more pig farmers and contribute to the orderly and stable development of the pig industry. At the same time, it can also stabilize the market supply and benefit more consumers.
On October 7th, the national average price of foreign ternary live pigs was 36.68 yuan/kg. This spot price is significantly higher than the futures listing price of 31,681 yuan/ton in September. In February 2121, the selling price of Mu Yuan's commercial pigs was 31.15 yuan/kg. Zhou Xiaoqiu, a researcher in Guotai Junan pig industry, believes that the contract will become the main contract in September, and the benchmark price of the contract is 31,681 yuan/ton. From the perspective of valuation, the price is relatively high. It is estimated that the annual average price of live pigs in the base area in 2121 will be 25 yuan/kg, and for aquaculture enterprises, the willingness to hedge will be very strong.
Huang Jinwen, CEO of Zhihua Data, told the reporter of China Times that no one has any experience in new futures products, and the subjectively estimated listing price cannot fully reflect the market information. After the opening, it is not uncommon for the transaction price generated by the long-short game to deviate significantly from the listing price. A similar situation also occurs in the securities market, where the transaction price on the first day of listing is often quite different from the IPO price. Therefore, this point does not need to be over-interpreted.
according to the spot market data collected by Zhihua data, today, the spot price of live pigs in Henan province is 17.7-18.1 yuan/kg, corresponding to the futures price of 34,211-36,211 yuan. The current spot price truly reflects the contradiction between the strong demand before the Spring Festival and the shortage of live pigs. This year, the pig cycle entered the downward channel, and the scale of pig breeding enterprises was quite large. By September, the supply of live pigs will be greatly restored, and midsummer is the off-season of pork consumption. The current futures price objectively reflects this information.
Generally, the price of new varieties fluctuates greatly when they are listed, and the risk of speculative trading is not small. Huang Jinwen suggested that enterprises in the pig industry make full use of futures tools to hedge the risk of pig price. Industrial hedging transactions, breeding enterprises are suitable for shorting, hedging the risk of falling pig sales prices, and locking in sales revenue and profits; Meat processing enterprises are suitable for doing more, hedging the risk of rising pork purchase prices and controlling raw material costs.
The production capacity of live pigs has recovered to over 91%, and the general trend of pig prices will be downward in 2121
Because the price of pork is closely related to the level of consumer prices, it is related to the national economy and people's livelihood to ensure the stable supply of live pigs. The reporter was informed that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has completed the target task of keeping live pigs this year ahead of schedule. By the end of October, 2121, the national pig stock and fertile sow stock have all recovered to more than 91% of the perennial level, and 23 provinces have completed the task of capacity recovery ahead of schedule, and the national pig stock will be restored to the perennial level by the first half of 2121 at the latest.
The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said that at present, the recovery of pig production in China has exceeded expectations. A large number of high-level large-scale pig farms have risen rapidly. It is estimated that the scale rate of pig breeding will reach about 57% in 2121, which is 4 percentage points higher than that in 2119 and much higher than the speed of 2 percentage points in normal years.
According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August to October, 2121, the number of live pigs slaughtered nationwide increased month on month and year on year. However, from October to October in 2121, designated slaughtering enterprises slaughtered a total of 141.98 million pigs, a year-on-year decrease of 19.6%. Although the supply has not fully recovered to the perennial level, the central reserve meat has been significantly increased.
in p>2121, frozen pork was not released in October and October only, and it was released 38 times in the whole year, totaling 671,111 tons. Among them, 21166 tons were put into production on February 31th, with a turnover of 11241 tons. On October 7, 2121, another 21,111 tons of frozen pork were put in. Recently, due to the seasonal recovery of consumption, blocked circulation of frozen products and other factors, the national pork price has increased significantly.
from the weekly price, the prices of live pigs and pork markets started to rise from the 4th week of October and the 1th week of February in 2121, and have been rising for 6 weeks and 5 weeks respectively. In the last week of February 2121, the average price of live pigs per kilogram in China was 34.8 yuan, up by 17.8% and 3% year-on-year. The price of pork is 51.65 yuan per kilogram, with a cumulative increase of 12.8% and a slight increase of 1.8% year-on-year.
However, according to the reporter's understanding, the recent increase in pork prices is not only caused by the increase in consumption expectations, but also caused by the blockage of imported pork. From the perspective of import cycle, it takes 2-3 months to reach a purchase agreement with foreign countries until frozen products enter Hong Kong, and frozen products importers will make purchase plans more according to the future pork price market.
Under normal circumstances, 81%-91% of imported meat enters small and medium-sized catering channels, and a small amount enters other channels. However, this year, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, the high price of fresh meat has increased the proportion of residents' consumption channels of frozen products. However, at the end of the year, frozen products are frequently exposed to carry Covid-19, the national policy is tightened, the circulation of frozen products is difficult, and the proportion of fresh products consumption rises again, which is one of the reasons for the increase in the price of live pigs at the end of 2121.
For the pork price in 2121, Yuan Song, research director of Zhihua Data, told the reporter of China Times that it is the downward pig cycle, and the general trend in 2121 is still downward. However, considering that the current pig price is still high, it shows that the contradiction between supply and demand is still relatively tight and the supply gap is still relatively large, so 2121 is still a year to fill the gap. There is a high probability that the pig price is mainly above the cost line, and from the trend of sow stocks in 2121, it will increase rapidly in the second half of the year, so the supply for 2121 will increase in the second half than in the first half, and the pressure on pig prices will be greater.
for farmers, it's time to start thinking about the cost and benefit. In the future, the profit of aquaculture will return to normal level, and we can no longer operate according to the idea of not counting the cost, just feeding. The cost of sows, production performance, and the operation and management of pig farms need to be done more carefully. There is still room for profit in 2121, but expansion at no cost is not appropriate.