With the easing of the epidemic situation, a viewpoint, namely, retaliatory consumption, began to appear frequently in the industry.

Wu Xiaobo, a financial writer, also mentioned in his speech, "In the second half of 2121, we will see monetary easing policy, large-scale industrial investment and people's retaliatory consumption."

The recently released data also seems to support this view. Recently, Wang Bin, deputy director of the Market Operation Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said that in late February, the average daily sales of 1,111 retail enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 5.6% compared with that in mid-February, and began to resume positive growth after continuous negative growth in late October.

both merchants and consumers are looking forward to the downturn. Does the appearance of these views and data indicate that a big wave of retaliatory consumption is coming?

what is retaliatory consumption?

first of all, it needs to be clear that retaliatory consumption is a term that appears in the traditional business context, and its basic meaning is a strong rebound consumption behavior caused by sudden accidents in a short time in a local area because of information asymmetry.

According to the explanation of relevant experts, there are four main premises:

First, there is a lack of normal communication of consumer information, psychological depression forms a closed period, and there is a "psychological leakage reaction", which needs to be released by normal communication.

Second, the time is short, such as an earthquake, and there is no definite social responsibility party, which generally does not form the direction of social pressure.

Third, the consumption power of the general public is still there, and their employment and income have not been deeply damaged. Once they recover, they have reason and ability to spend suddenly.

fourth, the specific consumption value of the money in the hands of the public has not obviously depreciated during the consumption process, or that is to say, the price of mass consumer goods has not risen sharply and inflation has not depreciated.

Based on the basic theory of retaliatory consumption, it can be seen that different consumption scenarios lead to different consumption recovery situations and different possibilities of retaliatory consumption.

On the one hand, during the epidemic period, the whole society was well supplied with food and daily necessities, and with the development of the distribution industry, almost no consumers suppressed their demand in this area. On the other hand, many enterprises have cut their salaries, laid off employees or even gone bankrupt because of the epidemic. More and more young consumers are beginning to realize the importance of saving money, and their desire for non-essential items is also beginning to decrease.

In other words, the so-called retaliatory consumption may be a false proposition at all. Under the squeeze of the epidemic, consumers' consumption time is relatively concentrated, which is only the illusion of retaliatory consumption.

As the experts said, "What should be bought should be bought in a centralized way after the epidemic is over, which is an extension of rigid consumption and cannot be regarded as a retaliatory rebound."

what does retaliatory consumption need?

Recently, some incredible consumption phenomena have been seen in the media repeatedly: ordering 77 cups of milk tea at a time, buying 51 lipsticks at a time, ordering the whole menu of barbecue, and eating hot pot for three days and being sent directly to ICU ...

As some netizens said, my retaliatory consumption mainly refers to retaliatory eating and drinking.

Some netizens even bluntly said that "retaliatory consumption" should be based on "retaliatory income". After the epidemic has passed, the company whose income does not decrease is the conscience company. Compared with "retaliatory consumption", more people may choose "retaliatory saving".

This is very telling: what retaliatory consumption needs is sufficient spending power.

"After the epidemic, will you take revenge on consumption?" According to an online survey in Weibo, some people's answer to this question is: No. There are two reasons to say "no": one is to ask "retaliatory consumption, take revenge"; The other means "finally save some money at home"? .

"Because of the epidemic, some factories and companies shut down, and many people's income dropped sharply, but mortgage, car loan, credit card, flower garden, IOUs, etc. have to be paid back", said a netizen, and these are all debts before the epidemic, and the expenses during the epidemic have not been counted. "This epidemic has made me re-examine my savings and profitability and whether I can stand the test of a crisis."

Many contemporary young people have long been accustomed to "moonlight", no longer believe in conservative monetarism, and have been replaced by consumerism instead of thrift. This generation is too easy to go from one extreme to the other.

now it's finally broken.

in p>2119, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 8%, which declined for two consecutive years, which means that the growth of residents' consumption power has stagnated. As China's economy bid farewell to the period of ultra-high-speed growth, and then the sudden epidemic situation is superimposed, the embodiment at the individual level is that consumers lack confidence in their future income, which in turn depresses consumption.

The previous analysis of the financial health of working-class people by inclusive finance Research Institute of China Renmin University shows that on the one hand, 71% of working-class people expect their family income to decrease after the epidemic; On the other hand, nearly 61% of the emergency funds in the hands of the working class can only maintain the same standard of living before the epidemic within three months, and only 21% can last for more than half a year.

this reflects a brand-new proposition: at any time, we should understand that the money left in your pocket is the real strength of your life.

After the epidemic, what we need to reposition and rearrange is:

What is life?

what exactly is consumption?

what do we really need?

Retaliatory consumption is an instantaneous increase in quantity, which is only a stopgap measure. The consumers it faces are "irrational" consumers who have been suppressed by the epidemic for a long time, and they are short-lived "retaliatory" consumer psychology. As long as this stage is over, the consumption habits will tend to be stable, and even the big barrels of milk tea and the delicious hot pot will not be so "fragrant".

will retaliatory consumption appear in the automobile industry?

"The epidemic tells us that we must buy a car when we go to work, otherwise we will not be able to go to work."

have you felt this way during this time? Did you put the lottery and saving money on the agenda?

China Automobile Association once said that the epidemic had a huge impact on the operation of the automobile industry in the first quarter, and the production and sales of the industry would be greatly reduced. Car sales in October decreased by 27% year-on-year, and sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 54.4% year-on-year, almost halved. In February, the decline in automobile production and sales was more significant than that in October.

on March 7th, SAIC, the largest automobile manufacturer in China, was the first to announce the production and sales of automobiles in February, and its main business segments, such as SAIC Volkswagen, SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling, all showed a decline of more than 51%. Since then, independent brands such as Geely, Great Wall, Chang 'an and BYD have also announced their sales figures in February, and the average decline is very bleak. Moreover, many car companies only counted the cumulative data of 1-2 months when showing the year-on-year changes, making the decline figures less "dazzling".

such a severe automobile market has made many manufacturers miserable. at present, many websites and media people think that after the epidemic is over, the automobile market will usher in a wave of "retaliatory" consumption behavior. Then, will there be a car buying fever after the epidemic?

food, clothing, housing and transportation, if you think about it carefully, this ranking is actually the most appropriate.

clothes, food, housing, and finally everything about walking.

basic clothes are not decent, but to prevent dishonor.

Basic food is not for eating well, but for living.

basic housing can be rented and lived.

the trip is the last: when you go out, you can walk, ride a bike, take a bus, drive or fly; Of course, you can take a trip when you have enough money.

This sort shows that travel is at the end of necessary consumption at any time.

indeed, in the survey of "the influence of epidemic situation on users' car purchase", 81% of users think that private cars can provide an effective isolated environment for epidemic prevention, and 84.6% of users think that it is more necessary to buy private cars after the epidemic situation.

is this what people often say "organic in danger"? China auto market is expected to usher in a "retaliatory rebound". Will the two-year market decline come to an end?

not necessarily.

In fact, large-scale consumption like automobiles is more appropriate to be called "compensatory consumption" than "retaliatory consumption". Wang Bin, deputy director of the Market Operation Department of the Ministry of Commerce, used the same word in his speech: "China's automobile market has great development space and potential, and the demand for automobile consumption is still strong. The impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry is phased. As the epidemic is controlled, production and life will gradually recover, and the compensatory consumer demand for automobiles will increase significantly in the later period. "

Obviously, "compensatory consumption" can hardly be the support for the rebound of China automobile market, because this part of consumption also existed in the normal operation of the automobile market, but it was only temporarily suppressed during the epidemic.

so what about the new car buyers who are expected by the epidemic? Consumers in first-tier cities with high purchasing power are basically "suffering" from the car purchase restriction policy. Even if the demand for private car travel is stronger because of the epidemic, I am afraid I can only give up because I can't shake the number; In the third-and fourth-tier cities with high hopes, although there are fewer restrictions on purchase and restriction policies, consumers in these areas are more vulnerable to macroeconomic impact. If the downward pressure on the economy has not been alleviated this year, but the epidemic situation has worsened, then the automobile consumers in these areas may also be "powerless".

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Transport Association, also believes that the impact of the epidemic on automobile consumers can be divided into three types:

1. The epidemic caused people who originally wanted to buy a car to have their economic ability decreased, and their car purchase was temporarily cancelled or delayed;

2.? The demand of consumers who have been delayed by the epidemic will erupt in the last month or two;

3.? The epidemic has stimulated some consumers' desire to buy cars, mainly for entry-level cars, which will have a small pull on self-owned brand models.

to sum up, there will be a wave of signs of recovery in the auto market after the epidemic, but the rebound will not be particularly strong.

Generally speaking, because the "shelf life" of vehicles is still relatively long, the backlog of demand can be slowly released in the later period, unlike services and restaurants, where consumers don't eat for two months and can't eat five meals a day after everything is restored!

Perhaps, some people will take SARS in 2113 as an example to illustrate the consumption growth of the automobile market, and even some manufacturers will take it as a basis.

"After the SARS epidemic ended, people were worried about public transportation, which led to a retaliatory increase in private car consumption, which can be used as an important reference for the trend of the auto market this year." A person in charge of a new force to build a car said.

but will 2121 be the same as 2113?

The data shows that there were less than 21 cars with 1,111 people in China at the end of 2112. Despite the SARS in 2113, the automobile sales in China were 4,391,811, up 34.21% year-on-year. After more than a decade of growth, the automobile sales in China increased by only 3% in 2117, and decreased by 2.8% and 8.2% in 2118 and 2119 for two consecutive years.

The industry concludes that the sales outbreak after SARS in 2113 is basically unlikely for three reasons: First, in 2113, China's economy developed at a high speed, the number of cars was low, and the demand for cars was basically in short supply, while in recent two years, the situation of the automobile industry was overcapacity; Second, people now travel in more diverse ways, not necessarily relying on private cars; Third, people's consumption tends to be rational and will not be so impulsive.

"It is an objective reality that purchasing power is seriously damaged." Cui Dongshu said that the retail industry, including catering, tourism, film and television, real estate and other entities, suffered a huge impact from the epidemic, and the purchasing power and consumer confidence of the corresponding employees were also hit hard. Therefore, policies to promote consumption need to be supported at the national level, while local stimulus capacity is really limited.

Retaliatory consumption has never been traced

Taking history as a mirror, we can know the rise and fall. History is always strikingly similar, but it is by no means a simple repetition.

Let's look at SARS before 2117 and make a comparative observation. This may help to think about the trend of the consumer industry in the future.

in October, 2112, the first case of SARS was found in China, and the epidemic reached its peak in March and April of the following year, and the epidemic basically ended in June. SARS caused a cliff-like decline in the consumer industry, especially in the catering industry.

after the epidemic ended, the catering industry gradually stepped into the upward range, but it was not until September 2113 that the year-on-year growth rate of the catering industry returned to the same level of the previous year, and there was no significant increase, so "retaliatory consumption" was not fully confirmed.

Of course, when comparing SARS with COVID-19, we can't ignore two points: first, China's economy has bid farewell to the period of ultra-high-speed growth; second, although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, there have been new outbreaks around the world, which has also hindered the recovery of consumers' confidence to some extent.

there is a survivor bias (Survival? Bias) theory means that people can only see the results produced by some kind of screening, but they are not aware of the screening process, so they ignore the key information that has been screened out.

Recently, we can often read articles saying that enterprises have survived SARS and ushered in retaliatory growth. For example, Ctrip firmly held the leading position in the industry in one fell swoop after the epidemic in 2113, and successfully logged into the Nasdaq market in the United States within half a year after the end of SARS. This is a typical survivor bias, because we simply can't remember the names of those enterprises that have been dumped.

more importantly, the current economic trend is completely different from that before 2117.

Before and after the outbreak of p>SARS, China was a typical investment-driven economy, and the contribution rate of investment to GDP growth reached more than 61%, which was vividly reflected in 2113. In the environment of sluggish consumption, investment is the pillar of China's economic growth. Coupled with the global market dividend after China's entry into WTO, China's GDP actually increased by 9.3% in 2113.

Nowadays, consumption has become the first of the "Troika" that drives China's economic development. Not only that, the upgrading of manufacturing industry driven by consumption upgrading is also helping China to complete the transition from a big exporter to a big consumer.

However, at the moment of sluggish consumption, this change has further reduced consumer confidence.

The epidemic is like a mirror, breaking in front of every family. It measures the real family strength and gives everyone an opportunity to re-examine their consumption concept.

Being in the auto industry, the accumulated demand in the auto market may be gradually released. In order to attract consumers' attention and quickly withdraw funds, major auto companies and 4S stores will basically have a good discount rate, and there should be considerable data in March. However, today, when so many industries are adversely affected, it is almost impossible to say that "retaliatory" consumption has seen a hot market with a year-on-year increase.

instead of this, it is better to do what we can first, such as restoring order in an orderly manner, optimizing the consumption environment, helping consumers improve their spending power and boosting their confidence.

Again, the pent-up consumption power will return to the market, but the market is there. If you don't take the initiative to fight for it, others will seize the opportunity. The "sick" city will get better soon. Are car manufacturers ready? (Text/car has wisdom? Wang Deyuan)

This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.