First, the Olympic economy should not be underestimated.
Olympic economy refers to all kinds of activities that have economic effects or values in a certain period before and after the Olympic Games. The overall effect and influence of the Olympic Games is an important foundation for the economic development of the Olympic Games. In the past 30 years, the Olympic economy has become a unique economic phenomenon in the world economic development.
1, the Olympic Games is a big stage for brand building.
Judging from the historical practice of previous host cities, the Olympic economy is an attention economy, which will bring staged accelerated development to the host city due to the relative concentration of attention resources; Olympic economy is a brand economy, which can usually create a number of well-known products and corporate brands through good operation; The Olympic economy is an economy that takes advantage of the situation. It will give a strong impetus to the economic and social development of the host city and act as an accelerator or catalyst. Olympic economy has great economic potential because of its unique polymerization, fission and radiation effects.
2.2008 Olympic Games and China economy: Olympic Games promotes development.
The 2008 Olympic Games has a positive and far-reaching impact on the development of Beijing: the Olympic Games is a systematic project, which needs to improve the infrastructure and service capacity of the host city. In addition, the Olympic Games will also introduce a lot of consumption in a short time. Therefore, the Olympic Games will greatly promote the investment and consumption of the host city and its economic development.
The 2008 Olympic Games promoted the economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu area and China. It is well documented that the Olympic Games has promoted a country's economic development. For example, hosting the Olympic Games in Japan and South Korea has greatly promoted the whole economy. Especially since the Los Angeles Olympic Games, the concept of Olympic economy has begun to appear, and the economic benefits of the Olympic Games have gradually emerged.
Economic benefits of previous Olympic Games
(Source: Securities Herald)
Of course, we can expect the Olympic Games to promote the Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu plate, especially with the start of the construction of Tianjin Binhai New Area, the Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu regional economy may take the 2008 Olympic Games as an opportunity to achieve new take-off, just like Japan and South Korea.
Of course, considering China's vast territory and the formation of a number of regional economic sectors, the impetus of the Olympic Games to China's economy may not be as great as that of Japan and South Korea in absolute terms, and it may be more like or even weaker than the impact of hosting the Olympic Games in Australia. However, we believe that this Olympic Games is of great significance to the adjustment of China's economic structure, and will guide the rapid development of China's consumer service industry in a deeper and wider scope, especially in the context of building a harmonious society, the tertiary industry will surely develop rapidly.
3. The impact of the Olympic economy on the industry
Let's break down the Olympic economy:
Olympic Games, first of all, is a kind of sports event, which will have a direct impact on the sports industry, such as stadium construction, lottery issuance, TV broadcast and advertising, sporting goods, souvenir sales and so on. Secondly, the Olympic Games is a game. Participants include athletes, referees, government officials, journalists, cheerleaders and tourists. The arrival of these people is bound to be accompanied by food, shelter, transportation, shopping and entertainment. Therefore, it will bring opportunities to related service industries and consumer goods industries, such as finance, catering, transportation, commercial retail, tourism, media, logistics and environmental protection. Consumer goods industry, especially fast-moving consumer goods industry, such as beer, beverages, daily chemicals, condiments, paper products and other industries directly bring to consumers; Finally, to ensure the normal operation of the above industries, it is necessary to have the support of upstream industries, such as building materials, new materials, construction technology, information technology and equipment production, automobile manufacturing, security technology and equipment, environmental protection technology and equipment, etc.
From the perspective of time and influence, before the Olympic Games, technology, equipment and materials were the protagonists, and industries such as building materials, real estate, construction technology, security equipment and environmental protection equipment started first. With the approaching and convening of the Olympic Games, lottery, TV broadcasting and advertising, sporting goods and other related service industries and related consumer goods will all usher in the peak of consumption. After the Olympic Games, consumers left and instant consumption stopped. Some people feel empty. Will China's songs be carried around the world while leaving a smile? We expect it to be positive. These China songs are definitely commodities that will leave a good impression on foreign friends during the Olympic Games, and have rapid commercial value. What might these goods be?
Only when there is a brand can there be life: Generally speaking, a brand is based on quality, industry status and fashion, and the brand itself has high commercial value and low cost of commercial expansion.
What is national is world-wide: The Olympic Games provides a world stage for China's special commodities. The sustained growth of China's economy and the unique charm of oriental culture have prompted foreigners to demand China's specialty goods, which are based on characteristics and monopoly, unique culture, and the growing influence on the world under the rapid development of the parent economy, with a solid foundation and sustainable development.
Apart from tangible goods, the most distinctive thing is China's cultural industry, which has opened up a broader space for China's film and television products and cultural works.
Beautiful Beijing and China: Beijing is the host city of the Olympic Games and the capital of China. After all, Beijing's beautiful image and good memories for tourists have triggered a new upsurge of tourism in China, because during the Olympic Games, the competition was the main event and the short-term passenger flow was large, which brought inconvenience to those who really wanted to enjoy tourism. After the Olympic Games, the tourist facilities and services in Beijing and China have reached a new level, attracting more foreign tourists. Considering the appreciation of RMB, we expect that the prosperity of tourism and commercial retail will be maintained after the Olympic Games, and the communication platform of the Olympic Games will bring great opportunities to the sports industry in China.
Second, the Olympic Games is an important catalyst for the stock market.
The stock market is a barometer of the economy. Since the Olympic Games can promote the economy of a region, it should also be reflected in the stock market. Historically, the Olympic economy has a great positive impact on the stock market.
Generally speaking, the Olympic trend of Australian and Seoul stock markets is two representative forms. In terms of time, the Australian stock market rose by 40% in the year of Sydney's successful Olympic bid in 1993, and then rose by 12% on the eve of the 1999 Olympic Games. But in the following two years, the stock market performed generally, and in 2003, the stock market went bullish again. It shows a pattern of ups and downs, which reflects the Olympic stimulus effect before and after the Olympic Games. The Korean Olympic Games made the Korean stock market rise by 68.9%, 98.29% and 70.5 1% continuously at 86, 87 and 88. However, after the Olympic Games, the stock market showed a downward trend, showing a pattern of rising more and falling less, and its Olympic stimulus was mainly reflected before and during the Olympic Games.
Combined with the China stock market, under the background of share reform, appreciation and rising factor prices, the rising index rose by more than 90%. If the consideration factor of share reform is deducted, the China stock market will rise by more than 50%. Considering the appreciation of South Korea at that time, on the whole, we estimate that the trend of China will be more similar to that of South Korea's stock market. However, considering the market capacity and China's national conditions, it is estimated that the increase of China is not as big as that of South Korea, but the decline after the Olympic Games is relatively flat.
It should be said that the leading force of China's stock market rise is price repair, and the future rise will inevitably mainly come from value creation, and the Olympic economy belongs to the category of value creation caused by external variables (and some subsequent value moves forward). We expect that the Olympic economy will still have a lasting impact on China stock market in 2007 and 2008.
From the perspective of sectors, the Olympic economy first led to the strengthening of the transportation, finance and basic materials sectors in South Korea, with obvious investment drive, while the consumer indexes such as retail and communication increased the most in the Olympic Games, with significant consumption drive; As early as 1993, Australia successfully applied for the Olympic Games, and the financial sector took the lead. The construction sector strengthened at 1997 and 1999 respectively, which reflected the investment-driven nature of the Olympic economy, while the strength of the service sector during and after the Olympic Games reflected consumption. From the historical experience, investment activities before the Olympic Games triggered investment opportunities in real estate, infrastructure and other related industries, while the Olympic Games triggered continuous investment opportunities in consumer services. This conclusion is also consistent with our previous analysis.
Judging from the increase of China stock market, the increase of real estate in 2006 was in the forefront, which not only reflected the appreciation of RMB, but also partly reflected the Olympic factors.
In 2006, Beijing plate obviously outperformed the broader market and Shenzhen-Shanghai local plate, and the Olympic theme was further reflected in the capital market. Subdividing Beijing plate, the performance of real estate and banking plate in 2006 is better than other plates in Beijing, which is in line with the experience trend of previous Olympic Games.
The Olympic theme will be an important investment opportunity this year.
Because the essence of the Olympic economy is attention economy, and the Olympic theme will also be a highly recognized game opportunity in the stock market, we believe that the Olympic theme must be an investment theme this year or even for a long time.
1. Grasp the Olympic business opportunities of Olympic partners, sponsors and suppliers.
Being able to be a partner, sponsor and supplier is itself a symbol of strength. The company's active participation in the Olympic Games also reflects the company's emphasis on its own development and brand. After becoming a partner, sponsor and supplier, always remind the company to actively operate, because the related expenses will cost a lot of money every day, and the sense of crisis will prompt the company to improve its efficiency.
As long as the company operates properly, the Olympic Games will open up a broader stage for related companies, especially many China enterprises participating in the Olympic Games for the first time.
IOC Partner: Lenovo Group (00992, Hong Kong)
Partners of Beijing 2008: Bank of China (60 1988sh, 3988hk) (quotation, information), China Netcom (0906hk), China Mobile (094 1 hk) and China Petrochemical (600028sh, 0386hk) (quotation,
Sponsors of Beijing 2008: Haier (600690sh, 1 169hk) (quotation, information), Yili (600887sh) (quotation, information), Tsingtao Brewery (600600sh, 0 168hk) (quotation)
Exclusive supplier of Beijing 2008: Vantage (002035) (quotation, information), etc.
For the above-mentioned related companies, we are most optimistic about A-share companies that have great opportunities to benefit before, during and after the meeting. Such enterprises may take the Olympic Games as the stage. To realize the dream of a world-class enterprise: Tsingtao Brewery (600600sh, 0 168hk), Yanjing Brewery (000729sz), Bank of China (60 1988sh, 3988hk), China International Airlines (601kloc-0/.
In addition to the above companies, companies concerned about the great role of the Olympic Games in building brand value, such as Vantage (002035), China Petrochemical (600028sh, 0386hk) and China Petroleum (0857hk), etc.
2. Grasp the investment opportunities brought by the Olympic economy to the industry.
The investment opportunities for the impact of the Olympic economy on China's economy are more from the perspective of the industry.
The main industries and related companies (some) benefited are as follows:
(Source: Securities Herald)
3. Grasp the investment opportunities of regional economy.
The promotion of the Olympic Games to the regional economy is very obvious, especially for the host city. When we examine the influence of Beijing Olympic Games on regional economy, we have to combine our current development plan. The State Council's Opinions on Promoting the Development and Opening-up of Tianjin Binhai New Area approved Tianjin Binhai New Area as a national comprehensive reform pilot zone, and determined the position of Binhai New Area in promoting regional development during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period. Binhai New Area will be built into the northern gateway of China, a high-level modern manufacturing industry, an R&D transformation base, a northern international shipping center and an international logistics center. Therefore, the Olympic Games and the development of Binhai New Area will bring new investment opportunities to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
The impact of the Olympic Games on the above three places is similar to that of the Olympic Games on Beijing, but we believe that the previous impact on Beijing is more reflected after the Olympic Games, mainly including the stimulation of consumption and the further development of export-oriented economy. One thing is certain: with the economic development, people have money, and the demand for consumer goods and social services is further strong.
Therefore, focus on Tianjin Port, Tasly, China Storage, Yufeng, Fucheng Wufeng and other companies.
4. Seize the opportunity of Olympic investors.
The more certainty, the weaker the game, and vice versa. For the theme of Olympic investment, the factors that have been made clear at present are: the economic contribution of the Olympic Games, the promotion of the Olympic Games to the stock market; Relatively uncertain are: the impact on the stock market, the time for individual stocks to benefit, and so on.
Through the analysis of the influence of previous Olympic Games on the stock market and the analogy between different sectors, from the perspective of Olympic theme investment, considering the performance release process of related beneficiary companies, we believe that at present, the market of listed companies that directly benefit from real estate and equipment has started, and this round of market will continue until the first half of this year, while listed companies such as services and consumer goods have some residual heat, but they have not yet fully developed. We expect that they will gradually appear in the second half of this year and will continue until 2008, and the brand will continue.
Considering the events of the Olympic Games, pay attention to the service and consumer goods related companies in advance and enter in advance. If it is a one-time benefit company, it is necessary to quit as early as possible, such as how many real estate companies.
The whole context of the whole Austrian investment theme is ultimately based on the performance of listed companies, grasping the impact of expected performance and actual performance on the stock price.
Third, pay attention to the company:
(Source: Securities Herald) Guolian Securities Zhang Peng
Source: Securities Guide
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