At present, there is no relevant report on Heyuan poultry breeding market. I have an article about the future prospects of poultry breeding in China. You can refer to it and modify it according to the local conditions. I hope I can help you!
It has been two years since the chicken market was depressed in May 2008. In 2008, we didn't feel the crisis coming. Everyone thought it was a normal adjustment of the industry and it would soon pass. So everyone still sings, dances and sings all their lives. At the beginning of 2009, a medium-sized poultry enterprise expanded and established a new company in the northwest. I didn't expect to die miserably, and the company and employees didn't take any of the 2 million cash. To make matters worse, all the backbones of the enterprise are disheartened and left despondently. For breeding and hatching, the spring of 2009 is particularly cruel and difficult. By June165438+1October, small feed factories and distributors began to close down, and the hatchery began to stop production on February 65438. 20 10 in March and April, more hatcheries were closed. Especially the hatchery with the scale of 6.5438+0-20 million. Some friends spit out all the profits in 2007, owed a lot of debts, sold houses, divorced and sold cars. A good friend, the sales manager of an excellent domestic poultry enterprise, called me one afternoon at the end of April and said, "If I can earn back 80% of the losses, I will quit the industry completely." I think I am too.
I think there are several reasons for the economic downturn:
1. Transitional expansion within the industry. Including the profiteering market in 2007, many farmers put all their profits into expanding chicken coops and equipment, such as me; Including many bosses who are engaged in other industries and have abundant funds to enter the aquaculture industry in pursuit of profits, such as Ding Lei of Netease; More importantly, many feed industries and food industries have expanded on a large scale in order to avoid the economic crisis, extend the industrial chain and control terminals, such as Liuhe, Shuanghui and Tai Sen.
2. The impact of the financial crisis. Mainly psychological.
3. Some industries in the domestic economic structure are out of control, which leads to the high cost of housing, medical treatment and schooling for domestic people. They feel uncertain and unrealistic about the future and dare not spend too much.
4. The industrialization demand of raw materials, especially corn, causes the rigid growth of breeding cost, which is irreversible and will exist for a long time.
The fact that supply exceeds demand already exists, and it is imperative for the industry to survive the fittest. At present, China's economy is in a transitional period, and its economic structure is being adjusted, which is not yet a complete market economy. In other words, the exit mechanism is not perfect, and redundant construction is inevitable, which is a vicious circle. 10 years, including the recent 1 1 and 12 years, no one laughed, only people cried and even burst into tears. Whispering is the boss who entered the aquaculture industry on the other side. The biggest feature of petty capitalists is speculation. 1 year does not make money for two years, and resolutely withdraws in the third year. They have invested a lot of money, and quitting won't hurt them. They were also the first to quit the industry. Because aquaculture also has the essence of aquaculture, only by grasping the essence of the industry can we gain a firm foothold in the industry. The essence of aquaculture in China can only be understood after several years of immersion and reflection. If the boss didn't get up from the aquaculture industry and didn't make friends with the farmers, it would be difficult to understand thoroughly. The hardest thing to quit is small businesses and farmers, whose assets are all on it. However, due to the expansion of monopoly enterprises, production will become more and more concentrated, and small enterprises and farmers will be at a disadvantage in market, capital, technology, management and utilization of national policies, and their competitiveness will become worse and worse. At present, the fully automatic henhouse with 65,438+10,000 chickens can be completed by only two skilled workers, and the advantages of farmers in the past are immediately gone.
I visited the live chicken market yesterday and called some friends all over the country. I found that the live chicken market withdrew from the central area of big cities, and gradually withdrew in small and medium-sized cities because of epidemic prevention and health. The market space has been greatly compressed. The loss of main consumption sources will make the sales of live chickens in trouble. The main sales market of yellow feather broilers is live chicken market. The gradual disappearance of the market is a very realistic and severe problem for yellow-feather broilers. Driven by leading enterprises, the yellow feather broiler industry must carry out nationwide influential publicity and guidance in the direction of the whole industry. It is the yellow feather broiler industry that embarks on the slaughter line, cold chain production, establishes industry barriers, implements differentiation strategy, and highlights the strategy of high quality and good price. Only in this way, can the industry develop and grow, and the precious local resource varieties in China will not be strangled in infancy by foreign varieties. Although Jiangnan is still consuming live chickens, it will eventually change to industrialization.
In recent years, with the gradual transformation from semi-industrialization to industrialization in China, the white feather broiler industry will have more room for development, and the number of farmers will show an inverted "V" curve. I think that around 2020, after China basically completes the industrial economic transformation, the number of free-range households will gradually decrease or even disappear. It will form a large-scale, intensive and monopolistic industry situation. By then, the quality and income of personnel engaged in aquaculture have been greatly improved.
At present, the biggest problem of white feather broilers is "drug residue". Environment and management are the most fundamental solutions. But the competition is so fierce that survival is a problem. How can there be enough money, thought and energy to invest? The density is getting bigger and bigger, the environment is getting worse and worse, epidemics are becoming more and more frequent, the market is getting more and more depressed, and the benefits are getting worse and worse, which is a vicious circle. This is largely due to the national policy guidance, the supervision of animal husbandry disease control management institutions, and the large-scale expansion of leading enterprises. In fact, raising chickens is a very important link in the food industry, which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood. Like other industries, a certain access system should be established. For example, the regional breeding density exceeds the standard limit, the breeding facilities and environmental protection facilities system, and the staff training system. Guide farmers to embark on the road of scientific and healthy breeding, and prevent blind entry into the industry from leading to disorderly and vicious competition in the industry. However, this situation will only change after the country makes up its mind or something serious happens. Among the current broiler breeding varieties, 8 17 is a variety with China characteristics. I think there is a lot of room for development in the present 5- 10 years. If a group of outstanding leading enterprises focus on, steadily and actively lead the people to do it, they can completely divide the market and profit from the white feather broiler market. The premise is that there is a professional breeding company to carry out serious breeding, and white dysentery detection is the most basic. Adopting the mode of "company+farmer" to promote, produce pollution-free broilers, slaughter and seize school canteens, large factory canteens, small and medium-sized city markets, township dried vegetable shops and rural weddings and funerals markets. At present, the market industrialization of 8 17 is clearer than that of yellow-feather broilers, but the characteristics that large enterprises can't afford it are still obvious.
There are not many "company+farmer" models for laying hens, but the free-range farmers of laying hens are definitely the first to quit this industry. After 5- 10 years, it is difficult to sell eggs without "pollution-free certification" in the market. Nowadays, many super-large feed enterprises have set foot in the laying hen breeding industry, and they are going upstream. Many chicken farms with 200,000-200,000 feathers have been built nationwide this year. One market is worth hundreds of farmers, and facilities management is in step with the international situation. Not to mention green certification and pollution-free certification, the supermarket terminal is open again, and it is difficult for farmers to compete. Relevant small feed factories, veterinary drug factories, feed distributors and veterinary drug vaccine distributors must be transformed into broilers, otherwise it will be difficult to support their families. At present, eggs sold in super-large egg farms are sold at a loss and branded. It is normal to lose millions or tens of millions a year. When reporting at the end of the year, the boss also praised: our market share has increased. Can free-range households afford it? This year, the national average of corn has exceeded 1 yuan, breaking through the bottom line of many farmers' hearts. 10 There will be many empty henhouses in the second half of the year. 10 is a threshold for laying hens. Some people may say that without chicken farmers, the price of eggs will rise. Wrong. There are fewer chicken farmers, but the absolute amount of farming has increased. At the beginning of May this year, Sun Hao, who met in Shandong, said: "20 10, the total number of parents in Yukou will increase by 20% this year."
I think the national economy is at a turning point, and the industry has encountered an unprecedented bear market, which is also a period of great industry integration. Take advantage of the fact that the oligarchy of the country and industry has not yet formed, that is, when the princes of all walks of life have not yet been crowned, act quickly, and there is still a chance to break through and seize a piece of territory.
(1) Control your own scale to the scale that you can effectively control, do not blindly expand, reduce costs through internal management, and promote brand sales. Be a local leader in a small place. Occupy the right place and the right time, but there will be a certain living space. In northwest China, Xiaoming poultry industry in Ningxia occupies the first brand of laying hens industry, which is a typical example. I have a dealer in Xinjiang, Sister Wang, who sells 400 tons of feed and 200,000 chickens a month. Her husband is a good veterinarian, selling medicine as a service, and crowding the local 300-kilometer market. Why? When other manufacturers want to enter farmers at low feed prices, her feed is also reduced to protect the capital, but chickens and veterinary drugs make money; When chickens from other manufacturers enter the market at low prices, she gives away veterinary drugs and makes money from feed; One-stop enterprises entered the market with feed and chickens, but the after-sales service could not keep up. The chickens died in a mess and the feed money was not recovered. She also has a unique skill, which can unite feed and chicken seedling manufacturers to drive away competitors overnight, but she is not injured at all.
(2) Seize the opportunity to cooperate with excellent enterprises with strong strength or become a part of their production chain. There will be many invisible champions by relying on big trees. Our enterprise has also developed in this way. Laugh, don't say much. I also heard that the manager of Rip Southwest sells 80 million yuan a year? Great, great. This is an example of success by relying on big trees.
(3) Make differentiated products. It will not be industrialized to make some broilers in the market with fierce competition for laying hens, raise high-quality pheasants in the market with fierce white feather broilers, and also raise some local fine varieties such as baifeng black chicken, local black chicken, black chicken, bone chicken, oily chicken and chicken.
(4) Using local policies and support to explore new business models, you can also break out of your own world.
In a blink of an eye, it's 20 1 1 and it's summer again, and my friend's poultry company is temporarily closed, and my enterprise is undergoing a great transformation. I'm thinking, I don't hatch chickens in summer. Will you hatch them in winter? Will corn drop to the previous 70 or 80 cents? Will chicken farms, hatcheries and farmers still gamble on the market? In fact, we are not betting on the market, we are betting on youth. Bloom's youth has a bitter taste. . . The ebb and flow of life and the years. . . The wind of youth blows gently, making me tired but not regretful!