Just before the arrival of the two-day holiday, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries and commissions intensively investigated and prepared policies to promote consumption, and some policies focused on tourism and cultural consumption and new consumption.
In the past month, the Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion and the Department of Circulation Development of the Ministry of Commerce went to Chengdu, Fujian and other places to investigate the related work of consumption upgrading and consumption promotion.
A series of consumption policies "combination boxing" can be expected. "At present, China's epidemic prevention and control has achieved significant strategic results, and the consumer market has entered the peak season of' Golden September and Silver 10'." The head of the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce recently said.
According to Ctrip. Com predicts that the pent-up demand for travel for nine months may erupt within eight days, and this year 1 1 month will become the first tourist peak and consumption golden week in the whole year.
"It's almost winter, there may be a second wave of epidemic this year, and epidemic prevention is the first wave. Under this circumstance, from official policies to people's willingness to consume, it may lead to the suppression of aggregate service consumption. " Su Jian believes that the possibility of retaliatory consumption this year is relatively small, and even if retaliatory consumption occurs, it will have to wait until next year.
Give play to new consumption
"Golden September and Silver 10" is the traditional peak consumption season. Since the beginning of this year, consumption has been hit hard by the COVID-19 epidemic. It was not until August that the retail sales of social consumer goods achieved the first positive growth in the year. "Consumption has become the weak link in this round of economic recovery." Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference on September 16 that consumption is an important engine of economic development. At present, the development of new consumption has great potential and broad space. The next step will be to promote the development of new consumption from two aspects: "expanding capacity and improving quality" and "optimizing environment".
At the same time, a new wave of coupons came. On September 18, Shanxi Province announced the issuance of 500 million yuan coupons, including not only accommodation, catering and retail, but also entertainment and tourism for the first time. The executive meeting held by the Taiyuan Municipal Government of Shanxi Province recently requested that consumer vouchers should be accurately put in, the real verification work should be done seriously, and the whole process should be supervised to ensure that good things are done well.
Fujian Province will also launch the "Fitness Consumption Season", and plans to issue160,000 yuan sports coupons to the people of the province. The first batch is planned to issue 5 million yuan on September 26th.
On September 2nd, the Heilongjiang Provincial Government held a special meeting to study and promote the expansion of consumption recovery in key areas such as tourism, commerce, agriculture and rural areas. The meeting pointed out that preferential tickets for scenic spots should be used to attract tourists, a series of activities such as "Kuihui Golden Autumn Longjiang Shopping Season" should be carried out, special consumption such as winter fashion should be expanded, and electronic coupons should continue to be distributed in a convenient and effective way to make the consumption stimulus policy more targeted.
"Consumer vouchers are mainly used by the government to transfer part of fiscal revenue in exchange for the improvement of consumers' short-term payment ability. This kind of promotion is often one-off and cannot change consumers' expectations of future income. For places with poor financial conditions, the pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure may increase in the short term. " Fu Yifu said.
Su Jian also believes that it is difficult to issue one-time coupons as a conventional tool to promote consumption. "Because it is not aimed at a specific group of people, it is not a necessity. If the coupon is to ensure the basic life of low-income people, it is a relief policy, which is conducive to maintaining social stability. Low-income people have great willingness to consume, so it can be implemented for a long time. "
The momentum of consumption recovery has been further consolidated.
The consumption data in August achieved the first positive growth this year. 15 In September, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 3357 1 100 million yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. Among them, offline consumption recovered steadily-catering revenue decreased by 7% in August, which was significantly narrower than that of last month, and the decline of hotel accommodation turnover in star hotels was also narrowing.
According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first week of National Consumption Promotion Month, the total sales of key participating enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 3.7% month-on-month, among which the sales of shopping center services increased by 7% month-on-month, and the turnover of catering enterprises increased by 1.5% month-on-month.
"With the continuous implementation of the policies of" six stabilities "and" six guarantees "and the measures for preventing and controlling normalized epidemic situations, a series of activities and measures to promote consumption have been thoroughly organized and implemented, market sentiment has steadily rebounded, business order has been fully restored, consumption potential has been continuously supplemented and released, and the momentum of consumption recovery has been further consolidated." On September 17, the head of the Consumer Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce said when talking about the consumer market situation in China from June/KLOC-0 to August.
Fu Yifu believes that the recovery momentum of the consumer market will certainly continue. It is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods will continue to increase while maintaining positive growth. "According to past experience, during the National Day holiday this year, the entire consumer market will usher in a wave of obvious growth, including tourism, catering, entertainment and other industries, and compared with the same period last year, the total growth this year may be the same as last year, even exceeding the same period last year."
"Promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand is a protracted war." Fu suggested that cities with conditions should actively develop tax-free economy, speed up the construction of duty-free shops in the city in conjunction with relevant enterprises, and promote the return of consumption abroad. At the same time, he also pointed out that the next step is to further support the survival and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises to stabilize people's employment. With a stable job, they can have a stable source of income and solve the worries of consumption.
Su Jian emphasized that all localities should pay more attention to consumption in the context of the central government's request to "build a new development pattern with domestic large circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other." Consumption is the purpose of all economic activities. Overinvestment exceeds people's spending power, which will eventually lead to overcapacity and redundant construction. Promoting consumption can stimulate investment and improve the productivity of enterprises, and the economy will achieve synchronous growth from both demand and supply.