The questioner has seen the deep-seated contradictions in the current economic and social development, so he asked this question. Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, the government, while striving for "six stabilities", has emphasized that the proactive fiscal policy is more active, and the prudent monetary policy is more flexible and appropriate. Fees, rent reduction and interest reduction, loans and other measures actively help enterprises to bail out and promote enterprises to resume work and production. At present, the spread of the epidemic has been effectively curbed, and the economic and social order has gradually returned to normal. However, we have not seen the retaliatory rebound of consumption, but prices have risen accordingly. If we don't start from the demand side, face up to the reform of deep-water areas, speed up the reform of national income distribution, labor security, land and other aspects, increase investment in people's livelihood, improve total demand and boost consumption, I am afraid it will be difficult to resolve the current dilemma.
For enterprises operating normally, the impact of the epidemic is temporary, and it will soon pass with the help of the government. High-debt enterprises that are already facing operational difficulties can also obtain low-cost loans to survive. But the crux of the problem is who are the products and services sold to? Now the epidemic is spreading around the world, the global industrial chain and value chain are out of order, and the world economy is facing the risk of recession. In the first two months of this year, the total volume of imports and exports decreased by 11% year-on-year. In the case of blocked exports, domestic demand is more important, consumption is sluggish, and no matter how wide fiscal and monetary policies are, they will not play a positive role, but will aggravate structural contradictions. When the economy is hit hard by sudden factors, it is an effective way to enter administrative purchase through loose fiscal and monetary policies, but it will also push up asset prices and cause inflation if it is not used well. This is also the reason why governments would rather implement negative interest rates than adopt fiscal policies to stimulate the economy.
In response to the economic shock caused by the epidemic, many countries and regions first think of treating the economy from the demand side. Hongkong and Taiwan Province have distributed cash and shopping coupons to residents, and the United States is deploying assistance to the working class affected by the epidemic in addition to the government's allocation of 8 billion yuan in relief funds. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, our economy was dragged down by consumption, and the lack of demand led to financial idling and virtual reality, and the life of physical enterprises became more and more difficult. In February, the sales volume of mobile phones was less than 511,111, far lower than 1.27 million in the same period last year. Car sales dropped by 92.8% compared with the same period last year. According to the statistics of China's housing sales in 27 key cities, the volume of new residential buildings in February dropped by 77% compared with the same period of last year, and Wuhan and Chongqing even set a record of zero transactions.
if the consumer demand is not effectively restored and boosted, even if the enterprise returns to work, it will face the problems of production capacity, product backlog and blocked sales, and cash flow will become more and more difficult. Therefore, how to deepen the reform of distribution system, improve labor security and increase investment in people's livelihood is the key to get out of the current economic dilemma.