Holiday economy appeared with the first "Golden Week" in China. 1999 In September, with the development of China's national economy and the improvement of people's living standards, the state decided to increase the leisure time of the broad masses of workers and extend the rest time of the three most important festivals in China's life to seven days, and the concept of "Golden Week" came into being. In the eyes of the tourism management department, this. In the minds of ordinary people, this is a rare holiday for tourism and leisure. As a result, on the occasion of the May 1 Golden Week, the tourism management department and the vast number of consumers who have not made any material preparations flocked, resulting in "overcrowding" of parks, scenic spots and historical sites, constant "complaints" about famous mountains, beautiful waters and scenic spots, and "unusually full" of transportation, accommodation and travel agencies ... The wonderful time was not enjoyed, and then mature consumers had taken a happy and well-rested way and made conscious arrangements. Through the analysis of the above process, we can see that the upcoming Golden Week will be a calm, peaceful and colorful long holiday after experiencing the "fanaticism", "calmness" and "maturity" of the first Golden Week. People will adopt more diversified ways and means to spend this wonderful time with more reasonable time. Faced with such a problem, let me analyze what is the holiday economy from the perspective of economics, what are its causes, and how to make the holiday economy develop more continuously, stably and by leaps and bounds. First, the economic meaning of "holiday economy" Strictly speaking, "holiday economy" is not a personal capital, but in the face of this phenomenon that has objectively existed in social life, we might as well define holiday economy as a comprehensive economic model in which people use holiday shopping, tourism and other consumption behaviors to drive supply increase, market prosperity and economic development. To understand this concept correctly, we must realize that "holiday economy" cannot be simply understood as "holiday economy", let alone "tourism economy". It includes tourism, leisure and entertainment, involving commodity consumption, tourism service consumption and cultural consumption. To a higher degree, as a kind of leisure consumption, it is not only the embodiment of labor value, but also the promotion of labor value. Marxist political economy holds that production, exchange, distribution and consumption are the four links of social reproduction. As an important part of consumption, living consumption refers to maintaining its own survival through the consumption of means of subsistence and the production of labor force active in the other three links. With the development of economy and the improvement of living standards, the consumption of living has increasingly developed from a purely material level to a spiritual level. Workers can reduce stress, cheer up, broaden their horizons and increase their knowledge through consumption. This is not only a higher level embodiment of people's value as human beings, but also a dynamic process of improving their own quality. From this perspective, the development of "holiday economy" should not only focus on business and tourism, but also give play to its cultural connotation. During the May Day, Nanjing theaters organized more than 100 performances, including operas, symphonies and essays. The average attendance rate is over 90%, and it has received more than100000 person-times, which has not only realized its own economic benefits, but also produced good social benefits. This is a good example. Second, the reasons for the emergence of "holiday economy" in China. Any economic phenomenon must have its specific economic, social and cultural background. In recent years, the phenomenon of "holiday economy" in China is mainly based on the following reasons: First, with the reform and opening up, the social productive forces have developed rapidly and the income level of residents has been greatly improved. International experience shows that the per capita annual income exceeds 500 to 800 dollars, which is the period of rapid expansion of tourism consumption. From 65438 to 0999, the per capita income of urban residents in China was 5854 yuan, which has reached about 500 dollars, and in some cities it reached 1000 dollars. It can be said that China has entered the threshold of tourism expansion. Second, the increase of people's leisure time. 1999 the State Council decided to increase citizens' holiday time, reaching 1 14 days throughout the year, accounting for 3 1.2% of the total number of days in the year. In a sense, the quality of holiday consumption determines whether the consumer market is sunny or sunny in a year. Third, the change of people's consumption concept. Influenced by traditional morality and years of hard life under "shortage economy", most people in China pay more attention to accumulation than consumption, especially spiritual consumption and the improvement of life quality. In fact, this is suitable for low income levels. Engel's law shows that with the increase of income level, the proportion of low-grade goods and basic consumer goods in total expenditure will decrease, and the proportion of cultural and educational expenditure of high-grade goods will increase greatly. With China entering the period of "relative surplus economy", under the influence of government and media measures, residents' consumption concept has gradually changed. Without this, the "holiday economy" is impossible. Fourth, most markets in China are dominated by buyers, and there are more and more kinds of goods and services. During the "May Day" this year, Suning's GSP will surely stir up the market again and revive the rush to buy household appliances. Suning subverts the rules of the holiday economy game. The Golden Week market has always been a battleground for businesses. Suning has a heavy position. Suning Appliance will purchase tens of thousands of mainstream models in the market at one time from domestic and foreign major household appliances enterprises by virtue of the national chain advantage and the opportunity of joint attack by the three stores. During May Day, Suning Appliance will adhere to the principle of "GSP" which has always been advocated. The three stores jointly created the new coordinates of home appliances in Bincheng, which made most consumers feel the shock of Suning's low price. I understand that Suning Appliance has prepared a sufficient number of special models for May Day sales, and nearly 10,000 sets of ultra-low-priced household appliances have formed heavy firepower, which will be put on the market at a rare low price. In the high-end product line, due to Suning's unified national procurement mode and its scale advantage, the price of LCD TVs will be reduced wildly, and the price of domestic 42-inch plasma will be reduced by 1 10,000 yuan, while digital TVs only sell flat-panel TVs. In ice washing, Suning and Haier joined hands to take the lead in selling two ultra-thin LCD rollers in Suning during May Day, and made an appointment to sell them back to 500 yuan. In addition, the ice washing joint manufacturers launched cash back, trade-in and other activities. The healthy, fashionable, energy-saving and quiet "Four Excellent Air Conditioners" advocated by Suning will also make waves during May Day, and the mainstream brand 1P machine will fall below 1000 yuan. On April 30th, Suning launched "Happy Mobile Taobao Night". 18, Motorola, Nokia, Amoi, Bird and other domestic and foreign first-line brands jointly staged a low-price sales drama ... Suning made such great efforts to let more consumers in Bincheng experience the shocking experience brought by high-end parity. Generally, it includes the problem of determining consumption function in western economics. According to Keynesian theory, actual consumption expenditure is a stable function of actual income, that is, C = C0+C * Y. When the problem of food and clothing is solved, that is, C0 is basically stable, on the one hand, residents' income level Y continues to increase, on the other hand, the change of consumption concept makes marginal consumption tendency change, which makes consumer demand C increase, which becomes the premise of "holiday economy". On the basis of people's sufficient leisure time and more and more consumption choices, "holiday economy" is formed. Third, the "holiday economy" and its problems bring us profound thinking 1. The coordination of tourism supply and demand should conform to economic laws. Supply and demand are the most basic and eternal topics in economics. During the International Labor Day holiday on May 1 2000, many famous scenic spots were overcrowded and some tourists complained, which actually reflected that the demand for tourism resources was in short supply. However, it cannot be concluded that the supply of tourism resources should be expanded as soon as possible, but should start from both supply and demand. From the perspective of supply, we should pay attention to the remarkable characteristics of tourism, that is, the great seasonal elasticity. 90% of the time capacity of the famous tourist attractions market in China is surplus, and 10% of the time supply is seriously insufficient. If we blindly expand the scale, it will inevitably lead to idle resources and seasonal unemployment of employees in the off-season of tourism, resulting in new waste. At present, the feasible measures are to adapt to the general law of tourism changing from leisure to holiday, and to expand the comprehensive reception capacity and radiation of regional scenic spots. From the demand point of view, it must be guided and standardized. First of all, we can expand residents' holiday consumption areas to meet local consumption needs; Secondly, different industries and regions can adopt "holiday separation" and "flexible working hours" to solve conflicts, so that tourism resources can be used in a balanced way; Thirdly, tourist attractions can implement differential prices in light and peak seasons, enable price leverage, and realize market regulation. Look at the relevant reports and you will understand that the price of tickets for scenic spots in various places has increased, the hotel market has been swept away, and vendors have sharpened their knives, not to mention cars, boats and planes ... Facts have proved that holidays have brought "economy" and "gold" to these industries, and of course local finances have also gained considerable income. It is not unreasonable for the whole country to have a long holiday and a large number of tourists to travel to stimulate consumption and promote the economy. However, after all, it is a minority of holidaymakers who choose to go on holiday, and more people still choose to rest at home. Don't go out, or because you can't afford it, or you can't stand the crowds. Most people don't participate in consumption, so this "holiday economy" is debatable. If it weren't for the National Day holiday, people would concentrate on traveling, would food, housing, transportation, travel and shopping in various places skyrocket? If it is not unbearable and overcrowded, will more people go out of their homes? Without this concentrated influx of people, can the protection of tourist attractions reduce the pressure? Can business operations be balanced? Why should we artificially expand the tourist season? If the paid vacation system is implemented so that people can choose more flexible vacation methods, there may not be a "golden week", but it can continue to stimulate consumption, promote the economy and reduce the additional costs brought by concentrated vacation tourism. Why not? I made a small-scale opinion poll, and 60% of the citizens chose to stay at home, 30% insisted on traveling, and the rest 10% wanted to visit relatives. Those who work overtime on holidays have no complaints. The first three days of the long holiday are three times the salary of legal holidays, and the last four days are twice the salary of legal rest days. Guangdong, a wealthy province, actually boasted that Haikou would raise its salary by four times. It seems that the small regret of not being able to travel can also be made up. 2. While paying attention to the "quantity" of the economy, we should pay more attention to the "quality" of the economy. What happened during the "May Day" holiday gave great enlightenment to related industries. The business, tourism, transportation and cultural service industries suggest that we should strengthen the research on the laws of economic operation, do a good job in market research, improve economic management and improve services in order to improve economic efficiency. This is a good signal, which not only shows that the overall quality and competitiveness of related industries are expected to be improved by this opportunity, but more importantly, it reflects the role of demand in promoting economic quality. Porter, an American economist, pointed out in his famous theory of national competitive advantage that a country's competitive advantage is determined by production factors, demand factors, supporting industries and their auxiliary factors. As far as demand factors are concerned, it mainly includes three aspects: first, demand, second, the level of demand, and third, the promotion of demand. High-level and picky consumers with strong market awareness are valuable assets for the development of this industry in China. As a spur, their consumption demand can provide a steady stream of power for the self-development and self-innovation of enterprises. In China's economic practice, the role of demand has been paid enough attention, but its qualitative role has not been paid enough attention. "Holiday economy" reminds us to strengthen the guidance, training and education of consumers, improve China's consumption level, and let demand play a role in promoting the "qualitative" leap of the economy. Moreover, it should be recognized that this role is different from the role of demand, and it can provide positive energy for the benign development of the economy, whether in the period of overheating or austerity. 3. Start consumption in a more scientific, reasonable and mature way. As mentioned earlier, the emergence of China's "holiday economy" conforms to Keynes's consumption function theory, that is, consumption is influenced by residents' current income. However, it is obviously not enough to realize this. In western economics, Friedman's hypothesis of sustained income is an important theory about the determination of consumption function. The theory holds that the change of consumption is not directly affected by temporary income, but a stable function of lasting income, that is, only temporary income affects lasting income can affect consumption. Due to the complexity of residents' consumption psychology, although these two theories are opposite, they are complementary to some extent. Applying this theory to "holiday economy", let us ask such a question: How to make the "pulse" of holiday consumption become a sustained driving force to promote economic development? Undeniably, the May Day consumption boom contains the factors of residents' conformity curiosity, but with the continuous maturity of people's consumption psychology, it is unknown whether such a "holiday economy" can last. Therefore, the "radical" way to start consumption is not just to take a few long holidays, but to create a good consumption environment. At the same time, through a series of supporting reforms such as taxation, medical care, education, housing, social insurance, etc., people's income expectations can be really improved, so as to start consumption. Fourth, the policy of increasing public holidays and increasing public investment is the sustainable driving force for the prosperity of holiday economy, and the increase of public holidays is 1. The positive significance of increasing public holidays is that extending holidays is beneficial to economic development. According to the provisions of China's labor system, Chinese citizens have 1 14 days of public holidays every year. The extension of holidays is beneficial for people to use holidays for consumption and stimulate economic growth. From the perspective of microeconomics, the length of consumption and leisure time is related to the interaction between wealth effect and substitution effect. With the development of social economy, science and technology, the improvement of production function increases social wealth, and the wealth effect makes it possible to consume more with less labor. At the same time, the substitution effect urges people to work more to increase consumption. With the development of economy, the accumulation of wealth makes people have more leisure time to spend. With the further development of economy, the substitution effect and wealth effect brought by the improvement of labor productivity cancel each other out, so the leisure time has not changed much, but the consumption has continued to increase. At present, China's GDP is growing at an average annual rate of 8%, the income of urban and rural residents is also increasing year by year, and the Engel coefficient of urban and rural households is decreasing year by year, which provides an opportunity for China to vigorously develop the holiday economy (see table 1). Annual per capita net income of rural households (yuan), Engel coefficient of rural households (%), per capita disposable income of urban households (%), Engel coefficient of urban households (%) 1999 22 1 0.352.500025486 7.76859.638.2 20022475.646.27702.837.7 Table 1: Per capita net income of urban and rural households and Engel Taking 2000-2002 as an example, the total number of outbound tourists in China was 744 million and 7. In the past three years, the number of outbound tourists in the Golden Week was 65.438+0.26 billion, 65.438+0.83 billion and 26.5438+0.90 billion respectively, accounting for 654.38% of the number of outbound tourists in the whole year. The comprehensive income of related tourism accounts for 23.2%, 24.6% and 22.3% of the annual income respectively. According to the real economic cycle theory of macroeconomics, the improvement of production function is continuous due to the positive role of scientific and technological development and capital productivity improvement. The positive effect of wealth accumulation on consumer demand promotes the occurrence of consumption. At the same time, consumption is pro-cyclical, and the development of consumption can further expand consumers' demand for goods, thus promoting the effective improvement of production function. As a result, output rose and real interest rates did not change much. Residents' holiday leisure consumption can promote the development of railway, civil aviation, road passenger and freight transportation, catering, hotels, retail, advertising, communications, banking and other related industries. According to the consumption theory, the consumption of one industry can drive the consumption of related industries at the same time. Taking the "May 1" and "Eleventh" holidays in 2004 as an example, holiday tourism contributed 654.38+0.6 billion yuan and 654.38+0.85 billion yuan respectively. Railway passenger revenue also reached11.40 billion yuan and1.1.50 billion yuan in the same period. Statistics from the Ministry of Internal Trade show that during the "Eleventh" holiday from 65438 to 0999, the retail sales of key large enterprises nationwide 100 reached 8.2 billion yuan, up by 20.9% year-on-year. During the Spring Festival in 2005, the number of short messages sent in seven days exceeded 654.38+000 billion. During the Spring Festival, more than 165438+ 10,000 people went out to eat at the New Year's Eve in Beijing, and the turnover on that day was about 80 million yuan. The "snowball" effect produced by a series of related consumption activities has made the whole "cake" of holiday economy bigger and bigger, which has promoted the all-round development of the tertiary industry. 1.2. Increasing holidays is conducive to increasing employment opportunities. With the progress of society and the development of science and technology, economists point out that developed countries such as the United States have entered a post-industrial society. The most important structural change is the change from commodity economy to service economy, which leads to the decline of manufacturing status. In the past 20 years, the economies of major western developed countries have basically completed this transformation. Take Canada as an example. 70% of Canadians are engaged in service industries related to transportation, education, medical care, banking, consulting and tourism. The growth of the tertiary industry, which mainly focuses on leisure and entertainment services, is an important part of the transition to post-industrial economy. Since the reform and opening up in China, the economy has been developing continuously, and the contribution of the tertiary industry to the whole GDP is increasing. The prosperity of the tertiary industry has also promoted the steady development of the primary and secondary industries. The purpose of increasing public holidays in China is to promote consumption and prosper the economy, and the development of the tertiary industry has become the key to achieve this goal. At present, the development of the tertiary industry in China is still in the primary stage, and many potential jobs have not yet been developed. With the continuous development of the tertiary industry, many new jobs will be created, which will play a great role in alleviating the employment difficulties of laid-off workers in China and maintaining social stability. 2. The policy of increasing public investment has great potential in developing holiday economy. At present, China's annual public holidays have reached 1 14 days, accounting for almost one-third of the total number of days in the year. The quality of holiday economy directly affects the economic prosperity of a year. At the same time, as a measure to expand domestic demand, the development of holiday economy should fully consider the realistic possibility of increasing financial strength, so that the holiday economy can further prosper on a reliable material basis. The potential of strengthening the public investment policy in the development of holiday economy is mainly manifested in the following aspects: First, the public investment policy has a strong sense of identity and has basically reached the understanding of * * * *, with low cost and good effect in the implementation process. Public investment policy mainly holds public projects in the form of government expenditure, such as building some non-profit or low-profit basic industries and infrastructure, such as urban public housing, water supply, power supply, communications, transportation, parks, river and lake management, water conservancy projects, etc., which has the characteristics of overflow monopoly. In the reality that China has continuously used various monetary policies to stimulate the economy, but it is far from achieving the expected policy effect, it will be an appropriate policy tool to implement a proactive fiscal policy, especially to strengthen the public investment policy with the expansion of public project expenditure as the main content. By increasing policy investment on a large scale and focusing macroeconomic policies on large-scale infrastructure investment to stimulate economic recovery, social demand can be directly formed without the corresponding response of enterprises and individuals, thus producing policy effects that monetary policy does not have. Judging from the lag of policy, fiscal policy has more advantages in expanding demand. Moreover, strengthening infrastructure construction requires a large amount of funds and a long construction period. There is room for the role and time of public investment policy, which can continuously expand investment demand and improve supply, and constantly create good supporting facilities and external environment for the development of holiday economy. First, the implementation of public investment policy has achieved certain results and accumulated rich experience. For example, in public investment, equipment procurement emphasizes the use of domestic products; In the case of limited funds in the central budget, measures such as expanding the issuance of construction bonds, converting joint-stock enterprises into state-owned shares, and deducting investment tax were taken to expand the sources of funds. Encourage private investment in infrastructure construction such as expressway, realize diversification of investors, broaden direct investment channels and stimulate investment demand. Under the background of large-scale issuance of national debt, the proceeds from the issuance of national debt are basically used for public investment in infrastructure and other aspects. These measures effectively solve the problem of insufficient production funds in government investment, provide financial guarantee for accelerating infrastructure construction and strengthening public investment policies, and prepare realistic conditions for eliminating the "obstruction" and restrictions of holiday economy by "bottleneck" departments such as transportation. Second, the cost of public investment policy is relatively low, the opportunity cost is low, and the fiscal policy tool is highly malleable. The so-called policy opportunity cost refers to other benefits that are abandoned when implementing economic policies. This can be measured by cost, which can be material cost, such as manpower, material resources and financial resources; It can also be a spiritual cost, such as social contradictions caused by policy implementation. Compared with financial subsidies, public investment policy is more flexible in seeking supply and demand, because government expenditure has obvious rigidity, that is, "ratchet effect". Since infrastructure investment is a non-recurrent financial expenditure, raising funds by issuing treasury bonds can flexibly expand and reduce the annual investment scale according to the macroeconomic prosperity of the year, which can not only produce a strong policy effect against the economic cycle, but also reduce the scale of issuing bonds and reduce the debt burden in economic prosperity. In addition, because the investment expenditure will form the corresponding state-owned assets, making the national debt and state-owned assets form a symmetrical state, so the national debt at this time has the nature of "virtual" national debt. At present, the balance of China's national debt is low, the debt stock is high, and the savings rate is high. There is still some room for manoeuvre in expanding the scale of national debt. Increasing the public investment policy by issuing additional treasury bonds can not only solve the problem of insufficient government construction funds, but also effectively solve the problem that financial institutions cannot expand high-quality assets. In addition, the rise of holiday economy has increased the demand pressure on infrastructure. Under the current deflation, large-scale construction can reduce the cost of advanced collective projects and financing, and it is timely to strengthen the implementation of public investment policies. It can be seen that strengthening the public investment policy can promote the long-term development of the holiday economy, and at the same time bear less costs, which is an ideal tool for implementing a proactive fiscal policy under the current situation. 3. Analysis of the effect of increasing public investment policy on the development of holiday economy Obviously, increasing public investment policy will have a positive effect on the development of holiday economy. First of all, increasing public investment belongs to the policy of "pumping water". When the economy is depressed, it can automatically restore the vitality of the economy by paying a certain amount of financial funds. Countries that increase public investment policies can stimulate the prosperity of holiday economy by starting consumption and investment in both directions. Through the construction of infrastructure projects, we can not only absorb labor and create employment opportunities, but also increase residents' income, stimulate consumer demand and provide a material basis for the development of holiday economy. At the same time, it can quickly increase the scale of investment, directly expand the demand for social investment, stimulate economic growth, improve the weak and lagging infrastructure, and provide good supporting facilities and services for the development of holiday economy. Secondly, the increase of government expenditure and the holding of public projects are conducive to expanding the administrative effect of fiscal policy to promote private investment. Because infrastructure projects are generally capital-intensive and the government's financial funds are limited, the right to operate infrastructure projects can be transferred by means of financial discount, government holding shares, financial guarantee, etc., so as to fully mobilize and absorb idle social funds to participate in investment, expand investment demand, and provide conditions for increasing employment and personal income, and finally expand consumer spending. Thirdly, by strengthening the cooperation between public investment policy and monetary and financial policy tools, providing credit support and guiding the development direction of holiday economy. While promoting tourism, wedding and shopping consumption, banks pay attention to supporting the development of industries closely related to "holiday economy" such as municipal construction, transportation and communication, which will provide financial support for the further prosperity of "holiday economy", provide a realistic basis for the coordinated use of fiscal policy and monetary policy, and help realize the diffusion effect of public investment policy. Of course, strengthening the public investment policy will also bring some negative effects to the development of holiday economy. For example, the funds invested by the public will reduce the consumption expenditure and reduce the consumption demand of the holiday economy to a certain extent.