In recent days, the natural gas and LNG markets have been quite lively. On the one hand, the supply of natural gas is in short supply, many places began to limit the gas, Shijiazhuang is the start of the natural gas supply emergency plan; on the other hand, due to the lack of gas, LNG prices began to soar, and continue to hit new highs.

In view of the current market situation, the Development and Reform Commission will convene a LNG price cautionary meeting today to ensure that the LNG market price during the winter peak period is basically stable.

Industry believes that with the promotion of "coal to gas" and the increased use of clean energy, the future consumption of natural gas will continue to increase, LNG prices are also expected to enter a rising cycle.

Many places in Hebei province are in a state of supply emergency

Because of the shortage of natural gas, many places in Hebei province are in a state of natural gas supply emergency.

The reporter learned that recently, the Shijiazhuang Municipal People's Government Emergency Management Office issued a "notice on the start of the natural gas to protect the supply of emergency plan," said this year, with the city's prevention and control of atmospheric pollution and "coal to gas," and other clean energy substitution work, the city's natural gas demand has increased rapidly, and the city's demand for natural gas, the city's natural gas supply has been reduced by the upstream PetroChina natural gas supply. Recently, by the upstream CNPC natural gas supply reduction impact, suppression of the city's natural gas supply, resulting in natural gas market gas source tension, in accordance with the "people-oriented, people's livelihood first" principle, decided to start the natural gas supply emergency plan.

According to the "Notice", by the new Austrian gas is responsible for stopping all industrial enterprises production gas; by the city management committee is responsible for stopping all social vehicle refueling services, limiting non-peak period buses, cabs refueling services; gas heating enterprises financial low-temperature operation.

Some Shijiazhuang citizens also received a text message notification that the city government, Xinao Gas Company emergency notice, the city's natural gas emergency, will be time to cut the heating company's natural gas consumption targets, the impact of which heating will be forced to run at low temperatures, the relevant responsible departments are actively coordinating.

In fact, before the Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission has started the province's natural gas demand-side management mechanism, on November 28th zero hour into the province's natural gas supply orange warning. This means that the supply of natural gas in Hebei Province has been in a state of serious tension. The orange warning is second only to the red warning, meaning that the province's supply and demand gap of 10 to 20 percent.

According to the reporter's understanding, from September, North China, East China and other places in the terminal pipeline gas gas volume tightened, PetroChina side of the implementation of gas restrictions, involving Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and other regions.

In addition to gas restrictions, due to the gas supply exceeds demand, into the heating season, Beijing, Shanxi and Jiangxi have raised non-residential natural gas station prices one after another, the range of about 10 percent.

Development and Reform Commission data show that in January-October this year, natural gas consumption of 186.5 billion cubic meters, up 18.7 percent. During the same period, natural gas production of 121.2 billion cubic meters, up 11.2%; natural gas imports of 72.2 billion cubic meters, up 27.5%.

Analysts told reporters that since this year, by the air pollution prevention and control efforts to increase and northern clean heating and other factors, natural gas consumption has significantly warmed up, entering the winter since the growth rate is faster.

Development and Reform Commission or to intervene

In the context of natural gas demand exceeds supply, from September, LNG prices soared. After entering the heating season, the price is a day a price.

On December 1, the LNG listing price hit a record high of 9,400 yuan/ton, and the average price of LNG around the world has also exceeded 7,000 yuan/ton.

The reporter learned that the Development and Reform Commission issued a "notice on the deployment of liquefied natural gas price regulations and policies to remind the admonition will be", in order to regulate the liquefied natural gas (LNG) price fluctuations, to ensure that during the winter peak period of the liquefied natural gas market prices are basically stable, the Development and Reform Commission will be deployed in the relevant provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities of the competent departments of the price to convene a natural gas price regulations and policies immediately to remind The NDRC will uniformly deploy the relevant provincial and municipal price authorities to immediately convene a natural gas price regulations and policies to remind and caution the LNG production and circulation enterprises and relevant social organizations within the jurisdiction to strengthen price self-discipline and regulate price behavior.

Development and Reform Commission also emphasized in the notice, shall not fabricate walking price increase information, shall not maliciously hoarding coaxing prices, shall not be price fraud, shall not collude with each other, manipulation of market prices; shall not be abuse of dominant market position, shall not be monopoly agreements, shall not be implemented by other people set up the situation of the price of illegal behavior and price monopoly, otherwise the price authorities will be in accordance with the "Price Act", "Antimonopoly Law The relevant provisions of the serious investigation and punishment.

And LNG prices have been rising due to the oversupply of natural gas.

"The main reason for the big rise in LNG prices is still the gas tension and strong demand." Zhuochuang information analyst Liu Guangbin told the Securities Daily reporter that there are also some factors such as rising costs.

"It is difficult for the NDRC to directly intervene in the price, and LNG is after all a market-oriented product." He added.

Zhao Chen, an analyst at Orient Securities, believes that the root cause is the "coal to gas" to bring the rapid growth of natural gas, especially LNG imports are much higher than the growth rate of domestic consumption.

He also pointed out that industrial coal-fired boilers still need to transform 148,000 tons, 3.6 times the amount of this year's transformation, civil "coal to gas" in North China has not been transformed 27 million households, 9 times the amount of this year's transformation, according to the neutral assumption that this part of the transformation is completed in the next five years. This will bring a total of 11.8 billion cubic meters of incremental demand per year, will drive the future growth rate of the overall consumption of natural gas in North China more than 15%. In the context of future domestic supply constraints, demand will not be a problem, and even in the long term, LNG prices are also expected to enter a rising cycle.