About the general trend

On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index just stood at 3,411 points, and some online uploads were about to enter a technical strength. As a result, the volume of A shares was adjusted on Wednesday, and the decline in the late session continued to expand. How to interpret it? Recently, the main line of the strongest auto stock has collapsed in a large area. How to deal with it?

1. Look at the situation on the disk: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high of 3,414 points in early trading on Wednesday, and then it dived, and the decline in late trading continued to expand. In terms of sectors, real estate and large infrastructure projects have made a comeback, and the strong tourism integration and hotel catering ushered in differentiation on Tuesday; Recently, the main line of the strongest car suddenly collapsed, and there was a wave of down limit in the session. If investors just chased high, they must have eaten a bowl of noodles, which is another step away from returning to the original.

Auto stocks led the market down all day, while track stocks such as new energy photovoltaic wind energy and military industry also collectively plunged. Nearly 4,111 stocks fell in the two cities, with the turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion, a new high since the current round of rebound, and a small net sale of funds in the north was 1.683 billion. The most heartfelt stock market joke came out on the Internet:

2. From the perspective of individual stocks, Shenzhen O-film Tech Co.,lt opened at a daily limit, the company issued a statement, and Nanchang Shenzhen O-film Tech Co.,lt was officially removed from the entity list of the US Department of Commerce. It is worth noting that after the "second child" of auto stocks was released, the "third child" Zhejiang Shibao was "recruited into the palace", and the management's intention to cool down was obvious. Many high-end stocks in the session fell sharply: Jitai shares, Yaxing Bus, Baoxin Technology, Iceberg Hot and Cold, Zhongda Lide and other fried boards; An Kai Bus and Zhenbang Intelligent hit the limit and staged the "Sky Floor". Zhenbang Intelligent had 7 consecutive boards before. Changan Automobile's daily limit has exceeded RMB 16 billion, which actually triggered the downside risk before a record amount of diving. How to identify it?

The share price of Weilai, a Hong Kong stock, plummeted, and Weilai Singapore shares fell nearly 9% after the resumption of trading. Grizzly bear research, a short-selling institution, released a report saying that Weilai Automobile is likely to use Wuhan Weineng, an unincorporated related party, to exaggerate its revenue and profitability (Weilai responded that the report has no factual basis)

Grizzly Research, a short-selling institution, previously published a report saying that Weilai imitated Valeant-style accounting games and achieved its goal by exaggerating its revenue and improving its net profit margin. The agency said that Weilai may use the unincorporated related party to exaggerate its income and profitability, and clearly pointed out the role played by Wuhan Weineng, saying that the company helped Weilai to continuously achieve high growth and profit expectations. This unincorporated related party has created billions of dollars for Weilai. The agency also alleged that Li Bin, chairman of Weilai, was closely related to Liu Erhai and Joy Capital founded by Weilai, and the latter two were the core parties involved in the fraud case of Ruixing's performance.

In response, Weilai announced that the report was worthless, containing a lot of mistakes, unconfirmed guesses and misleading conclusions and explanations related to the company. The board of directors of the company, including the audit committee, is reviewing these allegations and considering taking appropriate actions to protect the interests of all shareholders.

Let's take a look at why A shares are like this.

In fact, there are many reasons for the decline, but the main reasons are as follows:

First, taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an example, the current round of upswing exceeded 551 points, and the strong leading sector rose by more than 61%, and more stocks doubled, indicating that this rise has accumulated a large number of profit-making discs, and short-term profit-making discs have cashed in demand.

the most important thing is that there has not been a big or decent adjustment since the current market rose for two months, which is not in line with the laws of nature, and there is a need for technical adjustment.

Second, the external market fell sharply overnight, and Hong Kong stocks fell to their knees, which also suppressed foreign investment emotionally and triggered market worries.

thirdly, it is rumored that China Merchants Securities will hold a strategy meeting. (This is a curse of A-shares, and you can't refuse to accept it.)

China Merchants Securities: The company will hold the 2121 annual general meeting of shareholders on June 31, 2122.

Fourth, the stock price of the main line of this round of market is overdrawn, especially the increase of automobile manufacturing is over 61%. For example, the share price of Changan Automobile has doubled in less than two months, which is really too hot and needs to be cooled down. In the news, the price of silicon has soared, which has formed a major suppression for the solar photovoltaic sector.

then why did it start to fall today?

1. After Zhongtong Bus, the demon king of cars, entered the palace for the second time, it still didn't let the funds for car speculation drop. Last Thursday, it was analyzed that Haiqi Group was also shut down, and if the fire continues, it may shut down Zhejiang Shibao. After 11: 11 on 12, the stock price of "Zhejiang Shibao" fluctuated abnormally, which has seriously deviated from the fundamentals and was suspended for verification. This is equivalent to the third time that the management clearly gave the market cooling signal. If you keep warning and ignore it, it will be hard ...

No matter what theme plate it is, you will die as long as you encounter supervision. Just remember last year's coal stocks. Last week, when Haiqi Group was locked up in a small black room, there were comments, but it took two days for the market enthusiasm to recruit it into the palace.

second, the quilt cover of the faucet indicates the management's intention to cool down. What's more, the assist of "Changan Automobile" is also a serious injury. That is, on Wednesday, "Changan Automobile" issued an announcement, and the actual controller and concerted parties of the company reduced their shares by more than 1%, and decided to sum up the share reduction plan in advance. Isn't this just to tell everyone that after this stock price surge, the major shareholder has cashed out and doesn't intend to sell it for the time being. What will you do when you see this news? ...

It's not really that there is something wrong with the fundamentals of Changan Automobile itself. The root cause is that it is too hot for a while, and the heat will "die". I think everyone knows that the formation of consistency is not far from death.

in terms of fundamentals, changan automobile is not bad. The net profit in the first quarter of this year was 4.536 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 431%, while the net profit of Changan last year was only 3.55 billion yuan. After nearly two months of stock price surge, the corresponding dynamic P/E ratio is only 11 times. This is also very low in the whole automobile stock sector.

Of course, the dynamic P/E ratio is the P/E ratio of the forecast net profit for the next year, which has not really been realized. Changan's 11 times dynamic P/E ratio is the annual net profit calculated by multiplying the net profit of a quarterly report by 4, so the dynamic P/E ratio calculated may not be scientific. However, if the annual net profit predicted by brokerage institutions is about 7.6 billion this year, the current dynamic P/E ratio is only more than 21 times. Whether this annual net profit can be achieved in the end is unknown now, but from the perspective of valuation, it is actually not high.

In addition, this year, Changan Automobile's new generation of new energy products will be intensively listed, including three heavy products in pure electric field, LUMIN, C385 and Aouita 11. In 2122H2, a UNI series hybrid vehicle and two CS series will be launched. Such fundamentals, in fact, is the main reason to support the surge of Changan Automobile. The reason why the huge limit was put on June 29 was that it was too hot in the short term and must be cooled down quickly; The big shareholder runs away, and everyone is afraid that everyone is choosing who to run faster than. Everyone must remember: during the main lifting period, most people who carry sedan chairs have the opportunity to get on the bus slowly, but when the main goods are shipped, they will go down quickly because they are fleeing for their lives!

What should we do next when the car stocks roll over collectively?

personally, I don't want to watch auto stocks for the time being in the short term, and stay where it is cool. Although Wednesday's adjustment does not mean that the auto stock market is completely over, the best honeymoon period has passed, that is, the stage of making money by buying a stock related to the auto industry chain with sufficient energy and capital has passed. After this heavy diving, some stocks will become short-term peaks, while the other companies with good fundamentals, good growth and reasonable underestimation are likely to take the opportunity to wash the dishes. If they look at the whole year for a long time, some stocks still have opportunities, but they need to be "golden."

Special reminder: It is not difficult to see from the disk that some flexible short-term funds have begun to realize the overheating of speculation. Some speculation logic seems to be unable to support a larger increase, while other relatively deserted and low-level theme sectors seem to have opportunities to speculate. Therefore, it is not difficult to choose high and low funds to seek some new short-term theme opportunities. Remember that the speculation of plate funds will rotate.

it's not easy to code words. Allies who pass by can like it and support it. Your support is the power source.

the last topic:

the decline in the volume of a shares is the end of the market?

although the China market will be affected by some changes when the external market is greatly adjusted, from a macro point of view, it is hard to say that the A-share market will end in terms of the current domestic monetary environment.

Because China's "investment clock" moves from recession in the first half of the year to weak recovery in the second half, while Europe and America are stagflation-like in the second half of the year, and may move from stagflation-like to recession; The China stock market's current cost performance ratio can be said to be the best in the world, especially Hong Kong stocks; Not only compared with overseas markets, but also compared with ourselves, the valuation is at a historical low level. With the improvement of fundamentals, the cost performance is very high, and the trend has not changed in the medium and long term. This adjustment is for a better upward trend. Economic data and performance verification of listed companies also take time.

from a technical point of view, after a round of sharp rise, even if it is adjusted to the vicinity of the 21-day or 31-day moving average, the trend force has not changed. We should rationally face the adjustment and manage the positions well, so there must be no market that only rises but does not fall. Moderate adjustment is inherently conducive to the subsequent market development. Next, it is suggested to continue the light index ups and downs, and emphasize the opportunities of individual stocks and sectors. After adjustment, there are still structural opportunities to grasp. On Thursday, we should first pay attention to whether the gap below is quickly replenished.

For allies who have missed this round of soaring prices, they can take this adjustment to make a good stock selection. There are still many underestimated high-growth varieties in the whole market.

regarding the operation

during the shock period, "scientific position control" is still needed to resist the risk of market adjustment, and it is best to continue to adopt the position strategy of 33: 33: 33. How to understand this position management strategy?

1, that is, the "bottom position" strategy of about 33%: this fund can continue to stick to the principle of "killing good companies by mistake", and this kind of fund mainly focuses on long-term value investment. Of course, value investment does not mean that regardless of the ups and downs, it is just to keep track of the latest fundamental changes of the company, especially the performance of this year's interim report. If this round rises too much, such as Changchun Gaoxin and Opcom, if S points are issued in a short period,

2, that is, the strategy of "moving positions" of about 33%: the fund will continue to look for new opportunities of hot topics, and it can continue to be a dynamic stock when there are short-term new topics. This kind of fund mainly runs fast and has a fast pace.

3. The "idle" strategy of the remaining 33%: that is, the fund mainly rests during the shock period. When the market falls sharply or stops falling after the sharp adjustment, it can be used to make a T or seize some short-term opportunities. This requires a little T strength. If the hands-on ability is weak, simply let this part of the fund rest temporarily and arrange it after re-heating.