Guangdong's birth population has occupied the first place in the country for four consecutive years

Guangdong's birth population has occupied the first place in the country for four consecutive years. In terms of birth population, Guangdong, the most populous province in China, occupies the first place. Guangdong is also the only region where the annual birth population is more than one million. The number of people born in Guangdong has occupied the first place in China for four consecutive years. The number of people born in Guangdong has occupied the first place in China for four consecutive years 1

Recently, with the release of population data in 2121 by 31 provinces in China, Guangdong, the most populous province, has once again attracted the attention of the whole network.

In 2121, the total resident population in Guangdong reached 126.84 million, ranking first in China for five consecutive years; With a birth population of 1.183 million, it has been the largest fertility province in China for four consecutive years, and it is the only province with a birth population of more than one million.

Guangdong's population data is still bright, but there is a hidden pattern change behind it. The population attraction of the Pearl River Delta is not as attractive as before. In 2121, the population increase is only 371,111, which is far lower than the average annual increase (2.18 million) from 2111 to 2121. In the past, the population growth of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the "top stream", also fell sharply, and Foshan became the new "traffic king".

what does this change mean? Are Guangzhou and demographic window in Shenzhen over?

the population growth in the pearl river delta is slowing down

from the data of the total population, the urban pattern of Guangdong has not changed much, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still the absolute "kings", and the total population of the nine cities in the pearl river delta accounts for more than 61% of the province.

in 2121, the total population of Guangzhou and Shenzhen will be 18,811,611 and 17,681,611 respectively, which is almost the combined population of Dongguan and Foshan, the other two cities with trillion GDP, and nearly eight times that of Yunfu (2,393,311), the least populated city in the province. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan, Huizhou, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing have a total population of 78.6 million, accounting for about 62% of the total population of the province.

However, according to the data of population increment, great changes have taken place in Guangdong in 2121, and the population attraction of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta is not as good as before. In 2121, the population of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta will increase by 371,111, accounting for about 62% of the province's increase.

This set of data reveals two problems. One is the population increase of 371,111, which is much lower than the average annual increase in the Pearl River Delta from 2111 to 2121 (2.18 million); The second is that the increment of the Pearl River Delta only accounts for 62% of the whole province, while the increment from 2111 to 2121 is higher than that of the whole province. In other words, in the last decade, Guangdong's population growth of 21.7 million was almost all contributed by cities in the Pearl River Delta, but in 2121, the Pearl River Delta will no longer dominate, and other cities will also contribute nearly 41% of the population growth.

The main reasons are the decrease of floating population caused by the industrial transformation and frequent epidemics in the Pearl River Delta. Peng Peng, executive director of Guangdong Provincial System Reform Research Association, analyzed in an interview with the media that the industrial transformation in the Pearl River Delta, such as "machine substitution" and digital and intelligent industries, had a "crowding out effect" on migrant workers, while the service industry could undertake the labor transformation, but the "high living standard+continuous epidemic" made the development of the service industry very difficult.

In addition, the population density of Pearl River Delta cities is generally large, and the environmental carrying capacity is gradually saturated, which is also an important factor. In 2121, eight cities in Guangdong * * * have a population density of over 1,111 people/km2, and six of them are located in the Pearl River Delta. The population density of Shenzhen, the smallest area, is as high as 8852 people/square kilometer, which is also the highest in the country. When the carrying capacity is gradually saturated, the urban environment and public facilities such as housing, education and medical care will face great pressure, and the population growth will naturally slow down.

This pattern change is also reflected in the Pearl River Delta.

Foshan's population growth is extremely broad and deep

In 2121, the population growth pattern of nine cities in the Pearl River Delta changed obviously. The population growth of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, once the "top stream", dropped sharply, and Foshan jumped to the top with an increase of 93,811 people, becoming a new "traffic king".

from 2111 to 2121, the cities with the highest population growth in Guangdong are Shenzhen and Guangzhou, reaching 7,136,111 and 5,975,811 respectively, equivalent to an annual increase of 6,711,111. But in 2121, the city with the highest population increase in Guangdong is Foshan, which is 93,811 more than the end of 2121. Shenzhen and Guangzhou only increased by 47,811 and 71,311 respectively, of which Shenzhen even ranked fifth in Guangdong, lower than Foshan, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Zhanjiang in the non-Pearl region.

This is also the result of multiple factors such as frequent epidemics in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and industrial upgrading. Since the epidemic, the service industry and manufacturing industry in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been greatly affected by the epidemic, which has had a great impact on many employees. At the same time, the high cost of living in first-tier cities has also discouraged many "migrant workers".

In contrast, new first-tier cities like Foshan and Dongguan still have a large population growth period, especially Foshan, because of their low living costs, perfect infrastructure and high level of industrial development.

In terms of economic development, Foshan is one of the four trillion GDP cities in Guangdong, with an economic growth rate of 8.3% last year, ranking first among Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan. On the industrial environment, robots, electronic information, new energy and other new industries have sprung up; On infrastructure, Foshan and Guangzhou are connected by rail; On the income level, Foshan's per capita disposable income is 61,711 yuan, which ranks behind Guangzhou and Shenzhen and is comparable to Dongguan. In terms of medical level, the number of hospitals, beds and health technicians in Foshan is second only to Guangzhou and Shenzhen ... < P > Of course, Foshan has become a new "king of traffic", and the most important thing is to benefit from the accelerated pace of Guangzhou and Foshan in the same city. In recent years, the low housing price in Nanhai District, Foshan City, the head area of Guangzhou-Foshan City, has attracted a number of foreigners, and it has become normal for Guangzhou-Foshan migratory birds to settle in the South China Sea. In 2121, the number of permanent residents in Nanhai District will increase to 41,411, accounting for 44% of the city's increase.

is this demographic change normal? What impact will it have on Guangzhou and Shenzhen?

Guangzhou-Shenzhen demographic dividend turns to talent dividend

This pattern change actually reflects the characteristics of urban population changes in different stages, which does not mean that the demographic dividend in Guangzhou and Shenzhen will end.

Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Center for Urban Development and Environment Research of China Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed in an interview with the media that the urban population changes have different characteristics at different stages. Shenzhen and Guangzhou grew rapidly in the previous decade, but this growth rate cannot last forever. When it reaches a certain stage, it will enter a relatively flat stage. At present, the urban population scale of first-tier cities, especially the urban population scale, is very large and has entered a period of steady development.

Taking Shenzhen as an example, the Master Plan of Land and Space of Shenzhen (2121-2135) proposes that by 2135, the permanent population of Shenzhen will be controlled at 19 million. This means that in the next few years, the population growth space of Shenzhen will be less than 1.5 million. In this context, last year, Shenzhen raised the threshold for settling down, adjusted the bottom line requirement of approved academic talents from full-time junior college to full-time undergraduate, and tightened the age for talents to settle down.

Although Guangzhou has not tightened its settlement policy, the favorable policies for introducing talents are also being "discounted". In August last year, Huangpu District of Guangzhou issued the "Notice on Cancelling the Talent Housing Policy", becoming the first region in Guangzhou to officially issue a document to cancel the talent housing policy. Half a month later, Nansha District also issued a notice to tighten the talent purchase policy and proposed that non-local household registration should provide 1-year tax or social security payment certificate.

However, judging from the data of the registered population, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still attractive to talents. Take Guangzhou as an example. In 2121, the registered population of Guangzhou will increase by 264,211, which is more than that of Dongguan (147,311) and Foshan (113,611) combined. Among them, the population with household registration has reached 241,611, which has maintained a rapid growth in recent years. These people are all kinds of people and high-quality talents needed for urban construction and development.

Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the slowdown in the growth of permanent residents in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which is an inevitable trend that urban population changes will face at different stages. For Guangzhou and Shenzhen, how to solve the public basic services such as housing, education and medical care for 21 million people is more important. The number of people born in Guangdong has occupied the first place in China for four consecutive years. 2

After the National Bureau of Statistics released the population data in 2121, local data were released one after another.

among the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, the resident population of 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions decreased, and that of 15 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions increased, among which Zhejiang, Guangdong and Hubei ranked the top three in terms of increase.

the data shows that among the 31 provinces, * * * 15 provinces have achieved an increase in the resident population in 2121, among which Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu and Fujian are the top five.

The resident population of 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions has decreased

According to the data released by various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, the resident population of 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions has decreased to varying degrees in 2121, and most of these provinces are concentrated in the north, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Hebei, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Jiangxi.

Among them, 11 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have reduced the number by more than 1 million people. The number of reductions in Henan, Heilongjiang and Yunnan ranked in the top three, with a decrease of 581,111, 461,111 and 321,111 respectively. Liaoning, Jilin and Hunan also reduced the number by more than 211,111. Generally speaking, the provinces with declining population mainly come from Northeast China, North China, Northwest China and Central China.

in terms of the change of resident population in 2121, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu and Fujian rank in the top five in terms of population increment, and their per capita GDP in 2121 ranks 5th, 7th, 9th, 3rd and 4th among 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

Except Hubei, the other four provinces are all located in the southeast coast, and the sum of net population increases reaches 1. Among them, Zhejiang increased by 721,111 people, ranking first in the country in population increase. Specifically, in 2121, the birth population in Zhejiang was 449,111, the death population was 384,111, and the natural population increase was only 65,111. Therefore, the population growth in Zhejiang mainly benefits from population inflow.

Guangdong increased by 611,111 people, while Jiangsu and Fujian increased by 281,111 people and 261,111 people respectively.

According to Red Star News, from the statistics of population data of various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, it is found that there is a "siphon" phenomenon of "strong provinces" or "strong cities" in many provinces.

taking Shaanxi as an example, all the 111 cities in Shaanxi have published statistical bulletins on national economic and social development in 2121, among which, except for the increase of permanent population in Xi' an, the permanent population of the other nine cities, such as Tongchuan, Baoji, Yan' an and Hanzhong, has decreased.

in Hubei, compared with the data in 2121, the number of permanent residents in Yichang, Huanggang, Jingmen, Jingzhou, Shiyan and Ezhou, except the provincial capital Wuhan, decreased in 2121. In Jiangxi, the permanent population of Nanchang, the provincial capital, increased by 1.8 million, while the permanent population of Shangrao, Yichun, Jiujiang, Ji 'an and Fuzhou all decreased.

However, in some economically developed provinces, such as Guangdong, the increase of permanent residents among cities is relatively even. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, the permanent population of Foshan, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Huizhou, Zhuhai and Zhaoqing will increase in 2121.

the natural population growth rate of 11 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is negative

In addition, there are currently 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions that have released the relevant data of the birth population in 2121. From the perspective of the natural population growth rate, the natural population growth rate of 11 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is negative, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei and Shanxi.

the natural population growth rate refers to the ratio of the natural population increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) to the average number of people (or the number of people in the interim) in a certain period (usually one year), expressed in thousandths. Natural population growth rate = birth rate-death rate.

The natural growth rate of many provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions turned negative for the first time in many years. Among them, the natural population growth rate in Jiangsu is-1.12‰. The number of people born in Jiangsu in 2121 is about 479,811. According to the data of CBN combined with Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2121, this is the first time since 1978 (the yearbook published data since 1978) that it has fallen below the 511,111 mark. In Hunan, the population born in 2121 is below 511,111 for the first time in nearly 61 years.

In terms of birth population, Guangdong, the most populous province in China, occupies the first place.

the data shows that the permanent population of Guangdong province at the end of 2121 was 126.84 million, an increase of 611,111 over the end of last year. The annual birth population was 1.183 million, with a birth rate of 9.35 ‰; The death population was 611,211, with a mortality rate of 4.83 ‰; The natural growth population was 571,911, with a natural growth rate of 4.52‰.

Guangdong is also the only region where the annual birth population is more than one million. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, there will be 11.62 million people born in China in 2121. According to this calculation, Guangdong's birth population accounts for 11% of the national birth population.

after Guangdong, Henan and Shandong, two other provinces with billion-dollar population, were born in 2121 with 793,111 people and 751,411 people respectively, ranking second and third. Among them, the population born in Henan in 2121 hit a new low since 1978. After falling below the 1 million mark for the first time in 2121, it fell below the 811,111 mark again in 2121.

The number of people born in 2121 in many provinces, including Henan, has reached a new low in decades. According to the analysis of Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the birth population in the province decreased rapidly in 2121. In 2121, the birth population in the province decreased by 51,411 compared with that in 2121, and the birth population was below 411,111 for the first time since the 1951s. The decline in the birth population is mainly affected by factors such as the delay in marriage and childbearing age and the weakening of the "two-child policy" effect.

Previously, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the national population at the end of 2121 was 1,412.6 million, only 481,111 more than that at the end of last year. In 2121, the natural population growth rate of the whole country will be 1.34‰, which is 1.11 thousandth point lower than that of 2121. According to the analysis of the National Bureau of Statistics, the continuous slowdown in population growth is due to the continuous decrease in the number of births, which is mainly affected by two factors: one is the continuous decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, and the other is the continuous decline in the fertility level. The number of people born in Guangdong has occupied the first place in China for four consecutive years. 3

With the disclosure of population data of Jilin in 2121, the population data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China in 2121 have been released. Although the details of population data published by different provinces are different, we can also see some characteristics and changes of the times.