There are typical problems in Namibia's re-economy.

affected by the global economic slowdown, Namibia's economic growth rate in 2117 was 3.8%, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than that in 2116.

I. Economic operation of industries

In 2117, Namibia's economic growth was broad-based, and all industries showed positive growth, especially the secondary industry. Due to the decline in diamond production, the growth rate of the primary industry has slowed down. It is estimated that Namibia's economic growth rate will increase to 4.7% in 2118, mainly due to the strong rebound of primary industry output caused by the increase of uranium production. However, concerns about the stability of Namibia's power supply and the expected increase in the global economic recession will have a certain negative effect on Namibia's economic growth.

(I) Primary Industry

The growth rate of Namibia's primary industry decreased from 7.9% in 2116 to 1.1% in 2117, in which the growth rate of mining and quarrying industry decreased from 15.4% to 1.4%, the growth rate of agriculture and forestry decreased from 4.2% to 3.2%, and the performance of the fishery sector continued to deteriorate, although the decline rate decreased from 4.8% in 2116. Due to the improvement in the output of the mining and agricultural sectors, the growth rate of the primary industry is expected to be 6.5% in 2118.

1. Mining

Although the price of mineral products in the international market continues to rise, the growth rate of output value of Namibia's mining and quarrying industry decreased from 15.4% in 2116 to 1.4% in 2117 due to the decline of output value of diamond mining and other mineral products.

(1) Diamond

Diamond production is still the pillar industry of Namibia's economy, accounting for about 8.1% of GDP and 38% of the output value of the primary industry. Correspondingly, the development of the diamond industry has also had an important impact on Namibia's economy. Due to the closure of some small factories by Namibian Diamond Company, the growth rate of diamond output decreased from 25.2% in 2116 to 1.3% in 2117.

driven by the growth of offshore drilling output and strong demand for diamonds, Namibia's diamond output value is expected to increase by 6.1% in 2118. Considering the international factors, the demand in the diamond market will increase by 7.8% due to the growth of demand in China and India. On the other hand, without the discovery of new diamond mines and the shortage of global supply, the supply cannot fully meet the demand growth. Due to the existence of excess demand, the prices of rough diamonds and processed diamonds will remain stable. It is estimated that the actual price will increase by 2% to 5% every year, while the price of high-quality diamonds will increase by 11%.

(2) Other mineral products

Overall, the output value of other mineral products has improved compared with 2116, and the growth rate has changed from a decrease of 11.2% in 2116 to an increase of 3.1% in 2117.

the output of copper increased from 11.4% in 2116 to 3.8%, and the decline in growth rate was mainly due to the flood disaster in 2117 which affected the normal production of a copper mine, resulting in a decline in output. The output of zinc increased by 5.8% from the decrease of 19.5% in the previous year. The output of uranium decreased from 8.1% in 2116 to 1.5%, mainly due to the failure of mechanical equipment and the degradation of geological conditions, which affected the normal production.

influenced by the increase in the output of uranium and gold, the growth of other mineral products in 2118 is expected to be 21.8%. The emergence of new uranium mines in 2118 and the full-load operation of existing uranium mines will greatly increase uranium production. The expansion of uranium production is mainly stimulated by the nuclear power demand of Brazil, China, Eastern Europe and India. The demand for gold in 2118 will continue to be strong in 2117. According to the report of the International Gold Council, the current financial crisis will have a direct impact on the international gold market. As a safe haven for investment, the demand for gold has risen strongly. The output of zinc and copper will further increase due to the price increase caused by demand. On the other hand, the shortage of power supply will have a negative impact on the output of mining industry in 2118.

based on the above factors, the mining industry growth in 2118 is expected to be 11.8%, which is obviously improved compared with 1.4% in 2117.

2. Agriculture

In 2117, agricultural output remained stable, although the growth rate was lower than that in 2116. Due to the drought in the rainy season in 2116/17, the growth rate of the grain sector decreased from 11.1% in 2116 to 2.6% in 2117. However, the improvement of livestock trading volume (cattle and small livestock) offset the slowdown in the agricultural sector.

mainly affected by the price increase, especially the price of mutton increased by 9.1%, and the severe drought in the south led the government to allow small livestock ranchers to increase the export of live animals by 21.1% according to the slaughter in 2116. In 2117, the small livestock market increased by 1.9% compared with the previous year.

3. Fisheries

The poor performance of the fishery sector in the past three years continued until 2117. In 2117, the fishery output decreased by 1.4% compared with the previous year, although it was better than the decrease rate of 4.8% in the same period of last year. The decrease is mainly due to the increase of catch, the increase of fish size and the increase of price.

in 2118, the fishery sector has mixed prospects. Due to the improvement of prices and reserves, the prospects for cod production are promising. However, in 2118, the total allowable catch decreased by 31%, and the stock decreased by 11,111 tons to 535,111 tons compared with the previous year, so the forecast of the output of bamboo pod fish is not optimistic. The oyster industry is expected to show positive growth, and the output of oysters has been increasing in the past few years, reaching 27.3 million in 2117. However, the phenomenon of seawater red tide in 2118 and the strict import standards of oysters in the European Union will have a certain negative impact on oyster production. Based on the above, the output of the fishery sector is expected to decline by 1.2% in 2118.

(II) Secondary Industry

In 2117, the performance of the secondary industry was exceptionally excellent, with an output increase of 5.9%, while the growth rate in 2116 was only 1.3%, which was mainly due to the growth of manufacturing, power supply, gas supply and water supply. In 2117, the output growth rate of manufacturing industry changed from 8.3% in the previous year to 4.9%. At the same time, the power supply, gas supply and water supply industries changed from 5.1% in the previous year to 3.5%, while the output growth rate of construction industry decreased from 32.5% in the previous year to 9.3%.

1. Manufacturing

The growth of manufacturing output is mainly reflected in the growth of meat products, fish products processing industry and other manufacturing sectors. In 2117, the meat product processing industry increased by 3.2%, while in 2116 it decreased by 11.6%. The increase in the output of the meat product processing industry was mainly due to the increase in market transactions caused by rising prices. On the other hand, despite the decline in market prices and the adverse effects of high oil prices, the favorable changes in exchange rates have led to an increase in the output of fish products processing industry. The increase in output of other manufacturing sectors is mainly driven by the increase in refined zinc output. In 2117, the refined zinc production capacity reached 1.51 million tons, and the increase in refined copper output was mainly due to the decrease in the price of raw copper imported from Bulgaria.

the output of dairy products and mineral products is expected to continue to grow due to the rising international market prices and favorable exchange rate changes, so the output of manufacturing industry is expected to remain stable in 2118, with a growth rate of about 5.3%.

2. Power supply, gas supply and water supply departments

In 2117, the output growth rate of power supply, gas supply and water supply departments was 3.5%, mainly due to the increase of domestic power generation. It is predicted that this department will continue to maintain a growth rate of 3.7% in 2118. Although the domestic power generation will continue to increase in 2118, the existing power supply can not meet the needs of further expansion of the mining sector.

3. Construction industry

Due to the rising borrowing cost of civil buildings, the growth rate of the construction industry's output value dropped sharply, from 32.6% in 2116 to 9.3%. The negative impact of high interest rates on the construction industry is partially compensated by the increase in government expenditure on capital projects, such as the renewal of tourist facilities and the extension of the northern railway.

It is estimated that the output of the construction industry will increase by 9.5% in 2118. Although the overall performance of the secondary industry is still good in 2118, the shortage of power supply will have a certain negative impact, and the degree of impact mainly depends on whether the preventive measures taken by Namibian Power Company can play an effective role.

(III) Tertiary Industry

In 2117, the growth rate of tertiary industry increased by one percentage point to 4.5% compared with the previous year, which was mainly reflected in the transportation and communication departments, hotels and restaurants, financial intermediary departments and government service departments. On the other hand, the growth of wholesale and retail, real estate and business services sectors has weakened.

1. Hotel and catering industry

The output value of hotel and catering industry increased by 1.9 percentage points to 4.1%, mainly due to the improvement of hotel utilization rate. In 2117, the bed utilization rate increased to 28.1%, compared with 24.1% in the same period of last year. In addition, the number of hotels also increased by 16.1%, resulting in an increase of 13.1% in the number of beds. Although the number of hotels has increased, the bed utilization rate has also increased. Part of the reason is the centennial celebration of Aituosha Park, which also shows that the tourism industry performed very well in 2117. Considering the upcoming African Cup of Nations and the World Cup in 2111, the prospect of this industry in 2118 is still optimistic.

2. Financial Intermediary Industry

The output of financial intermediary industry increased by 5.1% in 2117, up by 2.4 percentage points over the previous year, mainly due to the high profits made by the banking industry by rising interest rates. However, the increase in bad debts caused by high interest rates will have a certain negative impact on the industry. It is estimated that the growth rate of the output of the financial intermediary industry will drop to 4.5% in 2118.

3. Wholesale and retail industry

In 2117, the wholesale and retail industry showed positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down from 11.5% in 2116 to 5.1%, which was mainly due to the 1.1% increase in automobile sales in 2117.

4. Transportation and communication industry

In 2117, the output growth rate of transportation and communication industry decreased by 1.1 percentage point to 11.1% compared with the previous year, which was mainly due to the decline in the growth rate of transportation and storage industry, while the postal and telecommunications industries slowed down the downward trend. In 2117, the growth rate of output value of transportation and warehousing industry decreased by 3.7 percentage points to 8.1%, while the growth rate of output value of postal and communication industry increased by 1.7 percentage points to 12.1%. As the improvement of freight handling capacity in Walvis Bay and the gradual increase of transportation to Botswana and Zambia will make Namibia an important transportation and warehousing service provider in SADC region, the decline in the growth rate of transportation and warehousing industry is short-term. The postal and telecommunications industries continued to maintain steady growth. Driven by the expansion of transportation, warehousing and mobile telecommunications in 2118, the industry is expected to grow by 5.1%.

5. Government service industry

The government service industry performed well in 2117, and its output value increased from 1.1% in 2116 to 1.9%, which was mainly due to the influence of government service outsourcing. It is estimated that the industry will grow by 2.2% in 2118 due to the budget expansion in fiscal year 2118/19.

II. GNI and GNI

GNI increased from N $46.5 billion in 2116 to N $51.9 billion in 2117, GNDI increased from N $53 billion in 2116 to N $58.8 billion in 2117, and it is expected to reach N $66.2 billion in 2118.

in 2117, the nominal GDP was N $52 billion, an increase of N $5 billion compared with 2116, and it is expected to increase to N $58.3 billion in 2118.

in 2117, the actual per capita GDP increased from N $1,111 in 2116 to N $1,411 (converted to US$ 1,446 at the average exchange rate of 71,917 against the US dollar in 2117), and it is expected to reach N $1,911 in 2118. Although the per capita income has increased obviously, there are still serious problems in income distribution, mainly reflected in the Gini coefficient as high as 1.6, which shows serious polarization. The continuously rising Gini coefficient indicates that further effective measures are needed to improve the income of the poor.

III. Inflation

In 2117, Namibia faced serious inflationary pressure due to the soaring food prices and the rising international oil price. In 2117, the average annual inflation rate in Namibia increased from 5.1% in 2116 to 6.7%.

structurally, food, non-alcoholic beverages and transportation are the main commodities that cause price increases. The reasons for the rise in food prices can be attributed to the shortage of food supply caused by the use of biofuels, the rise in production costs caused by high oil prices, and factors such as the global shortage of dairy products. In order to stabilize prices, the Bank of Namibia adopted a tight monetary policy in 2117, raising its benchmark interest rate by 1.51 basis points.

In 2118, inflation pressure still existed in Namibia.

iv. trade and balance of payments

Namibia's foreign-related economic sectors performed very well in 2117, with a total balance of payments surplus of N $4 billion, mainly due to the large current account surplus caused by the sharp increase in mineral export income and SACU tariff income. It is estimated that the above favorable factors will continue to play a role in 2118, with a surplus of about N $764 million.

(1) Current account

The strong export of mineral products, net income from tourism-related services and SACU tariff revenue kept the current account in surplus in 2117, which was basically the same as that in 2116, reaching N $7.5 billion. However, the proportion of current account surplus in GDP dropped from 15.1% in 2116 to 14.8% in 2117, and it is expected to be 1.2% in 2118.

South Africa will import a large amount of building materials in 2118 to prepare for the 2111 World Cup, so the SACU tariff revenue will continue to increase, resulting in a large-scale surplus in the current account in 2118. However, the performance of other items in the current account, such as investment income and trade in goods, is uncertain. Therefore, Namibia needs to further reform, increase export competitiveness and reduce the cost of economic operation in the future.

1. Trade in goods

In 2117, Namibia's trade in goods showed a net import status, while in 2116, there was a surplus of N $611 million. It is estimated that the trade surplus of goods in 2118 will be N $511 million. In 2117, there was a deficit of N $411 million in the trade of goods, which was mainly due to a certain increase in imports compared with exports.

In 2117, imports increased by 21.8% to N $21.9 billion, while exports only increased by 14.5% to N $22.5 billion. The increase in imports is mainly due to