I. Comparative Analysis of Energy Consumption Structure between China and the United States
The US Department of Energy divides energy into liquid fuel, coal, natural gas, renewable energy, bio-energy and electricity. Compared with China, the energy types in the United States are more diversified, and renewable energy and bioenergy have been widely used in industrial, civil and commercial fields. Figure 1 shows that in 2008, 96% of the coal in the United States was used in industry (the proportion of coal consumption in China's industrial sectors was basically the same), and the coal consumption in other sectors was very small, among which the coal consumption in transportation was zero. For liquid fuel, 70% of liquid fuel in the United States is used for transportation, and 24% is used for industrial, commercial and civil consumption. In terms of natural gas, 48% of natural gas in the United States is used for industry and 30% for civil use. For renewable energy and bioenergy, 79% is used for industry, and 17% is used for civil use. As for electricity, 37% of the electricity in the United States is used for civil use, 35% for commerce, 28% for industry, and zero for transportation. As far as power loss is concerned, 37% of power loss occurs in the civil sector, 36% in the commercial sector and 27% in the industrial sector.
In order to facilitate the comparative analysis of energy consumption between China and the United States, China's economic system is divided into four major industrial sectors: industry, commerce, transportation and civil use. According to the availability of data, domestic energy sources are divided into coal, liquid fuel, natural gas and electricity. According to the definition of World Energy Committee, liquid fuel refers to kerosene, diesel oil, petroleum and any equivalent liquid fuel.
Figure 2 shows that in 2005, 95.3% of China's coal was used for industry, 0.7% for commerce, 0.3% for transportation and 3.7% for civil sector. In terms of liquid fuels, 74.6% of liquid fuels in China are used for industry, 5.6% for commerce, 18.9% for transportation and 0.9% for civil use. As for natural gas, 76% of China's natural gas is used for industry, 4.3% for commerce, 2.8% for transportation and 65,438+07% for civil sector. As for electricity, 78.6% of China's electricity is used for industry, 8.4% for commerce, 65,438+0.7% for transportation, 65,438+065,438+0.3% for civil sector. The consumption of four energy sources in China's industrial sector has exceeded 70%, especially coal, accounting for 95.3% in the industrial sector. It can be seen that the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in China will mainly exist in the industrial field. Compared with China, the energy consumption structure of the United States is more reasonable. Comparing per capita energy consumption with per capita GDP energy consumption can better explain the economic significance of this energy consumption structure.
Figure 3 shows that the per capita energy consumption of developed countries such as the United States and Japan is much higher than that of China, but the per capita GDP energy consumption of the United States and Japan is very low, only 0. 19 times and 0. 12 times that of China. This is mainly due to the rationality of energy consumption structure, the efficient use of energy by industrial production and the rapid development of tertiary industry in these countries. Indonesian industry, especially heavy industry, develops slowly, while the per capita GDP level is close to that of China, and the per capita GDP energy consumption is far lower than that of China, only 0.4 times that of China. The low value of RMB is one of the reasons for the high energy consumption per capita GDP in China, but the unreasonable energy consumption structure and low energy utilization efficiency are still the main reasons for the high energy consumption per capita GDP in China.
In addition, from the comparison between Figure 1 and Figure 2, the proportion of electricity consumption in the civil sector in the United States is 3.3 times that in China, and the proportion of power loss is the highest among the four sectors. The proportion of natural gas consumption in American civil sector is 0.8 times that of 65438+ China. Moreover, from 2005 to 2008, the total energy consumption of the United States was 1.5 times that of China, and the population of the United States was less than 1/4 of that of China. It can be seen that the per capita energy consumption of American residents is much higher than that of China. According to the production space and carbon dioxide treatment space (in direct proportion to energy consumption), the per capita ecological footprint in 2005 was 10 hectare in the United States, 2 hectares in the world and only 1 hectare in China. The economic operation mode of mass production and mass consumption in the United States and the national culture with high production efficiency and low consumption efficiency are the main reasons for the high proportion of energy consumption in the American civil sector, which is not worth learning.
The following will analyze the consumption structure of all kinds of energy in 42 sub-industries in China, so as to grasp the consumption structure of all kinds of energy in China from a meso level and formulate operable industrial energy conservation and emission reduction plans.
2. Analysis of energy consumption structure of 42 industries in China in 2005
Referring to the consumption statistics of 9 kinds of energy in 48 industries in China Energy Statistical Yearbook, and comparing with the departmental classification of input-output tables of 62 departments in China in 2005, according to the needs of project research, China's economic system is divided into 4 major industries and 42 departments. By analyzing the consumption structure of various energy sources in various industrial sectors and the energy consumption per unit GDP in various industrial sectors,
coal consumption
In 2005, the distribution of coal consumption in various industrial sectors in China was quite different. 80% of coal consumption is concentrated in the following industrial sectors: electricity, thermal production and supply sectors consume the most coal, accounting for 48.7% of the total coal consumption. The coal consumption of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry accounts for 8.8% of the total coal consumption; The coal consumption of petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing departments accounts for 8.7% of the total coal consumption; The coal consumption of nonmetallic mineral products industry accounts for 7.7% of the total coal consumption; The coal consumption of coal mining and washing industry accounts for 6% of the total coal consumption. 4% of coal is used for daily consumption. Compared with the consumption structure of coal, the distribution of coke consumption in various industrial sectors is more concentrated. 85.3% of coke is consumed in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; 6.9% of coke consumption is in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing.
The unit energy consumption of main products in several industrial sectors with high coal consumption in China is compared with that in the United States and Japan. In 2003, the comprehensive energy consumption ratio of cement in China and Japan was 1.4 1, the comparable energy consumption ratio per ton of steel was 1. 12, and the comprehensive energy consumption ratio of power supply in thermal power plants was 1.22. 1994, the ratio of raw coal electricity consumption in China and the United States is 1.84. Compared with Japan and the United States, which have a high level of industrial energy saving, China, a big coal consuming country, still has great potential for coal saving.
Consumption of various liquid fuels
86.5% of China's crude oil consumption is in petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries; 8.4% of crude oil is consumed in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing. 50.9% of gasoline consumption is in transportation, warehouse and postal departments; 18.9% of gasoline consumption is in other service departments; 6.3% of gasoline consumption is in the consumption field; 6.2% of gasoline consumption is in wholesale, retail, accommodation and catering. 8 1.9% of kerosene consumption is in transportation, storage and postal services; 9.9% of kerosene consumption is in other service sectors. 45.7% of diesel oil is consumed in transportation, warehouse and postal departments; 16.7% of diesel consumption is in the agricultural field; 9.3% of diesel oil is consumed in other service departments. 27.4% of fuel consumption is in transportation, warehouse and postal departments; 26.9% of fuel oil consumption is in the power, thermal production and supply sectors; 12.4% of fuel oil is consumed in nonmetallic mineral products industry; 9.2% of fuel consumption is in petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing departments; 7.6% of fuel oil consumption is in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing. The consumption of various liquid fuels among industrial sectors is also very concentrated, which shows that the energy-saving work of various liquid fuels can be mainly concentrated in several industrial sectors with large consumption.
Natural gas consumption
33% of China's natural gas consumption is in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing; 17.8% of natural gas consumption is in the field of oil and gas exploitation; 17.0% of natural gas consumption is in the domestic consumption sector (for domestic consumption); Non-metallic mineral products industry consumes 5.6% natural gas.
power consumption
14.8% of China's electricity consumption is in the power, thermal production and supply departments; 1 1.3% of the electricity consumption is in the household consumption department (for household consumption); 10.2% electricity consumption in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; 8.5% of electricity consumption is in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing; 5.9% of electricity consumption, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry; 5.7% of electricity consumption is in the non-metallic mineral products industry; 5.4% of electricity consumption is in other service departments. The distribution of electricity consumption in industrial sectors is relatively uniform. It can be seen that power saving involves many industries and is difficult to implement.
Third, the emission reduction effect of renewable energy development planning
In the medium and long-term development plan of renewable energy announced by China, it is determined that by 20 10, renewable energy will account for 10% of the total national primary energy consumption, and by 2020, renewable energy will account for 15% of the total energy consumption.
By the end of 2006, the total annual utilization of renewable energy in China was 200 million tons of standard coal (excluding biomass energy used in the traditional way), accounting for about 8% of the total primary energy consumption, 0.5 percentage point higher than that in 2005, including hydropower 65.438+0.5 billion tons of standard coal, solar energy, wind power and modern technology biomass energy utilization equivalent to 50 million tons of standard coal. This is a solid step towards the goal that renewable energy will account for 65,438+00% of China's total primary energy consumption in 2065,438+00.
Assuming that renewable energy accounts for 65,438+00% of the total national primary energy consumption in 2065,438+00 (2.5 percentage points higher than that in 2005), all these renewable energy sources are used to replace coal consumption in primary energy consumption, which is equivalent to that the proportion of coal consumption in the total national primary energy consumption in 2065,438+00 is 2.5 percentage points lower than that in 2005.
According to the analysis of various energy consumption and its changing trend in China, the energy consumption structure of 42 industrial sectors in China and the carbon dioxide emission trend of various energy consumption in China, and based on the energy input-occupation-output table of China in 2005, we can calculate the carbon dioxide emission of 42 industrial sectors due to the consumption of coal, oil and natural gas and the emission reduction effect of renewable energy policies in China in 20 10.
According to the table 1, 20 10, among the carbon dioxide emissions of coal consumption, the top five industries and their proportions in the total carbon dioxide emissions of coal consumption are: power and thermal production and supply industries, 48.7%; Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, 8.9%; Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, 8.7%; Nonmetallic mineral products industry, 7.7%; Coal mining and washing industry, 6%.
Among the carbon dioxide emissions of oil consumption, the top five industries and their proportions in the total carbon dioxide emissions of oil consumption are: petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, 51.7%; Transportation, warehousing and postal services,18.9%; Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, 5.9%; Agriculture, 4%; Other services, 4%.
Among the carbon dioxide emissions of natural gas consumption, the top five industries and their proportions are: chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, 33%; Oil and gas exploitation,17.8%; Living consumption,17%; Nonmetallic mineral products industry, 5.6%; Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries, 4.2%.
Among the total carbon dioxide emissions, the top five industries and their proportions in the total carbon dioxide emissions are: power and thermal production and supply industries, 40.438+0%; Petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries,15.7%; Ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, 7.3%; Nonmetallic mineral products industry, 6.7%; Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, 6%. Departments with high total carbon dioxide emissions are basically those with high carbon dioxide emissions from coal consumption.
If the proportion of national primary energy consumption in 20 10 is the same as that in 2005, and there is no new renewable energy to replace coal, the carbon dioxide emissions of 201951.110000 tons will increase. That is, the emission reduction effect of renewable energy policy in 20 10 can be reduced by19561.11ten thousand tons of carbon dioxide.
Fourth, the effect of energy saving and emission reduction in key energy-consuming industries
1. Steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals and building materials industries
Document Guo Fa [2008] No.80 "Notice of General Office of the State Council on Printing and Distributing Work Arrangements for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction in 2008" issued by the State Council put forward the following objectives for energy conservation in key areas: continue to promote energy conservation in key energy-consuming industries such as steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals and building materials, and improve energy utilization efficiency. We will carry out energy-saving actions of thousands of enterprises in depth and strive to save 20 million tons of standard coal throughout the year. This energy-saving task is equivalent to 3.5% of the energy consumption of steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals and building materials in 2005. According to estimates, if this goal can be achieved, the carbon dioxide emissions will be reduced by 45.92 million tons in 2008.
2. Electricity and heat production and supply industries
According to the analysis of industrial coal consumption structure in China, in 2005, the coal consumption of power and heat production and supply industries was the largest, accounting for 43.9% of the total coal consumption in China. If the coal consumption of power, thermal production and supply industries in 2008 is reduced by 3.5% compared with that in 2005, it will save 36.962 million tons of standard coal and reduce 84.865 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. Under the same energy-saving ratio, the total energy-saving and emission-reduction effect of electric power and thermal production and supply industries is much more obvious than that of steel, nonferrous metals, chemicals and building materials.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) policy suggestion
1. Focus on strengthening energy conservation and emission reduction of various energy sources in some key industries.
According to the calculation results, under the scenario of developing renewable energy as planned, carbon dioxide emissions are mainly concentrated in several industrial sectors, and the energy-saving and emission reduction effects of key energy-consuming industries are obviously better than other industries. It is suggested that coal energy conservation and emission reduction should focus on the production and supply of electricity and heat, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry. The focus of petroleum energy conservation and emission reduction work is: petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry. Energy conservation and emission reduction of gasoline, kerosene, diesel oil and fuel oil focus on transportation, warehousing and postal services.
2. Strengthen clean coal technology research and development and international cooperation.
According to the development plan of renewable energy, renewable energy will account for 15% of the total energy consumption in 2020. In the long run, renewable energy is far from playing an important role in replacing traditional energy and improving the environment in the future. China can mine one or two orders of magnitude more coal resources than oil resources. Vigorously developing clean coal technology to make up for the shortage of oil and other energy sources with China's relatively rich coal resources is a feasible choice to solve the energy and environmental problems in the process of replacing traditional energy sources with renewable energy. The United States government has organized and supported the research on clean utilization of coal for more than 30 years, and has invested more than $ 10 billion. From 65438 to 0986, the Clean Coal Technology Demonstration Plan (CCTDP) was implemented, and in 2002, the innovative technology demonstration project-Clean Coal Power Generation Plan (CCPI) was implemented. China and the United States can strengthen cooperation and exchanges in technology research and development in this field. South Africa also has many successful experiences in this respect, which are worth learning from China.
3. Further revise and improve the renewable energy law.
After the two oil crises in 1970s, many countries strengthened their energy legislation. Among them, the American Energy Policy Act 2005 is more than 1720 pages long, which is not only very substantial, but also very operational. While quantifying all policy objectives as much as possible, specific fiscal and taxation measures, management procedures and reward and punishment methods are also formulated. China's current renewable energy law is a guiding and principled law, and its operability needs to be improved. It is suggested that all relevant ministries and provinces further introduce detailed rules that match the provisions of the current Renewable Energy Law; Formulate relevant standards and specifications (including mainframe, components, accessories, reliability, service life and other standards. , as well as complete testing facilities and quality inspection methods. ) to enhance the operability of the renewable energy law.
4. Increase China's investment in renewable energy.
At present, the proportion of China's energy R&D expenditure in GDP is very low, only 1/70 in Japan, 1/30 in France and 1/25 in the United States, which is far lower than that in developed countries. Due to the lack of sufficient research and development funds, many key technologies and equipment of renewable energy depend on imports. It is suggested that the technical difficulties of renewable energy should be included in the National Natural Science Foundation, "973", "863" and industrialization plan; At the same time, renewable energy construction projects will be included in the financial budgets and plans of governments at all levels. Take a road of independent research and development and independent innovation.
Liu and Wang Shouyang (the authors are respectively the associate researcher and assistant director of the Center for Predictive Science of China Academy of Sciences; Vice President of Institute of Mathematics and Systems Science, China Academy of Sciences, Director, Researcher and Doctoral Supervisor of Prediction Science Research Center.
This research is supported by the project of "Model Calculation of Building Energy Efficiency Standards on National Economic and Social Development" of People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (7070 1034, 60874 165438), the research fund of the President of the Institute of Mathematics and System Science of Chinese Academy of Sciences and the major project of knowledge innovation engineering of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KSC65438+).