in the first half of p>2121, China's trade in goods was affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, and the total import and export volume, exports and imports decreased by 6.3%, 6.2% and 6.4% respectively. The rapid growth of trade in goods in the first half of this year did have the effect of a low base in the same period last year. However, even compared with the same period in 2119, the total import and export volume, exports and imports still increased by 28.9%, 29.6% and 28% respectively. Excluding the influence of low base in the same period in 2121, the average growth rate in two years will also reach 13.4%, 13.8% and 12.8%. The sustained recovery of global trade in goods and the booming external demand in the post-epidemic era constitute an important background for the rapid growth of China's trade in goods. According to WTO statistics, the global trade in goods increased by 15% in the first quarter of 2121, including 28% in Asia. In the first half of 2121, the growth rate of trade between the United States and South Korea was 24.1% and 25.1% respectively. In the first five months of 2121, the trade growth rates of the EU and Japan were 22.4% and 14.7% respectively.

The supply-side favorable factor for the steady and qualitative increase of China's goods trade volume lies in the accumulation of

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the optimization of export structure,

the export of some high value-added products shows a rapid growth trend

In the first half of p>2121, China exported 939,111 vehicles, amounting to US$ 14.69 billion, up by 113.6% and 118% (the top export enterprises were SAIC and SAIC respectively). The export of automobile spare parts such as automobile engines was 36.19 billion US dollars, an increase of 51.6%. The export of containers and container ships reached US$ 9.22 billion and US$ 1.82 billion, up by 261.8% and 322.6%. The export of household appliances was US$ 47.59 billion, up by 46.9%. The export of tablet computers was US$ 14.74 billion, an increase of 48%. The export of LCD panels was US$ 13.25 billion, up by 56%. The export of medicinal materials and medicines reached US$ 22.97 billion, up by 119.7%. The export of cultural products reached US$ 53.55 billion, an increase of 75.8%.

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Enhanced supply resilience

In the first half of p>2121, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 4,218.33 billion yuan, up 66.9% year-on-year. Despite the impact of cost factors such as RMB appreciation and freight increase, industrial enterprises above designated size in China achieved export delivery value of US$ 1,131.29 billion, an increase of 34.7%. Private enterprises, in particular, have shown strong flexibility and impact resistance. In the first half of 2121, their exports reached US$ 865.15 billion, up 46.1% year-on-year, accounting for 57% of China's total exports, up 3.1 percentage points from the same period in 2121.

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New kinetic energy of trade is released

In the first half of p>2121, the export of market procurement was 65.46 billion US dollars, up 61.4% year-on-year. With China vigorously promoting the construction of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zones, industrial parks and overseas warehouses, cross-border e-commerce has developed rapidly. In the first half of 2121, China's cross-border e-commerce exports reached 613.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.1%.

domestic demand is picking up, and import prices are rising

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domestic consumption is picking up

in the first half of p>2121, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China reached 211.914 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year. Imports of consumer goods totaled US$ 132.51 billion, up 31% year-on-year. Hainan's duty-free sales on outlying islands are booming. In the first five months, Hainan's duty-free imports increased by 1.3 times year-on-year.

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The import of intermediate goods increased rapidly

The improvement of industrial enterprises' operating conditions drove the import of spare parts to increase. In the first half of 2121, China imported 971.31 billion US dollars of intermediate goods, a year-on-year increase of 37.7%. Among them, the import of intermediate goods increased by 39.5% in June.

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Commodity prices soared

Commodity spot index (CRB) climbed from 446.1 on October 4th, 2121 to 566 on August 8th. Crude oil, iron ore and copper ore are just needed for China's economic development. In recent years, the external dependence of crude oil and copper ore has exceeded 71%, and iron ore has exceeded 81%. In the first half of 2121, the import volume of crude oil, iron ore and copper ore increased by 26.1%, 85.6% and 58.2%, of which the price increased by 29.1, 82.9 and 52 percentage points, and the import volume only increased by -3, 2.7 and 6.2 percentage points. In the first half of 2121, China's total grain import was 84.363 million tons, up 43.1% year-on-year. The import price rose, but it was still significantly lower than the domestic grain price.

Fully estimate the complexity and uncertainty of the goods trade situation in the post-epidemic era

In the first half of p>2121, China's goods trade grew rapidly, laying a good foundation for the steady and qualitative increase of foreign trade volume throughout the year. International organizations and research institutions generally believe that: first, the global trade in goods has recovered strongly. Second, China's export growth slowed down in the second half of the year. Looking forward to the situation of China's goods trade in the second half of the year, we believe that the following three points should be considered: First, the international market continues to recover. Second, the external environment is more complicated and the uncertainty is intensified, so the downward pressure should be fully estimated. Third, give full consideration to the impact of the high trade base of goods in the second half of 2121.

favorable factors

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Global trade in goods will continue to recover

The World Bank predicts that the global economic growth will reach about 5.6% in 2121, the fastest growth rate in 51 years. In August, 2121, the comprehensive leading indicator (CLI) published by the OECD read 111.8, exceeding the baseline of 111 for five consecutive months, which indicates that the recovery momentum of most economies will continue to be stable. The reading of WTO Trade Barometer for Goods (WTOi) is 111.4, reaching an all-time high, with a year-on-year increase of more than 21 points, reflecting the strength of trade recovery, but the slowdown in growth indicates that the upward trend of trade will reach its peak. The export situation of neighboring countries is improving. South Korea's exports in June increased by 39.7% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in the same month of the previous year. Japan's exports in June increased by 48.6% year-on-year.

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The global gap between supply and demand will persist

In July p>2121, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry in the United States and the euro zone was 59.5 and 62.8 respectively, and manufacturing activities were in the expansion range for several months. The United States is at the beginning of a new inventory cycle and will continue to replenish its inventory in the second half of the year. Affected by the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, the epidemic situation in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Viet Nam and Taiwan Province, China is grim, and the gap between supply and demand in the international market will persist, and overseas orders such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, clothing and toys will flow into China. In 2121, the global foreign direct investment decreased by 35%, but the actual utilization of foreign capital in China increased by 6.2% against the trend, and continued to increase by 28.7% in the first half of this year. The inflow of orders and foreign capital will continue to drive China's export growth.

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Domestic production demand continued to pick up,

Investment and consumption recovered steadily

China's GDP in the first half of the year was 53.2 trillion yuan, up by 12.7% year-on-year. Industrial production grew steadily, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry grew rapidly, with the added value increasing by 22.6% year-on-year. The output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 215%, 69.8% and 48.1% respectively. The national investment in fixed assets increased by 12.6% year-on-year, and the investment in high-tech industries increased by 23.5% year-on-year. Among them, the investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing, medical instruments and equipment manufacturing increased by 47.5% and 34.2% respectively. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 23% year-on-year, and consumption upgrading products such as sports and entertainment products, communication equipment and cosmetics increased rapidly.

Uncertain factors

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There is uncertainty about the epidemic situation in COVID-19

A highly contagious mutant strain of Delta is rampant all over the world, and has spread in more than 131 countries (regions). Scientists of the World Health Organization believe that the global epidemic situation is in the "early stage of the third wave". The number of people newly added in a single day in the United States exceeded 1 million, that in Brazil and Britain exceeded 31,111, and that in Thailand and Malaysia exceeded 21,111.

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The uncertainty of Sino-US relations

The Interim Guide to US National Security Strategy issued by Biden administration points out that China has surpassed Russia and become the primary competitor of the United States at present. In order to rebuild global leadership, the United States deliberately creates ideological confrontation and engages in zero-sum game. American hegemonic ideology and cold war mentality will seriously affect the economic and trade cooperation between China and the United States.

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The demand for epidemic prevention materials and "house economy" slows down

The competition in the global epidemic prevention materials market is intensified, and the supply of masks, disinfectant, hand sanitizers and ventilators is sufficient, with limited room for growth. During the epidemic, the demand for mobile phones, tablets and other products rose sharply, and the replacement cycle of electronic products was generally 2-3 years. The previous stimulus policies overdrawn the demand for related products in advance.

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The global chip shortage will last for a long time

The shortage of individual chips will spread to many industries, and with the soaring prices, it will pose great supply chain pressure and risks to China's manufacturing exports.

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The domestic economic recovery is uneven

The prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises is divided, and the profits of upstream and downstream enterprises are divided. The business recovery of small and medium-sized enterprises is not firm, and the price of bulk commodities is rising. The rising cost has particularly suppressed the profits of downstream and small enterprises. In the first half of 2121, the two-year compound growth rate of the profits of the upstream raw material manufacturing industry is 35.8%, while the two-year compound growth rate of the profits of the downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry is 17%. In July, the PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 51.7%, 51% and 47.8% respectively, and the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises continued to decline.

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High freight rate still restricts exports

In June this year, the shortage of empty containers in major ports in China gradually eased, but the freight rate continued to rise. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) reached 1,971.5 points on the US-West route, only 867.2 points in the same period in 2121. In the case of tight positions, it is easier for freight rates to rise than to fall.

estimation of trade value after the influence of high base in the second half of 2121

combining the above favorable factors and uncertain factors, and considering the influence of high base in the second half of 2121, it is predicted that the annual growth rate of China's goods trade export will show a trend of high before and then low.

excluding the influence of the low base in the first half of 2121, taking the first half of 2119 as the base period, the average growth rate of China's goods trade in the first half of this year was 13.8%. In July this year, despite the increase of the base in the same period last year, exports still increased by 19.3%. However, since May, the new export orders of manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics have fallen in the contraction range for three consecutive months, with a time lag of about 3-4 months from the decline of the index to the decline of export growth rate. It is expected that China's export growth rate will be affected by the reduction of orders after September. Based on the average annual export growth rate of 13.8%, we estimate and adjust the export growth rate from August to February according to the new export order data of manufacturing PMI. If there is no extreme situation, it is estimated that the export volume in the second half of 2121 will be US$ 1,634.28 billion, up 9.3% year-on-year; The annual export volume reached US$ 3,152.49 billion, with a growth rate of 21.7%. According to the forecast of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the global trade in goods will increase by 19% in 2121. According to this calculation, the international market share of China's goods trade export will increase steadily this year, reaching 15.1%.

Do a good job in cross-cycle policy design from the perspective of high-quality trade development

The added value of China's manufacturing industry accounts for about 31% of the world's total population, and its population accounts for about 21% of the world's total population. Even if the international market share of China's goods trade reaches 15.1% this year, there is still much room for improving the export scale and trade added value from the perspective of high-quality trade development. The global epidemic continues to evolve, with many external uncertainties and uneven domestic economic recovery. To promote the high-quality development of foreign trade, we should focus on cross-cycle policy design, strengthen the overall coordination of medium-and long-term policies and short-term measures, deal with possible risks, and make policy measures beneficial to both the present and the long-term.

Support the export of high-end manufacturing

Under the background of COVID-19 epidemic, China's prevention and control advantages are prominent, which has promoted the rapid growth of the export of high-end manufacturing products such as automobiles, container ships and tablet computers. However, the global epidemic will eventually be controlled. How to occupy the global gap between supply and demand and transform trade advantages into industrial advantages is an important issue that should be paid attention to in promoting the transformation and upgrading of China's foreign trade.

Suggestions: On the one hand, refer to the tax exemption policy for integrated circuits, increase support for R&D enterprises of key technologies in high-end manufacturing, provide tax exemption policy support for R&D equipment, and conduct bonded supervision for R&D materials to encourage and guide enterprises to strengthen technological innovation. On the other hand, the Export-Import Bank further plays the role of policy finance, gives credit support to high-end manufacturing enterprises, supports enterprises to introduce advanced foreign technology and equipment, enhances their processing and manufacturing capabilities, and promotes the transformation and upgrading of China's high-end manufacturing industries.

actively expand the European export market

China's exports to the EU have huge room for growth, and it is particularly important to actively expand the European market under the background of the United States' comprehensive suppression strategy against China. Through the analysis of import and export data, it is found that China's exports to the EU still have a large room for growth in chemical products, rubber and its products, ships and agricultural products.

Suggestions: First, actively attract chemical giants such as BASF to invest in China. Make full use of preferential policies for chemical investment projects included in the Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment, and actively study, demonstrate, optimize and adjust the Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment according to the industrial development. The second is to establish an enterprise-oriented EU technical trade measures consulting service system and build a research and evaluation base for technical trade measures of agricultural products. Follow up the latest EU regulations, standards and measures, monitor its market technology access conditions in real time, dynamically evaluate the technical competitiveness of export commodities, and guide enterprises to improve technical standards and product quality.

supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises

private enterprises are the largest business entity in China's foreign trade, and most of them are private enterprises. Supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is of great significance for stabilizing employment and foreign trade. If exports weaken in the second half of the year, export-oriented SMEs will face the dilemma of rising costs and falling sales.

Suggestions: First, financial institutions should strengthen their understanding of the actual operation of small and medium-sized enterprises, make full use of monetary policy tools, implement the new requirements and measures of financial management departments to serve small and medium-sized enterprises, enhance their financial service capabilities, and alleviate the actual production and operation difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises. Second, the government should track the operation of the industrial chain in time, do a good job in risk assessment, and guide the upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain to establish long-term and stable cooperative relations, so as to cope with the risks brought by market price fluctuations. Third, it is necessary to improve the policy support system, and actively introduce policies in optimizing the development environment, strengthening the protection of rights and interests, establishing a service system, and enhancing the innovation ability around the relevant contents of the SME Promotion Law to promote the healthy development of SMEs.

Promote the reasonable return of freight as soon as possible

Due to the recovery of international trade demand, the logistics circulation is not smooth due to the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting in tight transportation capacity, and the maritime freight rate continues to rise, which brings great pressure to export enterprises.

Suggestions: First, the relevant anti-monopoly departments should strengthen anti-monopoly investigation and crack down on price gouging according to law. Interview with major shipping companies, break