1. National statistical survey data refers to all kinds of statistical data obtained by the national statistical system, such as statistical survey data of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction industry, wholesale and retail industry, accommodation and catering industry, real estate industry, sampling survey data of service industry, population and labor wages, price statistics, etc.
Second, the administrative records of the administrative departments, mainly including the Ministry of Finance, China People's Bank, China State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, China Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and other relevant data. For example, the local and foreign currency credit receipts and payments of financial institutions of the People's Bank of China, and the tax information of different industries in State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, People's Republic of China (PRC), etc. summary
There are three methods of GDP accounting, namely production method, income method and expenditure method, which reflect the results of national economic production activities from different angles. Theoretically, the accounting results of the three methods are the same.
Production method is a method to measure the newly created value of permanent residence units during the accounting period from the perspective of production, that is, the added value is obtained by deducting the value of intermediate products put into production process from the total value of products produced by various departments of the national economy during the accounting period. The accounting formula is: added value = total output-intermediate input. Income method is an accounting method that reflects the final result according to the income share of production factors in the production process from the perspective of creating income in the production process. According to this accounting method, the added value is the sum of workers' remuneration, net product tax, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. Expenditure method is to measure the final destination of products and services in the accounting period from the perspective of end use, including final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net export of goods and services.
The quarterly GDP released by the National Bureau of Statistics is based on the results of production method accounting. 20 1 1 year 20 12 China's top 20 10 GDP ranking regions 20 12 GDP (100 million yuan) 20 12 GDP growth rate 20/kloc. 673.59 10.00% 2 Jiangsu 54058.2210% 48604.31.00% 3 Shandong 500 13.24 9.80% 45438+. 32000 9.00% 5 Henan 29810.141%27232.0411.60% 6 Hebei 26538+0.9.60% 2608656.
Accounting GDP by production method refers to calculating GDP according to the output value of various departments providing material products and services. Production law is also called department law. This calculation method reflects the source of GDP.
When using this method to calculate, all production departments should deduct the output value of the intermediate products used and only calculate the added value. Business, service industry and other departments also use the value-added method to calculate. Health, education, administration, family services and other departments can not calculate its value-added, so the value of their services is calculated according to wage income.
According to the mode of production, GDP can be divided into the following sectors: agriculture, forestry and fisheries; Mining; Construction industry; Manufacturing industry; Transportation industry; Posts and telecommunications and public utilities; Electricity, gas and tap water industries; Wholesale and retail trade; Finance, insurance, real estate; Service industry; Government services and government enterprises. The GDP calculated by the production method can be obtained by adding up the GDP produced by the above departments, adding the net income of foreign factors and considering the statistical error term.
Theoretically speaking, the GDP calculated by expenditure method, income method and production method are equal in quantity, but there are often errors in actual accounting, so it is necessary to add a statistical error item to make them consistent. In actual statistics, the expenditure method of the national economic accounting system is generally adopted as the basic method, that is, the GDP calculated by the expenditure method is taken as the standard.
In China's statistical practice, the GDP calculated by the production method is divided into four items:
GDP= workers' remuneration+net product tax+depreciation of fixed assets+operating surplus.
The first item is the remuneration of workers. It refers to the total remuneration that workers get from production activities. Including various forms of wages, bonuses and allowances received by workers, including monetary forms and physical forms; It also includes free medical care and health care expenses enjoyed by employees, commuting subsidies and social insurance premiums paid by the unit.
The second item is net product tax, which refers to the balance of product tax minus production subsidies. Product tax refers to various taxes, surcharges and planning fees levied by the government on the production, sales and business activities of production units and the use of certain production factors (such as fixed assets, land and labor) for production activities. Contrary to the product tax, the production subsidy refers to the government's unilateral income transfer to the production unit, so it is regarded as negative product tax, including policy loss subsidy, grain system price subsidy, export tax rebate of foreign trade enterprises and so on.
The third item is the depreciation of fixed assets, which refers to the depreciation of fixed assets extracted according to the approved depreciation rate of fixed assets in a certain period of time to make up for the loss of fixed assets. It reflects the transfer value of fixed assets in current production.
The fourth item is operating surplus, which refers to the balance of added value created by residential units after deducting labor remuneration, net product tax and depreciation of fixed assets. It is equivalent to the operating profit of the enterprise plus production subsidies.
income approach
Accounting GDP by income method is to add up all kinds of income obtained by production factors from the perspective of income, that is, to add up wages obtained by labor, land rent obtained by land owners, interest obtained by capital and profits obtained by entrepreneurs to calculate GDP. This method is also called factor payment method and factor cost method.
In a simple economy without government, the added value of an enterprise is the GDP it creates, which is equal to factor income plus depreciation. However, when the government intervenes, it often collects indirect taxes, and the GDP at this time should also include indirect taxes and corporate transfer payments. Indirect tax is a tax levied on product sales, including goods tax and turnover tax. This tax is nominally levied on enterprises, but enterprises can include it in the production cost and eventually pass it on to consumers, so it should also be regarded as a cost. Similarly, there are corporate transfer payments (that is, corporate social charitable donations to non-profit organizations and bad debts of consumers), which are not the income created by production factors, but should be transferred to consumers through product prices, so they should also be regarded as costs.
Capital depreciation should also be included in GDP. Because although it is not factor income, it is included in the investment cost that should be recovered.
Also, the income of non-corporate business owners should also be included in GDP. The income of non-corporate business owners refers to the income of doctors, lawyers, shopkeepers and farmers. They use their own funds and are self-employed. Their wages, interest and rent are difficult to be divided into wages, interest on their own funds, rent on their own houses, etc. Just like the company's accounts, their wages, interest, profits and rents are often mixed together as the income of non-corporate business owners.
In this way, the formula of income method is:
GDP = salary+interest+profit+rent+indirect tax and enterprise transfer payment+depreciation.
It can also be regarded as GDP= income from production factors+income from non-production factors.
Theoretically, GDP calculated by income method and GDP calculated by expenditure method are equal in quantity.
Expenditure method
Expenditure method is used to calculate GDP. It is based on the use of products and adds up the market value of the final products produced in one year, which is the expenditure of the final products purchased in that year. This method is also called final product method and product flow method. From the perspective of expenditure method, gross domestic product (GDP) includes the final consumption, capital formation and net exports of goods and services of all permanent units in a certain period of time in a country (or region), which reflects the use and composition of GDP produced in that period.
If Q 1, Q2...qn are used to represent the output of various final products, while P 1, P2...pn are used to represent the prices of various final products, then the formula for accounting GDP by expenditure method is:
q 1p 1+q2p 2+……QnPn = GDP
In real life, the final uses of products and services are mainly household consumption, enterprise investment, government purchase and export. Therefore, using the expenditure method to calculate GDP is to calculate the sum of the expenditures of residents, enterprises, government procurement and net exports in a certain period of time in a country or region.
1. Residents' consumption (represented by the letter C) includes expenditures on durable consumer goods such as refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and automobiles, expenditures on non-durable consumer goods such as clothing and food, and expenditures on services such as medical care, tourism and haircuts. The expense of building a house is not consumption.
2. Enterprise investment (indicated by the letter I) refers to the expenditure of increasing or updating capital assets (including factory buildings, machinery and equipment, houses and inventories). Investment includes fixed assets investment and inventory investment. Investment in fixed assets refers to the investment in building new factories, purchasing new equipment and building new houses. Why does housing belong to investment rather than consumption? Because houses, like other fixed assets, are used for a long time and consume slowly. Inventory investment is the increase or decrease of inventory (or inventory) held by enterprises. If the national enterprise inventory is 200 billion dollars at the beginning of the year and 220 billion dollars at the end of the year, then the inventory investment is 20 billion dollars. Inventory investment may be positive or negative, because the inventory value at the end of the year may be greater or less than the inventory at the beginning of the year. Enterprise inventory is regarded as an investment because it can generate income. From the perspective of national economic statistics, the products produced but not sold can only be used as inventory investment of enterprises, so that the GDP from the perspective of production is consistent with the GDP from the perspective of expenditure.
The investment included in GDP refers to the total investment, that is, the sum of replacement investment and net investment, and replacement investment is depreciation.
The division between investment and consumption is not absolute, and the specific classification depends on the provisions in actual statistics.
3. Government procurement (denoted by the letter G) refers to the expenditure of governments at all levels on purchasing goods and services, including the expenditure of the government on purchasing arms, military and police services, office supplies and office facilities of government agencies, holding public projects such as roads, and opening schools. The wages paid by the government to government employees are also purchased by the government. Government purchase is a substantial expenditure, which is manifested in the two-way flow of goods, services and money, directly forming social demand and becoming an integral part of GDP. Government purchase is only a part of government expenditure, and another part of government expenditure, such as government transfer payment and interest on public debt, is not included in GDP. Government transfer payment is the expenditure that the government does not pay for the goods and services produced in that year, including the expenditure that the government uses for social welfare, social insurance, unemployment relief, poverty subsidies, old-age security, medical and health care, agricultural subsidies and so on. Government transfer payment means that the government can transfer and redistribute income among different members of society through its functions, and transfer the income of some people to the hands of other people. Its essence is the redistribution of wealth. When there is a government transfer payment, that is, when the government pays these fees, it does not get any goods and services accordingly. Government transfer payment is a monetary expenditure, and the total income of the whole society has not changed. Therefore, government transfer payments are not included in GDP.
4. Net export (represented by the letter X-M, X stands for export and M stands for import) refers to the difference between import and export. Imports should be deducted from the total domestic purchases, because imports mean that income flows abroad, and it is not the expenditure of buying domestic products; Exports should be added to the country's total purchases, because exports represent the inflow of foreign income, that is, the expenditure on buying domestic products. Therefore, net exports should be included in the total expenditure. The net export may be positive or negative.
The above four items add up to the formula for calculating GDP by expenditure method:
GDP = C + I + G +(X-M)
In China's statistical practice, the GDP calculated by expenditure method is divided into final consumption, total capital formation and total net exports of goods and services, which reflects the use and composition of GDP produced in this period.
The final consumption is divided into family consumption and government consumption. In addition to the consumption of goods and services directly purchased in the form of money, residents' consumption also includes the consumption expenditure of goods and services obtained in other ways, which is called virtual consumption expenditure. Residents' virtual consumption expenditure includes the following types: goods and services provided by units to workers in the form of in-kind remuneration and in-kind transfer; Financial intermediary services provided by financial institutions; Insurance services provided by insurance companies.
The GDP calculated by the expenditure method can be used to calculate the consumption rate and investment rate. The so-called consumption rate is the ratio of final consumption to GDP, and the so-called investment rate is the ratio of total capital formation to GDP. According to relevant statistics, in recent years, China's consumption rate has shown an obvious downward trend. In 2005, China's consumption rate was 52. 1%, and the investment rate was 43.4%. Compared with the world level, China's consumption rate is obviously low. Therefore, at present and in the future, the important content of macro-control is to adjust the proportional relationship between investment and consumption, and expanding consumer demand is the focus of expanding domestic demand.
production range
The production scope of GDP accounting includes the following three parts: first, the production of goods and services provided or prepared by producers to other units; Second, the self-sufficient production of all commodities used by producers for final consumption or capital formation; The third is the owner's own housing service and paid self-sufficient family service production for its final consumption. The scope of production does not include unpaid self-sufficient family services, natural activities without unit control (such as the natural growth of wild and uncultivated forests, wild fruits or berries, and natural growth of fish on the high seas).
territorial scope
In principle, the scope of GDP accounting includes the economic activities of all permanent units with economic interests in China economy. The quarterly GDP data in this report is the national data calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics, excluding the regional GDP data of Hongkong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province Province. The calculation of GDP data published by the National Bureau of Statistics every year needs to go through the following processes: preliminary estimation, preliminary verification and final verification. The preliminary estimation process is generally carried out at the end of each year and the beginning of the following year. The annual GDP data it gets is only a preliminary figure, which needs to be verified after obtaining more sufficient information. The preliminary verification procedure is generally carried out in the second quarter of the following year. The GDP data obtained by preliminary verification is relatively accurate, but GDP accounting still needs a lot of important data, and the corresponding data needs further verification. The final verification process is generally carried out in the fourth quarter of the second year. At this time, all kinds of statistical data, final accounting data and administrative data needed and collected for GDP accounting are basically available. Compared with the previous step, it uses more comprehensive and detailed data, so this GDP data is more accurate.
In addition, GDP data also needs to go through a historical data adjustment process, that is, when new data sources, new classifications, more accurate accounting methods or more reasonable accounting principles are discovered or produced, historical data should be adjusted to make GDP comparable every year, which is an international practice. For example, the United States adjusted the historical data of 1 1 between 1929 and 1999.
In short, the GDP published in each time period has its specific meaning and specific value, so we can't doubt that there is something wrong with the statistical data just because the data published in different time periods are different. Of course, China's GDP calculation system also has some shortcomings. For example, the statistical accounting system originally adopted by China in the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries has lagged behind the development of the times in many places.
note:
1. A certain period emphasizes the "new" increase in the final products and services provided during that period, not the previous increase. For example, used cars, second-hand houses and so on. Not included in the gross domestic product of the year;
2. The intermediate product can be regarded as a kind of raw material product, which is used to produce the final product, that is, after it is produced in this year, it will continue to be processed and produced in that year; If it is directly sold at freight price, purchased by consumers and directly used, it is another matter, belonging to a special case and included in the total value, otherwise it cannot be included;
This is a concept of flow, not stock. The figures published in a certain year are not the total amount from the founding of the People's Republic of China to that year, which is wrong. Only what was newly produced in that period;
4. Market value refers to the total amount of money formed by statistics in currency. Because there are too many kinds of goods, tons, units, parts, Taiwan and other units can't be added up, so the monetary units of that year are used for statistics and addition. The so-called monetary unit of the year refers to the prices of these commodities this year. Basic data evaluation
Relevant departments will conduct quality inspection on professional statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting to ensure that the data reasonably reflect the actual situation of economic development. After getting these basic data, the GDP accounting department will check the completeness and accuracy of the data again to ensure that these data meet the concept and requirements of GDP accounting.
Accounting method evaluation
In GDP accounting, the GDP accounting department will revise China's quarterly GDP accounting method according to the reality of China's economic development and the constantly improving national economic accounting standards to ensure the rationality of the accounting method. , is working on the revision of China National Economic Accounting System (2002).
Evaluation of accounting results
After the quarterly GDP accounting results are obtained, it is necessary to check the coordination of GDP data, GDP data and relevant professional and departmental statistical data and macro data to ensure the coordination and matching of GDP data with other major data. A system for evaluating the basic statistical data of various industries and departments with national economic accounting as the core framework is being established. Necessity of revision
The preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP is very time-sensitive, and it is generally published around 15 days after the quarter. At this time, all the basic data needed for GDP accounting cannot be obtained, so professional statistical progress data and related indicators are used for quarterly GDP preliminary accounting. After that, with the continuous increase and improvement of available basic data, we will use more complete basic data, such as professional statistical annual report, industry financial data, sampling survey data, financial final accounts data, etc., to revise GDP data, so as to more accurately reflect the actual situation of economic development.
Revision procedure
According to the regulations of the National Bureau of Statistics on China's quarterly GDP accounting and data release procedures and the requirements of China's GDP accounting and data release system reform, China's quarterly GDP accounting is divided into three steps: preliminary accounting, preliminary verification and final verification. Usually, after the initial and final verification of annual GDP, quarterly data should be revised, which is called routine revision; After the national economic census is carried out, new basic data that have great influence on GDP data are found, or the annual GDP historical data are revised after the calculation method and classification standard change, and the quarterly GDP historical data should also be revised accordingly. This revision is called comprehensive revision.
Revision method
Revision of cumulative data
The correction method of quarterly GDP data in China is proportional convergence method, that is, the quarterly data is adjusted by using the difference between the annual benchmark value and the summary of the four quarters of the year. The basic method of proportional convergence is: first, connect the current price and constant price added value of each industry in the national economy respectively, and GDP and the added value of the three industries are the sum of the added value of the connected industries. That is, the quarterly current price added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery after connection is the quarterly current price added value of the primary industry; Adding the quarterly current value added of the connecting industry and the construction industry to obtain the current value added of the connected secondary industry; Adding the current added value of the associated tertiary industry to obtain the current added value of the associated tertiary industry; Add up the current value added of the three industries after convergence, and get the quarterly current GDP after convergence. The connection method between constant price GDP and the added value of constant price three industries is the same as the current price.
Revision of ring comparison data
Because the object of seasonal adjustment is time series data, when any quarterly data in time series changes, it will affect the result of seasonal adjustment; Adding the data of the latest quarter to the time series will also make the ring-on-ring data of the previous quarter change more or less, which is the result of automatic correction of the model. According to the principle of seasonal adjustment, in general, the data will be greatly affected in the period close to the latest data; In the period away from the latest data, the data is less affected. For the convenience of users, while releasing the current month-on-month data, the revised month-on-month data of last quarter will be released through the website of the National Bureau of Statistics. The accounting frequency is quarterly, and China starts to calculate quarterly GDP from 1992 to 1 quarter. The quarterly accounting adopts the cumulative accounting method, that is, the GDP data of each year 1 quarter, 1-2 quarter, 1-3 quarter and 1-4 quarter are calculated respectively.
From 20 1 1 quarter to 1 quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics officially released the GDP growth rate of each quarter.
secret
According to Article 9 of Chapter 1 of the Statistics Law of the People's Republic of China, statistical institutions and statisticians shall keep confidential the state secrets, business secrets and personal information they know in their statistical work.
Accountants in various countries keep the unpublished professional statistical data and administrative records strictly confidential when conducting GDP accounting, and also keep the current GDP data strictly confidential before the GDP accounting data is published.
User's demand
Domestic users of quarterly GDP data are mainly government departments, research institutions, universities, industry associations, media and the public. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics regularly provides quarterly GDP data of China to the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations.