Introduction of things out of the ordinary must be demon! In the domestic hog market, after the end of June last year, the domestic sows stockpile, "Shengji and decline", the market capacity to open the curtain, into 2022 in April, with the end of March, pig prices bottoming out rising performance, in April, piglets, as well as two sows to fill in the mood of the strong, the domestic sows stockpile fell to 41.77 million heads, de-emphasis Obviously weakened, at the end of May sows stock 41.92 million head, down 10 months after the first retracement of the performance, which also means that this round of sows stock depopulation come to an end, but, from the sows capacity depopulation of the performance point of view, capacity depopulation is not complete, the size of the breeding sows is still more than 41 million head, which means that the domestic pig production capacity is still in the stage of the more relaxed!

After the Spring Festival of the Year of the Tiger, the domestic consumer market entered the cyclical off-season, the terminal consumption support is insufficient, superimposed on the domestic "mask problem" impact in April, the national catering industry revenue plummeted by 22.7% year-on-year, which further constraints on the performance of the consumption of fresh pork, however, the domestic price of hogs is bucking the trend of the uptrend, in particular, after the summer solstice, the recent increase in the price of hogs, the price of hogs has increased. , after the summer solstice, pig prices have opened up in recent days!

According to the data, on June 24, the national average price of standardized pigs reached 17.71 yuan/kg, this round of pig prices compared to the end of March, the cumulative increase in pig prices reached 5.97 yuan/kg, an increase of up to 50.8%! In the consumption off-season as well as the loose sows inventory stage, the price of hogs, but a record high, what happened in the market? The company's main goal is to provide the best possible service to its customers.

According to institutional analysis, this round of irrational rise in pig prices, the end of March to the beginning of June, the performance of pig prices in line with market expectations, but, since mid-June, pig prices have been significantly higher than the obvious human factors induced!

Specifically, although, from the end of March to the beginning of June, the domestic consumer market atrophy, but, with the gradual improvement of the mask problem, the end of the market consumption support a slight rebound, which also supported the rise of pig prices in April to May, however, due to the consumption of the overall weak, the contribution to the rise in pig prices is weak, and support for the price of pigs is still the market stage of the "lack of pigs! "

The price of hogs has been on the rise in April and May!

So, according to the sow stockpile impact 10 months after the scale of pig slaughter, the end of June 2021 sow stockpile reached 45.64 million, corresponding to this year's April, pig slaughter is further loose, although, in May, the slaughter or there is a reduction in the amount of, but, due to the second half of last year after the sow stockpile to go slower, therefore, this year's 2 quarter market shouldn't be so "! Shortage of pigs"!

However, the change in sow inventory, corresponding to the medium and long term pig prices have certain predictions, but, taking into account the end of last year, the market for the Year of the Tiger Spring Festival pig prices predicted to be low "consistency", which also caused the breeding side of the general presentation of the shrinking amount of replenishment as well as the early exit of the phenomenon of piglet replenishment of the poor motivation to take the piglets out of the increase in the number of sow, the year after the soybean meal market rushed to the top of the market in May, or a reduction. After the year, the soybean meal market rushed to a record high, the cost of pig fattening increased significantly, the farmers pressed the pen mood is low, the first quarter of the pig source early exit phenomenon highlights, the low standard pig centralized release, which also exacerbated the second quarter of the overall tightening of the pig pen "fundamentals"!

In addition, pig prices bottomed out and rose, the lobbying capital smelled the opportunity, the second fattening as well as piglet fattening enthusiasm, part of the medium and low standard pigs into the second fattening, slaughterhouses are facing the difficulty of purchasing more difficult! And hogs out of long-term losses, with the rise in pig prices, farmers chasing up the sale of emotions counterattack, hog supply "yellow and yellow", which further posture of the price of hogs, accelerated the price of hogs into the "8 yuan era" performance!

Entering the middle of June, the market has a second fattening impact on the market concerns, some institutions analyze, pig prices or the risk of a second fall, but, instead, pig prices rose more and more fierce, in mid-June, the price of pigs is still horizontal 15.8 yuan / kg, but, within a short period of time, the price of pigs soared significantly, and at present, the average price of hogs rose to 17.71 yuan / kg, the price of hogs rose by more than 12%! On the one hand, the hog supply continued the sluggish performance, the consumer market to follow up is still poor, on the other hand, the price of hogs rose too quickly, but there is a suspicion of "manipulation"!

I personally believe that, with the depth of domestic hog farming concentration, compared to the retail farms, large-scale pig enterprises to further enhance the right to speak, although, consumption is not good as well as the price of hogs rose too quickly, resulting in the slaughterhouse, "gross white price difference" to further wither, the traders and slaughterhouse losses show increased performance, but the right to speak to the slaughterhouse! Bypassed, which also caused the slaughterhouse into a "man-made knife and chopping board for me for fish", by the scale of pig enterprises to control the amount of fences, retail farms to follow the trend of selling, slaughterhouses into the difficult situation of procurement, and part of the head of the pig enterprises to high-profile price increases in the fences, which directly caused the increase in the cost of hog traders, and slaughterhouses by the daily orders need to complete the restrictions, can only be forced to follow the scale of the rhythm of the price increase! The rhythm of price increases in pig enterprises! This also results in the formation of pig prices obviously detached from the performance of the market demand side, large-scale pig enterprises have a certain ability to control the trend of pig prices!

Of course, as hog prices surged higher, the breeding side of the spring ahead of schedule, according to the current penning market, in addition to some of the high cost of hog farms, the balance of the floating loss, most of the farmers average head of the penning profit of close to 300 yuan, but for the abattoirs, due to the price of hogs rose too fast, the consumer acceptance of poorer, downstream traders to enhance the resistance to the slaughtering enterprise losses increased further, the slaughterhouse! Suffered a "spring cold"! As for the large-scale pig enterprises to raise the price of the fence, what changes in the market, the next article, we continue to analyze! Please collect!

Things out of the ordinary must be evil! The price of hogs bottomed out at 50.8%, someone "manipulate" the price of hogs? What is going on! This is the first time I've ever seen a person who has been in a position to do that. The above is the author's personal opinion, pictures from the network!

#Hog Prices#