Tianjin GDP stalled and plummeted. 20 18 will Tianjin house prices fall?
The economy is getting worse and worse, and the government's pocket is also flat. In 20 16, the government's general budget revenue was 272.346 billion yuan, an increase of 10%, but it decreased by 10.4% in 20 17, which is exactly the opposite of the government's goal of increasing 10%.
Let's first understand why Tianjin's economy suffered from Waterloo.
First of all, we have to start with the economic structure of Tianjin. Tianjin is a typical industrial city, mainly driven by industrial investment. More than half of the industrial output value is petrochemical, and the rest is coal industry and metal processing industry. Among the troika of GDP, Tianjin's investment in fixed assets accounts for more than 70% of GDP, which is slightly higher than the national level and obviously higher than Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The proportion of first-tier cities is only 20% to 30%.
Before 20 12, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in Tianjin kept above 25% every year, so this model in Tianjin once brought about rapid growth.
However, with the environmental storm and the policy orientation of de-capacity, the Tianjin model has come to an end. One year in by going up one flight of stairs, jump directly at 20 17.
In 20 17, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in Tianjin increased from 10% in the first quarter to 3.6% in the second quarter and -0.3% in the third quarter. There was a slight rebound in the fourth quarter, but it still dragged down GDP growth.
In Tianjin's fixed assets investment structure, infrastructure and real estate each account for about 20%, mainly because the decline in infrastructure investment has dragged down fixed assets investment, which is also related to the central control of PPP development model. Local financing difficulties, infrastructure investment can only decline. In addition, it is also related to defending the blue sky, and the government has requested to stop construction.
Apart from infrastructure, industrial investment plummeted, which is the main reason. Jiang Chao of Haitong Securities wrote an analysis report last year. Because of the environmental storm, Tianjin was injured because of the limited production of coal, steel, coal-fired boiler emissions, cement, casting and other industries.
The export and consumption of the other two carriages of GDP are not satisfactory. Although limited production has an impact on Tianjin, Beijing and Hebei, why is Tianjin the most obvious decline? Jiang Chao said that because the labor income of Tianjin residents accounts for only 40% of GDP, which is far lower than about 50% in Beijing and Hebei, residents' income restricts the consumption power of Tianjin people.
In 20 17, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Tianjin was 572.967 billion yuan, only increasing by 1.7%. The national growth rate is 10.2%, which shows that the consumption power of Tianjin people is far below the national average.
Since 1978, the industries in first-tier cities have been iteratively updated, transformed and upgraded. However, Tianjin has always refused to self-revolution, and has been immersed in self-replication in industry. Finally, it became a huge industrial city. Once there are policies that are not conducive to industrial production, many enterprises with high energy consumption and high pollution will shut down, and Tianjin will take off a layer of skin.
Why is the consumption level in Tianjin not good? The following is an analysis of people's climate in Tianjin, Zhihu for reference:
Tianjin GDP stalled and plummeted. 20 18 will Tianjin house prices fall?
The basis of house prices is unstable.
Why does the first part of Cherry attract attention: Why does the House of Big Cherry talk about Tianjin economy first? Because a city's housing price is unstable, it still depends on economic development.
As a common sense, the sharp decline in economic growth rate definitely means a decline in per capita disposable income. Companies have stopped production and production, and employees can't keep their jobs. Where can they get their income?
However, I was surprised that the per capita disposable income of Tianjin residents actually increased by 8.9% in the first three quarters of 20 17, outperforming GDP by so much. Generally speaking, after deducting the price factor, it is normal for the two to differ by a few tenths. For example, the national GDP increased by 6.9%, the per capita disposable income of residents increased by 7.3%, the GDO of Beijing increased by 6.7%, and the per capita disposable income of residents increased by 6.9%.
But it's a few percentage points short, and I always feel incredible! I don't know if it is mixed with water, because Tianjin Binhai New Area recently adjusted the GDP of 20 16 years from 10002 billion yuan to 665.4 billion yuan, squeezing out more than 300 billion yuan of water.
So I'm curious about the income growth of Tianjin people! Who can help me solve it?
If the economy falls sharply and the income of residents does not fall (I don't believe it), it will naturally support housing prices. But if the economy falls sharply, not to mention the income is not guaranteed, and even the job is a problem, who will dare to continue to overdraw and invest in buying a house? Therefore, Cherry believes that the future trend of housing prices in Tianjin will ultimately depend on Tianjin's economic transformation. Of course, unless the central bank releases water again, hehe.
In 20 17, the housing turnover in Tianjin, whether new or second-hand, showed a significant decline.
In terms of new houses, the area of new houses increased by13.97 million in 2065,438+07, which was 8% lower than that in 2065,438+06, but the demand side dropped more. 2065,438+02.8 million, with a turnover of 654.38+02.8 million, down 50% compared with 2065,438+06. In terms of price, the average transaction price of new houses is 20 15707 yuan/,which is higher than 20 16 15%.
Isn't Tianjin a price limit? Why has the house price gone up?
Since Binhai New Area began to falsify data, I have a conditioned response to Tianjin's statistical data. Is the data true?
Tianjin GDP stalled and plummeted. 20 18 will Tianjin house prices fall?
In 20 17, the contracted transaction volume of second-hand houses in Tianjin was 94,434 sets, which was 50% lower than that in 20 16, and the average transaction price was13,308 yuan/,up 8% from last month.
Because many fans in Tianjin have left me messages to reflect that the price of the second-hand housing market in Tianjin has really dropped, not only because of the sluggish transaction, but also because the price has really dropped by about 15%, but statistically it has gone up, which I don't understand.
Let's look at the supply in the future market:
Tianjin GDP stalled and plummeted. 20 18 will Tianjin house prices fall?
As can be seen from the above figure, the supply of 20 15 and 20 16 was in short supply for two consecutive years, but by 20 17, the supply began to exceed the demand.
By the end of 20 17, the saleable stocks in Tianjin were14120,000 sets and124,000 sets respectively, and the decontamination cycle was 13 months. Generally, if it exceeds 12 months, the balance of supply and demand will develop in the direction of surplus, and when it enters the buyer's market, the price will naturally have downward pressure.
In terms of land supply, Tianjin sold more land in 20 16, so the housing supply will increase in 20 17 and 20 18. In 20 17, the land sold in Tianjin was much less than that in 20 16, but the land revenue increased, indicating that the land transaction unit price was high.
Tianjin GDP stalled and plummeted. 20 18 will Tianjin house prices fall?
Some people say that the market is not good, the government provides less land, and the price is difficult to fall. But you have to think about it, Tianjin's fiscal revenue is falling so badly now, why doesn't the government sell land for dinner? So the land is still for sale. Whether the policy can be relaxed in the future depends on how quickly the inventory in Tianjin rises. Anyway, because of the city's policy, the central government encourages more policies in one city.