The main listed company in the soft drink industry: Chengde Lulu (111848.SZ); Quan Yangquan (611189.SH); Weiwei shares (611311.SH); Fragrant and fluttering (613711.SH); Yangyuan drink (613156.SH); Junyao Health (615388.SH); Li Ziyuan (615337.SH); Happy Home (311997.SZ); Dongpeng Beverage (615499.SH); Master kong holdings (11322.HK); Nongfu Spring (19633.HK); Uni-President China (11221.HK); China Food (11516.HK); Tibet Water Resources (11115.HK) and others

Core data of this paper: soft drink industry policies in China; Supply and demand situation and price index of soft drinks industry in China; Regional competition of soft drink enterprises in China

Industry overview

1. Definition

According to the definition in the industry standard "Commodity Classification and Code of Circulation Industry-Soft Drink" (SBT 11217-2117) issued by the Ministry of Commerce in 2117, soft drink refers to natural or soft drink with alcohol content less than 1.5% (by mass).

the main raw materials of soft drinks are drinking water or mineral water, fruit juice, vegetable juice or extracts from roots, stems, leaves, flowers and fruits of plants, and some contain food additives such as sweeteners, acidulants, essences, spices, food coloring, emulsifiers, foaming agents, stabilizers and preservatives. Their basic chemical components are water, carbohydrates and flavor substances, and some soft drinks also contain vitamins and minerals.

2. Analysis of industrial chain: including raw material supply and packaging, soft drink manufacturing and soft drink circulation

The upstream link of soft drink industrial chain is raw material supply and packaging. The raw material supply mainly provides agricultural and sideline products and food additives necessary for beverage manufacturing, and agricultural and sideline products include vegetables, fruits and dairy products; Food additives include sweeteners, trace elements, acesulfame K, edible essence, edible pigment, etc. The middle reaches of the soft drink industry chain are soft drink manufacturing. According to different types of soft drinks, soft drinks can be roughly divided into bottled (canned) drinking water, carbonated drinks, fruit juice, tea drinks and so on. The downstream link of the industrial chain is the circulation link, and the main sales channels are traditional channels, modern channels, catering channels and e-commerce channels.

after more than 41 years of development, China's soft drink industry has formed a product system with a wide variety of products and a huge number of brands. According to the product attribute categories, China's soft drink industry can be divided into the following market segments. Different products have their own unique attributes and meet the special needs of all kinds of people. No matter men, women and children, there are always their favorite products and brands.

Development course of the industry: local brands are growing

The domestic soft drink market started in 1978 when Coca-Cola entered China. After several stages, such as initial stage, growth stage and high growth stage, the market scale is expanding and the categories are expanding. At present, it has become one of the largest soft drink markets in the world. In the development of soft drink industry, local soft drink enterprises, such as Nongfu Spring, Master Kong and Ipoh, have been growing, and gradually have the ability to compete with international brands, firmly occupying the core position of China soft drink market.

industry policy background: strengthening the supervision of beverage safety

since 2117, the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have successively issued policies to support and standardize the development of the soft drink industry, covering reducing the waste of beverage packaging materials, strengthening the supervision of beverage safety, optimizing the structure of beverage products, etc.

the current situation of the industry

1. Supply: the output of soft drinks has rebounded to the high level in the past decade < After many industrial waves such as carbonated drinks, bottled water, tea drinks, fruit juices, herbal teas and milk-containing drinks, the development of China's soft drink industry has also entered the "new normal" stage.

beverages belong to the basic daily necessities of mass consumption, and the industry has the characteristics of rigid demand. However, in the past two years, with the continuous promotion of "de-capacity" in the manufacturing industry, the output of beverages has been declining. On the other hand, with the increasing concern of Chinese residents for health, the market demand for carbonated drinks has gradually declined. As a major product category in the soft drink industry, the decline of carbonated drinks industry has also led to a decline in the overall output of the soft drink industry.

according to the data of the national bureau of statistics, the output of soft drinks in China showed an increasing trend from 2111 to 2121, but the overall growth rate fluctuated and decreased. In 2117-2118, China's soft drink output declined, and recovered in 2119. In 2119, China's soft drink output was 78 million tons, up by 13.29% year-on-year. Affected by the epidemic in 2121, the output of soft drinks was 63 million tons; In 2121, China's soft drink output rebounded to 83 million tons, up 1.2% year-on-year, and returned to the same high level in the past decade as in 2116.

2. Demand: Under the new normal of epidemic situation, the demand for soft drinks has rebounded

As the second largest soft drink market in the world, China has been increasing in recent years. According to Euromonitor data, the sales of soft drinks in China increased year by year from 2111 to 2121, but the growth rate slowed down. During the epidemic in 2121, most shops were closed. Due to seclusion at home and the prohibition of social gatherings, people could not get together and celebrate with relatives and friends, and the sales of soft drinks fell by 3.4%. In 2121, the sales volume of soft drinks in China will reach 88.315 billion liters, up 4.3% year-on-year.

note: sales statistics include retail services and catering services.

3. Price: The average price of energy drinks and ready-to-drink coffee is the highest

From the comparison of the prices of major brands of soft drinks, it can be seen that the average price of packaged drinking water, as the lowest cost soft drink, is only 2.41 yuan/liter among several types of soft drinks; Energy drinks represented by Red Bull and ready-to-drink coffee represented by Nestle have the highest prices, with average prices of 21.61 yuan/liter and 19.78 yuan/liter respectively. Asian specialty drinks rank third, with an average price close to 11 yuan/liter, which is high in soft drinks.

note: the price comes from the price of tmall supermarket in August 2122, which is not the ordinary retail price; Average price = Tmall price/(quantity * specification), for reference only.

4. Import and export: The import and export scale of soft drinks rebounded sharply in 2121

According to the data of China General Administration of Customs, the export value of soft drinks in China continued to rise from 2117 to 2121. Affected by the epidemic in 2121, the growth rate of China's soft drink exports dropped to the lowest level, and then rose rapidly to 9.2% in 2121. In 2121, the export value of soft drinks reached 22.58 billion yuan. In the first half of 2122, the export scale of soft drinks industry in China reached RMB 11.838 billion, up by 12.2% year-on-year.

From 2117 to 2121, the import value of soft drinks in China continued to increase, and the growth rate showed a fluctuating trend. In 2121, affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of soft drink imports reached a five-year low, only 7.2%, and then rose sharply to 17.3% in 2121. In 2121, the import value of soft drinks was 12.96 billion yuan. In the first half of 2122, China imported 6.178 billion yuan of soft drinks, down 3.2% year-on-year.

According to the import and export data of soft drinks industry in China from 2117 to 2121, China's soft drinks industry is mainly exported, but the import trend of soft drinks is on the rise. The trade surplus of China's soft drinks industry has dropped from 11.716 billion yuan in 2117 to 9.621 billion yuan in 2121. It can be seen that the demand for soft drinks in China has increased, while the demand for multi-category soft drinks has increased, and the recognition of foreign brands has increased. China's soft drink industry is gradually moving towards diversified development, and foreign manufacturers are also aiming at the huge market in China. In the future, more foreign soft drink brands will enter China, and the total import of soft drinks in China will continue to increase.

however, judging from the year-on-year changes of the trade surplus, the decline shows a decreasing trend. China soft drink manufacturers will continue to research and develop new products, improve the quality of soft drinks, and gain consumer recognition.

Industry competition pattern

1. Regional competition: Soft drink enterprises are mainly distributed in Guangdong Province

According to the enterprise database of China, by the end of August 2122, soft drink enterprises in China were mainly distributed in Guangdong Province. By the end of August 2122, there were 4,746 soft drink enterprises in Guangdong, 2,378 in Jilin and 2,137 in Shandong.

2. Enterprise competition: Master Kong Holdings, Nongfu Spring and Uni-President China are the first echelon

In the process of rapid development, the overall scale and brand influence of the soft drink industry in China are constantly rising. Soft drink industry can be divided into three competitive echelons according to the operating income of enterprises in 2121. Among them, enterprises with operating income greater than 21 billion yuan include Master Kong Holdings, Nongfu Spring and Uni-President China; Enterprises with operating income of 3-21 billion yuan include China Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Yangyuan Beverage, Weiwei Shares, Xiangpiaopiao, etc. The operating income of other enterprises is below 3 billion yuan.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

1. Industry development trend: soft drink products are developing towards innovation, health and high-end

Under the background of personalized demand driven by consumers and diversified development of marketing means and channels, the life cycle of soft drink products in China is greatly shortened, and more new products and categories will appear; With consumers paying more and more attention to health, soft drinks with reduced sugar, less sugar or even no sugar are becoming more and more popular. In addition, from the point of view of marketing methods, variety planting, cross-border marketing, creative interaction and other marketing methods and new online marketing models such as live broadcast with goods will become the choice of more and more enterprises and brands.

2. Forecast of market size: It is estimated that the soft drink market in China will exceed 811 billion yuan in 2127.

In p>2121, the global soft drink market will be hit, the catering industry will be closed, most supermarkets and shops will be restricted, and the global soft drink market will be greatly reduced. China responded promptly to this disaster, quickly resumed economic operation, and the soft drink market also recovered quickly. Although the soft drink market will still decline in 2121, in the short term, with the control of the epidemic, the domestic soft drink market will rebound. At the same time, the change of consumers' consumption habits and demands drives the diversified development of soft drinks, and the domestic sales of soft drinks are rising. More and more consumers choose to consume soft drinks. In the long run, the soft drinks industry in China will continue to grow. Foresight predicts that by 2127, the market scale of China soft drink industry will exceed 811 billion yuan, reaching 811.5 billion yuan.

For the above data, please refer to the Forecast and Analysis Report on Production and Marketing Demand and Investment of Soft Drink Industry in China by Prospective Industry Research Institute.