analysis of income structure in the United States: high-end service industry accounts for the largest proportion

1. High-end service industry accounts for the largest proportion of GDP

When analyzing the income structure of American families, we find that wage income accounts for the largest proportion, accounting for 64.3%. From the perspective of income method GDP, we can know the income growth of employees in the industry and even the whole American people from the growth rate of GDP in various industries. It is found that from the perspective of industry, the industries that account for the largest proportion of GDP are finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, accounting for 21%, followed by professional and commercial services, accounting for 12.3%, and manufacturing, accounting for 11.8%; The total proportion of wholesale trade and retail trade is 11.7%.

Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, and professional and commercial services all belong to high-end service industries, accounting for 32.3% of the national GDP. The service industry is characterized by high density of intellectual elements, high added value of output, low resource consumption and less environmental pollution. From the high proportion of high-end service industry in the GDP of the United States, we can infer that:

1. The high-end service industry shows the characteristics of high intellectual density, so it is not difficult to explain the phenomenon that "the employment situation of people with bachelor's degrees or above in the United States is very good" (in our macro report "American Consumption: Steady Growth", we pointed out that the unemployment rate of people with bachelor's degrees or above in the United States is only 3.9%, while the unemployment rate of people with high school education or below is as high as 11.

2. The high added value of high-end service industry's output and low resource consumption are conducive to the increase of company value. From this, it can be inferred that the market value of listed companies in high-end service industry in the United States (most typically the S&P financial sector) has sufficient upward momentum;

3. America's dependence on high-end service industry will inevitably lead to high unemployment rate of low-level labor;

4. It will also lead to the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor in the first income distribution in the United States (the income of highly educated talents is far greater than that of low-educated workers);

5. It is difficult to reduce the fiscal expenditure (used to distribute unemployment benefits and related subsidies);

6. Structural inflation (because the wages of various departments in the economy have a tendency to catch up with each other, the wages of high-end service industries will rise rapidly and greatly, which will lead to the increase of wages of other departments, and the production efficiency of these departments is not enough to promote the increase of wages, so the whole economy will experience inflation);

In contrast to the service industry's high demand for labor and low absorption, the manufacturing industry has a large demand for labor, which is also one of Obama's ruling measures-the reason for bringing manufacturing back to the United States. The manufacturing industry in the United States bottomed out in 2119 and then continued to recover, but it is far from returning to the pre-crisis level.

the American economy has indeed begun to recover, but from the perspective of the medium-term economic cycle, the United States lacks the growth point that can drive the American economy to a higher level (the medium-term cycle is determined by technology). Looking back at history, mankind has experienced four major technological revolutions, namely, the industrial revolution, the steam engine and the railway era, the manufacturing era of electric power, steel and heavy machinery, and the automobile and mass production era. The fifth technological revolution was marked by information and communication technology. At present, we are in the expansion period of the fifth technological revolution. What we are doing is to further explore the technology developed 31 years ago. No matter whether the sixth scientific and technological revolution is the "new biological revolution", "aviation technology revolution" or "shale gas revolution", we have not seen any signs that it will drive the whole economy to flourish.

Of course, in the capital market, we don't value cycles (more than 5 years) or long cycles (more than 21 years). Keynes said, "We are all dead in the long run". However, the short cycle will obey the medium cycle and the long cycle. From a macro perspective, we need to pay attention to the changes in technology.

second, the income structure of American families

in the macro report "American consumption: steady growth" on may 3, we pointed out that American consumption expenditure accounts for 71% of GDP, which is the most important part to support the economic development of the United States. Consumption comes from income. It is very important to analyze the income structure of American families and the main growth drivers of income components for analyzing the consumption power of American residents and even the future development momentum of American economy.

Consumer income refers to the monetary income that consumers get from various sources, which usually includes personal wages, bonuses, other labor income, pensions, grants, bonuses, gifts, rental income, etc. Consumer income mainly forms the purchasing power of consumer materials, which is an important part of social purchasing power. In the 1 th quarter of 2113, in the income structure of American families, employee compensation accounted for 64.3% of the total income, personal current transfer income (including government unemployment insurance benefits) accounted for 17.88%, rental income accounted for 3.73%, interest income accounted for 7.12%, and dividend income accounted for 5.65%.

The main part of employees' compensation is the wages and salaries of enterprises, accounting for 81% of the whole, and other parts include bonuses, other workers' income, gifts, etc., accounting for 21%. American official statistics on wages and salaries show that in the 1 th quarter of 2113, private sector wages accounted for 83% of the total wages, and government sector wages accounted for 17%. Wages in the private sector are divided into commodity production industries (mainly manufacturing industries) and service industries. The former accounts for 16.85% of the total wage income in the United States, while the latter accounts for 66% of the total wage income in the United States.

due to the lack of specific data of wage income in various industries, we approximately use the growth rate of industrial GDP to replace the growth rate of industrial wages. Therefore, the analysis of income structure has risen to the analysis of major industries in the United States.

the industries in the United States are divided into three categories: commodity production department, service provision department (both of which are called private sector) and government department. In 2112, the output value of commodity production sector accounted for 21% of GDP, service provision sector accounted for 66% of GDP, and government sector accounted for 13%.

American commodity production departments mainly include: agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; Mining; Public utilities; Architecture; Manufacturing industry. Among them, the manufacturing industry is the largest commodity production sector, accounting for 11.8% of GDP; The construction industry is second, accounting for 3.52% of GDP.

service providers include: wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, information, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, professional and commercial services, education, art, entertainment, leisure and entertainment, hotels and food, and other services. Among them, the industries that account for the largest proportion of GDP are finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industries, accounting for 21%. Followed by professional and commercial services (including accounting, lawyers, consulting and other industries), accounting for 12.3%; The total proportion of wholesale trade and retail trade in GDP is 11.7%.

in terms of industries, the industries that account for the largest proportion of GDP are finance, insurance, real estate and leasing, accounting for 21%, followed by professional and commercial services, accounting for 12.3%, and manufacturing, accounting for 11.8%. The total proportion of wholesale trade and retail trade is 11.7%.

in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing industries, finance and insurance accounted for 41% (39.21% in 2112), and real estate and leasing accounted for 61% (61.79%). The former includes the Federal Reserve Bank, credit intermediaries and related activities (accounting for 18% of the whole financial, insurance, real estate and leasing business), contractors and related activities (accounting for 13%), securities, commodity contract machines and other financial instruments and related activities (accounting for 5.85%) and funds, trusts and other financial instruments (accounting for 1.27%). In the real estate and leasing business, the real estate business accounts for 55% of the whole finance, insurance and real estate and leasing business, and the leasing business only accounts for 5%.

manufacturing industry is divided into durable goods manufacturing industry and non-durable goods manufacturing industry. In 2112, the overall GDP of manufacturing industry was 1.867 trillion US dollars, of which the GDP of durable goods sector was 1 trillion US dollars and that of non-durable goods manufacturing industry was 1.867 trillion US dollars. The former includes wood products, non-metallic mineral manufacturing, primary metal, metal products manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, computer and electronic products manufacturing, electrical equipment, electrical appliances and components manufacturing, motor vehicle body, trailer and parts manufacturing, other transportation equipment manufacturing, furniture and related products manufacturing, and miscellaneous manufacturing.

In the durable goods manufacturing industry, the four largest components are: computer and electronic products manufacturing, accounting for 25%; Mechanical manufacturing accounts for 14.5%; Metal products manufacturing accounted for 13.44%; Other traffic equipment manufacturing accounts for 11.32%. The proportion of motor vehicle body, trailer and parts is 8.41%.

non-durable goods manufacturing industry includes food, beverage and tobacco products, textile industry and textile production, clothing, leather and related products, paper products, printing and its service industry, petroleum processing and coking industry, plastic and rubber products manufacturing and chemical production.

in the non-durable goods manufacturing industry, the largest proportion is the production of chemicals, accounting for 28.74%; Followed by food, beverage and tobacco and alcohol production, accounting for 26.17%; The second is petroleum processing and coking industry, accounting for 21%.

if the real estate and leasing businesses are merged with the construction industry and collectively referred to as real estate-related industries, it can be known that this part accounts for 16% of the GDP of the United States (3.52% of the construction industry+12.5% of the real estate leasing and services).

through data analysis, we already know that financial insurance, real estate, and professional and commercial services account for the largest proportion in the U.S. GDP (the former accounts for 21%, while the latter accounts for 12.3%), all of which belong to the service industry and belong to high-end service industry. The service industry is characterized by high intelligence element density, high output added value, low resource consumption and less environmental pollution. We can infer that:

1. The high-end service industry shows the characteristics of high intellectual density, so it is not difficult to explain the phenomenon that "the employment situation of people with bachelor's degrees or above in the United States is very good" (in our macro report "American Consumption: Steady Growth", we pointed out that the unemployment rate of people with bachelor's degrees or above in the United States is only 3.9%, while the unemployment rate of people with high school education or below is as high as 11.6%).

2. The high added value of high-end service industry's output and low resource consumption are conducive to the increase of the company's value. From this, it can be inferred that the market value of listed companies in high-end service industry in the United States (the most typical one is the S&P financial sector) has sufficient upward momentum.

3. America's dependence on high-end service industry will inevitably lead to high unemployment rate of low-level labor;

4. It will also lead to the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor in the first income distribution in the United States (the income of highly educated talents is far greater than that of low-educated workers);

5. It is difficult to reduce the fiscal expenditure (used to distribute unemployment benefits and related subsidies);

6. Structural inflation (because the wages of various departments in the economy have a tendency to catch up with each other, the wages of high-end service industries will rise rapidly and greatly, which will lead to the increase of wages of other departments, and the production efficiency of these departments is not enough to promote the increase of wages, so the whole economy will experience inflation);

In contrast to the service industry's high demand for labor and low absorption, the manufacturing industry has a large demand for labor, which is also one of Obama's ruling measures-the reason for bringing manufacturing back to the United States. As can be seen from the previous article, the manufacturing industry in the United States bottomed out in 2119 and then continued to recover, but it is far from returning to the pre-crisis level. The major manufacturing industries are computer and electronic products manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, other transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical production, petroleum processing and coking industry, and food, beverage and tobacco products. At present, we lack enough data to demonstrate these future development trends, but intuitively, the improvement of shale gas mining technology will bring about the steady development of petroleum processing and coking industry in the United States; Since 2111, the output value of chemical production in the United States has steadily increased, which is related to the higher requirements for production technology and the stricter quality inspection and environmental protection standards in the United States. The rigid demand for beverage and tobacco data will gradually increase with the gradual recovery of the economy. However, as far as computer and electronic products manufacturing, machinery manufacturing and other transportation equipment manufacturing are concerned, they are more sensitive to the low-tax and low-cost production environment because of their low technical requirements and strong reproducibility of product processing flow. For example, manufacturers such as Dell and Apple have factories in developing countries such as China. If the Obama administration does reduce the production costs of local enterprises in the United States and improve the attractiveness of production in the United States in the future, manufacturing industries such as computer and electronic products may slowly return to the United States, or at least stop "going out of the United States". If not, we have doubts about how many jobs these manufacturing industries can absorb in the United States.

Of course, we should also see that the United States and even the whole world are facing a problem: lack of economic growth points. Looking back at history, mankind has experienced four major technological revolutions, namely, the industrial revolution, the steam engine and the railway era, the manufacturing era of electric power, steel and heavy machinery, and the automobile and mass production era. The fifth technological revolution was marked by information and communication technology. Every technological change in history is actually divided into two stages. The first stage is the introduction period, that is, the first 21-31 years, which is the introduction stage of technology, and new technologies have developed rapidly and been widely used in major fields. Then enter the second stage, the expansion period. At this stage, people will deploy many innovative applications on the basis of this technology, and the potential of new technologies will be fully explored.

The fifth great technological change happened 31 years ago, which was the beginning of IT technology and information communication technology. In fact, now that we have entered the expansion period, we have begun to explore many new functions on the basis of IT technology, such as the continuous intelligence of mobile phones and computers, the development of the Internet of Things, and even many clips from sci-fi movies such as Iron Man, which can now be realized. But the problem is that this is a further development of technology that started 31 years ago. At present, we may not have seen any new technology that can meet the needs and development of the whole human race.