I just think of it as a need to drift in a first-tier city. If I have 5 million yuan, I won't buy a house anywhere at this node now, and no one will do business with risks greater than opportunities, knowing that house prices are likely to fall, and taking money to buy a loss-making goods is out of my mind!

I wrote all morning today, just to answer the question whether the house price will drop by 21% after the introduction of the property tax. If you are interested, you can finish reading it.

I firmly believe that house prices will fall in the next few years, not just slightly.

I have a hundred reasons to be bearish on the house, but I can't find one reason to be bullish.

1. The policy mantra is getting tighter and tighter. We will resolutely curb the rise in housing prices, and we will not relax in continuous interviews with cities in 2112. The implementation of containment in various places is in full swing. Sichuan province tightened the mortgage and increased the down payment ratio of housing in the whole province. In most areas, the down payment ratio of the second suite mentioned 51%, of which Chengdu mentioned 61%, and the third suite stopped lending; The president of Wuhan Branch of the People's Bank of China wrote that the task of monetizing the shed reform has been completed, and it is suggested to consider withdrawing from this policy to curb the upward pressure on house prices.

2. Leveraged funds continue to collapse. Whether the real estate developer Zhonghong Co., Ltd. and Guizhou Hongli have experienced capital turnover difficulties one after another, or the long-term rental apartment company Dingjia Technology people in Hangzhou have gone to the building, there are still rumors that 311 billion P2P collapsed.

3. The shrinking transaction volume of second-hand houses has spread from first-tier cities to the whole country. I cited the data in my previous article, and everyone can feel that the property market transaction is bleak.

4. The house price in Xiamen dropped by 5,111-15,111 yuan/square meter (inside and outside the island), and the real estate speculators were caged. Nanjing's housing prices fell for 7 months in a row, Shenzhen's housing prices fell for 21 consecutive months, Guangzhou's housing prices fell regionally, and second-hand houses in Wuhan fell. Some people say that you produce data. I want to tell you that when you know the data, you will pay a heavy price for your idiot thinking.

5. There are enough houses in the market

On August 22nd, I loved Hu Jinghui, former vice president of my family and chairman of China Real Estate Brokers Association, and revealed that there were 911,111 vacant houses that were neither sold nor rented in Beijing's 6th Ring Road, which was enough for Beijing to sell for five years without building a house.

Earlier, various intermediary companies in Beijing promised to take out 1.2 million sets of rental housing, without increasing the rent. Just take 1.2 million sets. How many houses do you think they have?

If you add up the vacant houses, the rented houses held by the intermediary and the rented houses, these should be saleable houses, and the whole country will be an astronomical figure.

6. The golden hoop of real estate tax will bring the real estate market back to its original shape sooner or later. By then, monsters will come out, and it is no longer a secret how many vacant houses there are in any city. The surging housing market is afraid that your stomach will not be able to snack. When the property tax comes out, the market expectation will change, and the concept and opportunity of buying a house will no longer exist.

so, if I have 5 million yuan, I won't buy a house in a first-tier city, because the house price can't avoid falling, and I will choose it by myself when it has stabilized and fallen enough. Besides, the money for buying a house now is not enough, and I need leverage. You said that with 5 million cash, life will be relatively easy. Why do you want to work for a bank?

The purpose of making money is to live a comfortable life. With 5 million in hand, you have to buy a reinforced concrete and still owe a debt. Are you missing a muscle?

as for the third-and fourth-tier cities, discount the price by half before considering!