Luo Zhenyu's 2018 New Year's Eve speech, "Time's Friend," is four hours long and is titled "Small Trends."

The full text*** is divided into eight parts:

The first part, looking back at 2018.

The second part of the article is about "what is a mini-trend".

Parts 3 through 7, five heartfelt questions about preparing to capitalize on megatrends:

Part 8, recommending a book, The Variable.

Change is no longer a part of life, but has become life itself. It seems like so many eras ended in 2018, but it's actually because we didn't get to know more people until 40 years ago.

Vanke shouted "live", and some people lamented that "2019 may be the worst year in the past decade, but the best year in the next decade."

It doesn't matter how pessimistic or optimistic people are when it comes to doing things, what's in front of them is not an abstract dilemma, but a concrete timetable. You have your plans, the world has other plans. The macro is what we must accept, the micro is what we can make a difference.

The days of going with the flow and lying back and enjoying the dividends are over. Mobile payments have made cash flow in the restaurant industry verifiable, hence the creation of credit, and the restaurant industry is starting to shift to capitalization and going public.

The owner of the restaurant heard that the state issued 4G licenses, at most, can think of watching videos more convenient, who would have thought that this thing through mobile payment can make a huge impact on the whole industry. The forces that lead to change often come from other areas, from factors that we don't normally observe.

Small trends are the trends that influence trends, the changes that bring about change. Minor trends are small, hard to detect, and don't occur in areas I'm familiar with.

As another example, the invention of cat litter made a big difference in the choice of pets that humans have. Between dogs and cats, cats are the more convenient choice. Because of this small trend in cat litter, there is also a big trend in the "cloud cat-sucking" industry.

Giants like Meituan and Tmall have caught up with the trend, and have become super platforms with artificial intelligence systems like "Super Brain" and "Deer Class". The vast majority of people can not control such a big trend. The chain reaction of these platforms may roll over to you and become your mini-trend.

What's the difference between someone who wants to be part of a megatrend and someone who wants to be part of a megatrend? A megatrend is "if only it were so and so"; a megatrend is "whatever I can't catch up with, I'll be ready and waiting for it in the future".

We tend to live in the world of feeling, and it's hard to cross the chasm to see the real world.

The chasm between truth and perception: on one side, humans work desperately to distort the truth; on the other, the world works desperately to hide itself. The truth may not be mysterious, but it is hidden.

Before the 2017 Spring Festival, we wanted to put the ads of the app on, but the result was blocked by the standard of "daily activity of more than 100 million", and lost to Taobao. Taobao in 2017 on the basis of the "double 11", the server capacity of another 3 times, the result of the Spring Festival night of the actual peak landing more than 15 times the double 11. We don't know anything about the power of Spring Festival, and we often don't know the truth.

You see, it's so hard to see the truth.

When we use the equals sign, it's the equivalent of saying something doesn't matter. On one side of the equals sign is a fact, and on the other side is an abstraction based on some principle, and that's how we grow up, throwing away the real world while we do it.

It is the ability to reduce that is the rarest ability of the doer to approach the truth and grasp small trends. Put on the reduction glasses and look down one layer, you will go back to the real world, you will find different people and the relationship between people.

How to have the ability to restore? How do you catch small trends? Learn to use multiple thinking models.

What determines our individual destiny is not only the well-known megatrends, but also the kind of small trends that we need to discover on our own initiative.

Non***cognition is the process of moving from exclusion to recognition, from detachment from ****cognition to recreating ****cognition. The process of innovation is the process of non-*** literacy.

Any innovation has to go through the process of "heresy" to "great revolution" to "the way it should be", otherwise it is not true innovation. When I was young, department stores were "supposed to be", supermarkets were "great revolutions", and Taobao was "heresy".

A lot of the innovations seem to be whimsical, but in fact there is a latent need behind them that has been ignored.

The beef and seafood printed on the package into the instant noodles "inconvenient noodle shop", from ordering to payment can not see a person "one person food restaurant" are non-*** knowledge, they come from the deeper **** knowledge. Non-*** knowledge never opposes anything, it just presents what it ignores.

By innovation, we mean going back to an old thing, but doing it again with a new approach. The so-called non-*** knowledge, is that you do not recognize at first glance, but then you know, it turns out to be an old acquaintance.

How to perceive non-*** knowledge? How to innovate? Do those old things again in the latest way.

Over the centuries, wars, famines, plagues, and cancers, threatening the human lifespan, one by one, have gradually fallen into the hands of humanity. And our generation may have a hundred years to live. There is certainly enough time, and are we prepared for such a long lifespan?

When you make a decision, you have to sort out what travels through time and what gets filtered through time.

In addition to the power of a tool like AI being very powerful, we also have the ability to perceive and make judgments about people that AI can't do yet, and it works very well.

Once people and their perceptions are superimposed, a vortex-like force is formed, which constantly involves more people and more external resources, and pushes something to rotate rapidly, which I call the "credit flywheel".

The credit flywheel is about people pushing people, not about algorithms, not about artificial intelligence. Many good companies have been driven by this force, including Shunfeng, which focuses on treating its employees well, and Beijing Eleventh School, which provides free public space for alumni to use for the rest of their lives.

Measure the world with human experience, start your credit flywheel, and you'll be empowered.

Anyone, regardless of your power, looking out over a long enough period of time, you can become a friend of time through a behavioral pattern like long-termism (sticking to and not interrupting what you're doing, and also consistently not being tempted).

While the world is full of uncertainty, you can hedge the uncertainty of the outside world with your own super-certainty. Ordinary people's efforts, compounded by long-termism, will accumulate into miracles.

No matter how 2018 went for us, we have the opportunity to start over, and we must.

There are some things that past life experiences have taught us are important, and in which we gain security, but we rarely reflect on what it took to gain that security.

Your first must-read book of 2019, The Variable, is recommended.

For this year's crossover speech we asked: what do we think about 2018?

So what about 2019?