The Director-General of the World Health Organization announced that the novel coronavirus epidemic constituted a "public health emergency of international concern", which indicated that this novel coronavirus epidemic centered on Wuhan posed a threat to the whole world.
(As of the morning of February 4, the death toll caused by novel coronavirus has reached 425; In fact, as of February 3rd, the number of confirmed cases and deaths in novel coronavirus exceeded the SARS epidemic in 2003, and the situation of prevention and control is grim. )
In 20 18, after the first decline in 28 years, the overall automobile market in 20 19 fell further than that in 20 18; In 2020, with the adjustment of industrial structure and the orderly promotion of the new four modernizations, the automobile industry is expected to usher in stable development, but the sudden epidemic may break people's expectations of this situation.
Throughout the holiday, with the increasing number of people infected with new pneumonia, the prevention and control measures taken by the state have also been upgraded. Wuhan, the automobile production center, is in a closed state, and other places are also closed to traffic. In addition, on October 26th, 65438 10, the State Council officially issued a notice to extend the Spring Festival holiday beyond February 2nd. Subsequently, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei and other provinces and cities successively issued notices and decided to postpone the resumption of work during the Spring Festival holiday. Many officials postponed the time until February 9.
This means that economic life in many places almost stagnated in February, and Volvo and Dongfeng Da Yue Kia have announced that they will abandon their sales targets in February.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the association, said that the impact of the epidemic this year on the automobile market will be long-term and far-reaching, and automobile sales in many areas have been seriously affected. 1, the sales loss that occurred in February may be irreparable in the future.
70% of car companies stop donating money, which has a huge impact.
In all the chains of the automobile market, the main engine factory is at the most upstream, controlling the production and sales links, and their every move has a huge impact on the automobile market.
In February this year, due to the influence of novel coronavirus, the commencement date of many main engine plants was at least 10 days later than before. Relevant statistics show that about 70% car companies choose to postpone the resumption of work until February 10, and the start and opening of 4S stores are also scheduled after February 9.
Almost the entire automobile industry has been shut down collectively, which is the first time over the years. Industry experts predict that after the whole industrial chain is extended and stopped due to the epidemic, the automobile production in China will drop by 3% in the whole year and by 15% in the first quarter. It is equivalent to about 3% of the annual automobile market, which was realized in February when the epidemic eased and consumers dared to buy cars.
If the epidemic continues to spread, the impact on the automobile market will be devastating, because almost all economic activities will stop, and the decline of the automobile market in 2020 may be greater than 20 19 years.
From 2065438 to 2009, the automobile production in Hubei reached 2.24 million, accounting for 8.8% of the whole country. Wuhan, the provincial capital, is the headquarters of Dongfeng Motor, the second largest automobile group in China, as well as Dongfeng Honda, Shenlong and Dongfeng Renault. Geely and SAIC-GM also set up factories in the local area, and naturally entered a state of suspension. According to the notice on the extension of the Spring Festival holiday issued by Hubei Province on February 2, all kinds of enterprises in the province will resume work no earlier than 24: 00 on February 13.
The relevant person in charge of Dongfeng Company said, "The company will study the epidemic situation in depth and properly prepare the plan for resuming production and operation. Under the premise of not ensuring the health and safety of employees, the date of resumption of work of the whole company is to be determined, and the specific time of resumption of work is determined according to the epidemic prevention and control situation in various places. "
In addition to Wuhan's automobile factory, Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, BMW, Ford, Geely, Chery, Tesla and other automobile companies have also announced that they will postpone their work. These factories will produce about half of the cars in China in 20 19.
Honda 65438+announced on June 30 that due to the spread of the epidemic, it decided to stop its motorcycle production in Tianjin and Suzhou and its automobile production in Guangzhou and Wuhan, and the motorcycle and automobile business production was suspended until February 9; The day before, Toyota said that it would postpone the start-up time of its four automobile factories in China after the Spring Festival from early February to 10 depending on the situation after February.
In addition, vehicle companies enthusiastically donated money and materials, and the total amount quickly exceeded the 654.38 billion yuan mark. This spirit is commendable, but this large expenditure will affect other budgets of vehicle manufacturers, such as advertising expenditure and other marketing expenses, and will also affect sales performance to a certain extent.
Or stimulate car sales.
Of course, the ravages in novel coronavirus may also partially stimulate the automobile market, because compared with public transportation, the probability of private cars being infected is lower, which will stimulate the sales of new cars to some extent. The first case was during the SARS epidemic in 2003.
At least that's the data. In the months of SARS peak (February-May 2003), domestic passenger cars still maintained a high growth rate of more than 60% year-on-year, which should be the highest growth period in history.
From a longer perspective, especially the overall development of automobiles in recent 20 years, 2003 was the year with the highest year-on-year growth rate, reaching 70.6%. But in 2020, will this familiar new coronary artery epidemic reactivate the automobile market?
But the situation is different, and the stimulus effect is estimated to be greatly reduced. In 2003, the number of passenger cars was no more than 10, which belonged to the incubation period when private cars started at a high speed. Most people basically have no cars, but they have entered a stage of popularization. SARS can be said to be a driving force, which has aroused unprecedented enthusiasm for buying cars. However, in 2020, the number of passenger cars in China has exceeded 160, which has been included in the later stage of popularization, and the growth rate has dropped sharply.
At the same time, according to the insurance data of 20 19, the increase and replacement ratio exceeded 50% for the first time, that is to say, the increase and replacement ratio exceeded the proportion of buying new cars for the first time, which marked that China's passenger car market entered the stock market. The concept of automobile consumption is more mature, car purchase is more rational and calm, and it is not easily affected by short-term stimulus factors.
1 and the second quarter have a huge impact, and the long-term trend remains unchanged?
The core feature of automobile production is a long industrial chain, and the connection of supply chain is extremely important. Therefore, at present, the auto parts system in Hubei and even the whole country should not resume production on time, which has a serious adverse impact on auto production in February. Therefore, the total automobile output in February 2020 should be seriously affected, and production will be blocked, resulting in a more serious year-on-year decline.
The epidemic situation in COVID-19 is characterized by stronger infectivity, wider spread, greater impact on economically developed areas and shorter control time. It can be concluded that this epidemic has a greater impact on residents in first-and second-tier cities, while families in first-and second-tier cities have a higher proportion of cars, the proportion of buying and replacing cars is higher than that of new cars, and the consumption concept is more mature. Because of the serious epidemic situation, many car replacement needs will be delayed, so it has a great impact on the short-term 1 quarter, and it will gradually recover in the second quarter depending on the epidemic situation control. So we revised our judgment on the future market and lowered our sales forecast for February and March.
As of press time, although the situation in Hubei is still grim, the number of confirmed cases outside Hubei has declined, indicating that the epidemic is developing in a good direction, and the epidemic will eventually pass, and the automobile market will return to its original appearance.
China auto market has peaked in stages, followed by stock competition. The stronger the strong, the more the weak will be eliminated. Therefore, for everyone, it is more important to enhance internal competitiveness rather than relying on external factors.
Words? |? Dabin
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.