The 2021 May Day tourism holiday is coming, many partners are very much looking forward to be able to travel to foreign countries, but now the epidemic abroad is still very serious, so we try not to go to foreign countries to play, in the country more comfortable, the following to share the specific strategy.
The beginning of 2021 is still facing two major epidemic background - the global epidemic form is still severe, our country into the post epidemic era. Overall, China's situation is better than the world, the domestic epidemic is currently very optimistic, compared with 2020, since the Spring Festival, the residents' willingness to consume has continued to be released, which allows tourism practitioners suffering from the epidemic to take a breath of fresh air, given that the overseas epidemic is still fluctuating, and domestic tourism is still the main theme, the main engine, Dr. Lin Feng, chairman of the board of directors of Green Dimension Culture and Tourism, optimistically predicts that the revenue of domestic tourism will exceed that of 2019, or even recover to the 2018 level, and the whole may be able to exceed 6 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.9% over 2019; China's inbound tourism revenue in the first half of 2021 will drop by about 80% compared to the same period of 2019, and will improve significantly in the second half of the year with the rise in the global vaccination rate, and it is predicted that it will recover in the second half of the year to about 55% of the same period of 2019.
Green Dimension Travel predicts six major market characteristics in 2021, combining policy guidance and actual consumption trends.
I. Background of the two major openings in 2021
(I) The global epidemic situation is still grim
The epidemic rebounded in some countries around the world. At present, from a global perspective, the situation of the new crown epidemic is still very serious, in early March the epidemic in many countries in Europe is still in a stalemate, France, Spain, Britain, Italy, Germany, a single day confirmed cases are at the level of fluctuations. Although the United States in the role of vaccination appeared to improve the momentum, but the number of confirmed cases in a single day is still in the tens of thousands of level fluctuations. In addition, in mid-March, India, Brazil, Russia, Argentina, and Colombia still had significant growth in cases. These figures are a direct indication that the current outbreak situation remains in a very serious condition. The head of WHO's health emergency program, Michael Ryan, has publicly stated that it is not realistic to achieve an end to the epidemic by the end of this year.
Global vaccination rates are low. According to relevant data, although individual countries have a high proportion of vaccination (Israel has the highest proportion of vaccinated people to the total population, 92.46%, the UAE more than 60%, the UK more than 30%, and the US 22%), the global vaccine prevalence rate is extremely low at present, and as of February 28th, about 1.8% of the world's population has achieved vaccination, which is far from the realization of mass immunization globally and there is still a A very long way to go. Zhong Nanshan has also said publicly that it will take at least two to three years, if not longer, to achieve global herd immunity.
(ii) China enters the post-epidemic era
The Spring Festival released good data. Consumer data released by the Ministry of Commerce shows that from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first month (February 11-17), the country's key retail and catering enterprises achieved sales of about 821 billion yuan, an increase of 28.7% compared with the Spring Festival Golden Week in 2020, and an increase of 4.9% compared with the Golden Week of the Spring Festival in 2019, basically restoring to the level before the epidemic, which fully demonstrates that the backlog of consumer demand and potential, began to explode, compared with the 2020 compared to this year's New Year, residents' willingness to consume will continue to be released.
Tourism consumption is on the rise. 2021 Chinese New Year is the first Chinese New Year holiday in which the Xin Guan epidemic has entered the normalized prevention and control phase, and a large number of people chose to spend the New Year on the spot in order to support the "anti-epidemic" and respond to the country's call. However, based on the analysis of the telecom big data platform, the number of tourists who traveled during the 7 days of the Spring Festival holiday increased by double digits year-on-year, showing a clear trend of full recovery. Influenced by the "local New Year" initiative, the Spring Festival local urban leisure, neighboring countryside tours are hot, especially in the southern region where there is no new epidemic.
Tourism revenue forecast for 2021
Tourism revenue for 2021 will exceed that of 2019. Dr. Lin Feng of Green Dimension Tourism believes that in 2021, China will enter the post epidemic era, and the people's consumption willingness and consumption ability will tend to be high, given that the overseas epidemic is still in fluctuation, and domestic tourism is still the main theme and the main engine, therefore, it is predicted that the domestic tourism revenue will exceed that of 2019, and even recover to the level of 2018, and the whole may be able to break through 6 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.9% compared with that of 2019.
In addition, affected by the instability of the global epidemic, Green Dimension Travel predicts that China's inbound tourism revenue in the first half of 2021 will decline by about 80% compared to the same period of 2019, and will improve significantly in the second half of the year with the rise in the global vaccination rate, and is predicted to recover to about 55% in the second half of the year compared to the same period of 2019. As a result, Greenway Travel forecasts full-year inbound tourism revenues to fall below US$50 billion, recovering to around 38% of 2019 levels (US$131.3 billion).
Greenway: 2021 tourism revenue trend forecast
May 1 domestic tourism revenue will "explode" type of growth. On the one hand, "May Day" is the first long vacation this year, but also the first important holiday for economic consumption after the epidemic situation improves, people's long suppressed desire to consume and high enthusiasm for travel, will usher in the peak of the flow of travel; on the other hand, the May Day holiday in 2019 is a "four-day On the other hand, the May Day holiday in 2019 is "4 days", and the May Day holiday in 2021 is extended to "5 days", therefore, the green dimension of the tour predicts that the domestic tourism revenue in May 2021 compared with the same period in 2019, can increase by 30%.