Lou Jiwei's remarks are aimed at the increasingly popular view that "anti-corruption leads to China's economic downturn". And this view is not completely unfounded. First, from the fourth quarter of 20 13, the year-on-year growth rate of national GDP began to decline, and the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods dropped sharply by 20 13. 1% compared with the previous year (the actual growth rate after deducting the price factor was 1 1.5%). Judging from the monthly year-on-year growth rate, the monthly year-on-year growth rate of 20 13 fell to the level of 2005. At that time, some analysts believed that anti-corruption was one of the important reasons.
The second is that the decline in high-end consumption in the anti-corruption process is very obvious. In particular, the consumption of public funds has been hit, which has curbed the growth rate of consumption to some extent. For example, the "eight regulations" of the central government have obviously curbed the growth of consumer industries such as catering, entertainment, alcohol and luxury consumption. The consumption of public funds was restrained, which directly affected the Spring Festival in 20 14 and became the lowest Spring Festival in recent years. In addition to high-end consumption, anti-corruption actions also affect other areas of the economy. For example, it is forbidden to buy calendars and New Year cards with public funds, which affects non-luxury consumption.
Third, in promoting the construction of some projects, there are also some voices among the people that anti-corruption has hindered the progress of the projects. For example, the high-speed rail is a typical example, and the construction of high-speed rail was the fastest during Liu Zhijun's tenure. After the fall of Liu Zhijun, the construction of high-speed rail once came to a standstill, and many plans were put on hold temporarily. This is no coincidence. In fact, profitable corrupt officials are often the most enthusiastic people to promote the construction of large projects, because the bigger the projects, the more investment, and the greater the space for corruption. With the introduction of the eight regulations, anti-corruption efforts have increased, and officials will naturally slow down planning and construction in order to avoid unnecessary troubles.
Therefore, it is an indisputable fact that anti-corruption has an impact on the economy, but we must realize that this impact is not purely negative. Whether in the short or long term, anti-corruption is only good for the economy, not bad.
On the one hand, as Minister Lou Jiwei said, corruption and government supervision are closely linked, and many corrupt behaviors and rent-seeking behaviors are often just for a piece of government approval. When anti-corruption and decentralization go hand in hand to a certain extent, not only corruption will be reduced, but also the unreasonable control of the government on the private economy will be reduced. Moreover, the competition in the whole market will be fairer, which is undoubtedly beneficial from the perspective of market economy development.
At the same time, anti-corruption can release greater purchasing power. Some people have one-sided views on anti-corruption and curbing consumption. They only saw the sharp drop of public money consumption and the decline of luxury consumption under the background of anti-corruption, but did not see the growth of government investment in people's livelihood. In fact, the decline of the former has a very limited impact on the economy, and the government's investment in public services, especially medical care, education, housing and other projects, will greatly release the purchasing power of the masses and be of great benefit to China's transformation from an investment-driven economy to a consumption-driven economy.
On the other hand, anti-corruption will help to change the current tendency of China's economy towards high-end and luxury development. For a long time in the past, the development trend of high-end and luxury goods in China consumer market is very obvious. Not only are more and more commodities going to the route of high-end luxury packaging, but also they are far from their use value. Many public places have also built private clubs and halls, and even golf courses have been built in parks. This tendency is the inevitable result of high-end consumption increasing year by year and private capital seeking profit.
This development direction is obviously contrary to the actual national conditions of China, and it is also very harmful. First of all, the supply of the market is actually fixed and the largest. When the high-end market continues to expand, it will inevitably be at the expense of the low-end market. Second, there will be a substantial price increase. Leading enterprises have price scale and demonstration significance in the industry. Their price increase behavior on high-end products will soon spread to other enterprises and other levels of products. Third, it intensifies the social psychology of the gap between the rich and the poor. When people with a monthly salary of 2,000 yuan hear that a leader has eaten 20,000 yuan for a meal, their psychology will inevitably fluctuate greatly, and their hatred for the rich and officials will be further intensified, and the whole society will be impetuous in an atmosphere full of brand-name bags.