Wuliangye and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, both liquor industries, don't talk about Maotai, but rely more on Maotai. The demand spillover of Maotai is its core logic.
Only disassembled from ROE, in fact, the business model is as clear as Maotai.
The representative enterprises of 9 industries, such as high-end liquor, condiments, dairy products, pickles, halogen products, bread, meat products, beer and snack food, were selected for analysis, which basically included the main food and beverage leaders of A shares.
The highest net interest rate is Maotai, followed by Fuling mustard tuber and Haitian flavor industry. The rest of the enterprises did not exceed 20%.
The lowest turnover rate of total assets is Maotai, followed by Fuling mustard tuber and Tsingtao beer. If we only look at the business model and exclude the interference factors, the inventory turnover rate is more appropriate.
The lowest inventory turnover rate is still Maotai, followed by Fuling mustard tuber and qiaqia food.
High net interest rate+low turnover rate means high unit price and slow turnover, taking the road of luxury goods; Low net interest rate+high turnover rate means small profits but quick turnover, taking the road of mass consumer goods.
Just disassembling the roe, you will find that the small mustard tuber, which is often regarded as a cheap product, does not rely on small profits but quick turnover, but has a very high premium rate like Maotai.
Therefore, I said that Fuling mustard tuber is the most similar company between A shares and Maotai only from the perspective of the business model of ROE dismantling.
The same industry status. Maotai accounts for nearly half (42%) of high-end liquor sales, and a bottle is hard to find;
Fuling Wujiang series accounts for 37% of the mustard tuber market, and Yuquan mustard tuber, the second place, only accounts for 1 1%, showing a significant oligopoly pattern.
The same gift. Maotai is located on the banks of Chishui River, with soil, climate and microorganisms, not to mention maotai flavor. Since the new millennium, cognition has been strengthened, and the brand power of high-end liquor and national liquor has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The gold-lettered signboard is a face.
Fuling occupies the advantage of producing area. The raw material of mustard tuber is green vegetable, which has tender meat, likes low temperature but is not cold-resistant, has short harvest period and is not rain-tolerant, and can only be planted in a few areas of Chongqing and Zhejiang.
The planting area of cabbage head in Fuling area accounts for more than 40% of the whole country, and the output accounts for about 36% of the whole country. The planting area in Chongqing accounts for 60% of the whole country.
The advantage of getting the moon first is the stable supply of raw materials rather than the low price. In 20 18 and 20 19, the purchasing volume of Fuling pickles accounted for about 30% of the processed vegetables in Fuling District, accounting for 75% of the purchasing volume of enterprises.
Zhejiang enterprises trudge to Chongqing to buy vegetables, Fuling mustard tuber need not worry. As the only national mustard tuber enterprise, the stability of supply chain is the core advantage.
The same share price is touching. From the stock price before 2065438+65438+1 October1in 2007, Fuling mustard tuber rose from 8 yuan to 40 yuan, with an increase of 400%; Maotai rose from 230 to 1830, an increase of 700%.
However, it has been made clear at the beginning of the article that there are only enterprises infinitely close to Maotai, and there is no such enterprise as Maotai.
Although Fuling's net interest rate and ROE are high, and its business model is similar to that of Maotai, Maotai has no hidden worries, but it is nothing more than the pace of capacity release, channel reform, and major shareholders fiddling with shares. Fuling has growth anxiety disorder and a lot of gas color difference.
In terms of products, mustard tuber is only the seasoning of the dining table, there is no demand for gifts, there is no health attribute, and the car with consumption upgrade is not easy to ride;
In terms of channels, mustard tuber circulation channels account for 60%, supermarkets account for 30%, and restaurants only account for 2%. The audience's loyalty is poor and the volume is difficult.
Summary: The ceiling is low, and large items depend on it. Radish, pickles and rice are all expansion directions. Fuling's anxiety will still sink, which can be alleviated by expanding the whole market of table condiments.
But without the advantages of raw materials and brands, horizontal expansion is not easy.
In recent years, Maotai's investment attribute is obvious, which basically calms down the fluctuation of demand and spans bulls and bears. The mustard tuber is still not peaceful, the pace of price increase is not appropriate, and the performance will still fluctuate greatly under the unreasonable inventory cycle.
The high net interest rate is not natural, but comes from years of rising prices. Maotai enjoys exclusive honor, and its net interest rate in 2009-20 19 is basically around 50%, so it is naturally proud.
In 2009, the net interest rate of Fuling mustard tuber was only 10%, and Haitian was 20%. Now the net interest rate of both is close to 30%, both of which come from the price increase of 10.
Valuation analysis:
Not as good as Maotai, or one of the top consumer stocks, it is not expensive to give 30 times PE reasonably.
Only when the anxiety of growth is not alleviated will the stock price be suppressed by valuation. Fuling's current inventory situation, channel sinking, developing new products, the downside risk is small, mainly because the stock price goes up.
If you can open the growth ceiling, it is still exciting.
The condiment series ended here, covering Qianhewei, Haitian, Zhongju Hi-Tech, Hengshun Vinegar, Tianwei Food and Fuling mustard tuber, which lasted for more than two weeks. You can search historical articles to read.
Welcome to pay attention to or star, and sort out 6 stocks for comparison and investment value analysis, defense, attack and balanced allocation tomorrow night. Soy sauce, hot pot ingredients, to stabilize fluctuations.