1. The economic growth rate dropped significantly.

In the first half of the year, the GDP was13061900 million yuan, an increase of 10.4% at comparable prices, and a decrease of 1.8 percentage points over the same period of last year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry was1180 billion yuan, up by 3.5% and down by 0.5 percentage point; The added value of the secondary industry was 674,654.38+09 billion yuan, up 654.38+065.438+0.3%, down 2.4 percentage points; The added value of the tertiary industry was 5140 billion yuan, up 10.5% and down10.6 percentage points.

The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 16.3% year-on-year, down 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year. Growth in the second quarter 15.9%. By type, the added value of state-owned and state-holding enterprises increased by 12.7%, collective enterprises increased by 10.5%, joint-stock enterprises increased by 18.8%, and enterprises invested by Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 14.3%. Heavy industry growth 17.3%, light industry growth 13.8%. The connection between production and marketing was good, and the product sales rate was 97.7%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.

2. The increase in consumer prices declined.

In the first half of the year, the general level of consumer prices rose by 7.9%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in1-May. Among them, cities rose by 7.6% and rural areas by 8.6%. Regardless of classification, food prices rose by 20.4%, driving the overall price level to rise by 6.64 percentage points; House prices rose by 6.9%, driving the overall price level up by 1.02 percentage points; The prices of other commodities go up and down.

3. The employment target has been achieved well.

In the first half of the year, 6.4 million new jobs were created in cities and towns nationwide, achieving 64% of the annual target; 2.82 million laid-off workers were re-employed, achieving 56% of the annual target; 770,000 people with employment difficulties were employed, achieving 77% of the annual target. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 8065 yuan, up by 14.4% year-on-year, and the real increase was 6.3% after deducting the price factor. The per capita cash income of rural residents was 2528 yuan, an increase of 19.8%. After deducting the price factor, the actual increase was 65,438+00.3%.

4. The country's foreign exchange reserves increased

At the end of June 2008, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was180.88 billion US dollars, up 35.73% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, it increased by $280.6 billion, with an increase of $654.38+0.43 billion. At the end of June, the RMB exchange rate was 1 USD to 6.859 1 RMB, which was 6.099% higher than the end of last year, and the real effective exchange rate was 3.75% higher.

Second, the factors and structure

1. The investment structure of fixed assets improved, and urban and rural consumption increased simultaneously.

In the first half of the year, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 6,840.2 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage point faster than that of the same period last year. Among them, urban areas were 5,843.6 billion yuan, an increase of 26.8%; 996.6 billion yuan in rural areas, an increase of 23.2%. In urban investment, the investment in the three industries increased by 69.5%, 26.6% and 26.2% respectively, and the primary industry accelerated by 32 percentage points year-on-year; Investment in the central and western regions increased by 22.4%, 35.3% and 28.6% respectively, and the growth rate in the central and western regions was significantly faster than that in the east.

The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 5104.3 billion yuan, up 2 1.4% year-on-year, 6.0 percentage points faster than the same period of last year; After deducting the price factor, the actual growth was 13.9%. Among them, the urban area was 34.810.90 billion yuan, an increase of 2.21%,and the county and below/kloc-0 1.6224 billion yuan, an increase of 20.0%. The wholesale and retail industry was 4,306.8 billion yuan, and the accommodation and catering industry was 720.7 billion yuan, up by 2 1.3% and 24.0% respectively.

2. Export growth slowed down and foreign direct investment increased rapidly.

In the first half of the year, the total import and export volume was US$ 65.438+23.42 billion, up 25.7% year-on-year, and 2.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Among them, the export was US$ 666.6 billion, up by 2 1.9% and down by 5.7 percentage points; Imports reached US$ 567.6 billion, up by 30.6%, accelerating by 12.4 percentage points. The trade surplus was $99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of $654.38+03.2 billion. In the first half of the year, the actual amount of foreign capital used was US$ 52.4 billion, an increase of 45.6%, 33.4 percentage points faster than the same period of the previous year.

3. The growth rate of fiscal revenue has accelerated, and the growth rate of corporate profits and personal income has slowed down.

From June 5438 to May, the national fiscal revenue was 290.644 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, and the growth rate accelerated by 3.2 percentage points. The fastest growth is in tariffs and corporate income tax. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached109.44 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year, down 2 1.2 percentage points from the same period last year. The five most profitable industries are: oil and gas mining, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing, coal mining and washing.

In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 8065 yuan, up by 14.4% year-on-year, and the real increase was 6.3% after deducting the price factor. The per capita cash income of rural residents was 2528 yuan, an increase of 19.8%. After deducting the price factor, the actual increase was 65,438+00.3%.

4. The growth rate of money supply declined, and local and foreign currency deposits and loans reversed.

At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 44.3 1 trillion yuan, up 65.438+07.37% year-on-year, with an increase rate of 0.63 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and 0.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 15.48 trillion yuan, up by 14. 19% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 6.86 and 3.74 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year and last month respectively. Market currency in circulation (3.02 trillion yuan, up 12.28%. In the first half of the year, the net cash withdrawal was 654.38+09.4 billion yuan, an increase of 200 million yuan over the same period of last year.

At the end of June, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions was 45.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.84%. Among them, the balance of RMB deposits was 43.90 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.85%, 0.84 percentage points lower than the end of last month. The balance of foreign exchange deposits was $65.438+0638 billion, down 654.38+0.75% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, foreign exchange deposits increased by $3 billion, but decreased by $2.3 billion.

At the end of June, the balance of local and foreign currency loans of financial institutions was 30.5 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15. 17%. The balance of RMB loans was 28.62 trillion yuan, up 65,438+04.12% year-on-year, down 65,438+0.98 and 0.74 percentage points respectively from the end of last year and last month. The balance of foreign exchange loans was US$ 275.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.63%. In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 2,452.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.9 billion yuan. Foreign exchange loans increased by $55.3 billion, an increase of $38.8 billion year-on-year.

5. The volume of transactions in the inter-bank market expanded and interest rates rebounded slightly.

In June, RMB transactions in the interbank market totaled 83 1 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 410.53 billion yuan, up 55.9% year-on-year, with an increase of10.489 billion yuan.

In June, the monthly weighted average interest rate of interbank lending in the interbank market was 3.07%, 0.24 percentage points higher than last month and 0.68 percentage points higher than the same period last year; The monthly weighted average interest rate of pledged bond repurchase was 3.08%, up 0.20 percentage point from last month and up 0.6 1 percentage point from the same period last year. At the end of June, the excess reserve ratio of all financial institutions was 1.95%, 0.44 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 1.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

6. Global stock markets generally fell, among which A shares fell the most in the world.

Affected by the global economic downturn and high oil prices, global stock markets generally fell, and US stocks hit a two-year low. A shares are in a downward relay. In the second quarter, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2746 points, with a single quarter decline of 20%. Since Vietnam's stock market rebounded by 30%, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded its biggest decline since 6000 points.

The fundamental factors affecting the decline of A-shares are mainly concerns about the domestic economic downturn and the continuous rise of CPI, which is increasingly linked with the international capital market. Domestic institutions are still bearish on A-shares, and the pressure of fund redemption has increased greatly, which further puts pressure on the trend of A-shares.

Third, the policy effect.

1, judging the overall economic situation

This year has been eventful. After the snowstorm in the south, an earthquake of magnitude 8 occurred in Sichuan. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has been full of twists and turns, the international financial turmoil has intensified, global inflation has risen and growth has slowed down. In this case, China's economic operation is basically stable. In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 10.4%, and CPI increased by 7.9%, showing a downward trend of economic growth and high inflation, which was roughly in line with people's predictions.

The slowdown in economic growth indicates that China's economic operation has entered the downward range of this round of growth cycle. However, it is still at a high level and there is still room for decline. There are many reasons why people pay too much attention to the decline of growth. First, if the decline is too large, many contradictions and problems may not be covered up and delayed; Second, the championship of official promotion may also affect the legitimacy and prestige of the government; Third, employment difficulties may increase and social stability will be threatened.

In fact, what really deserves people's attention is the further accumulation of economic operation risks. This can also be seen from the changes in some structural factors. First, the rapid growth of imports and the sharp decline of export growth rate, although in line with the needs and direction of economic adjustment, have increased the pressure of imported inflation. Second, the operation direction of monetary policy and exchange rate policy is good, but it is difficult to reach the designated position for a while, and the situation of excess liquidity remains, or even intensifies. Third, the growth of corporate profits has declined, and the growth of personal income has slowed down. However, the excessive growth of government income, coupled with the distortion of relative prices, may further decline under the condition of high inflation, which is not conducive to structural adjustment.

The impact of the earthquake needs to be analyzed in detail. Economically, the earthquake has caused huge losses to people's lives and property, estimated at about one trillion yuan, some of which can't even be compensated, but the loss is the stock assets. The process of disaster relief and post-disaster reconstruction has caused and increased new social needs and promoted the growth of traffic volume. In social life, earthquakes are also a combination of danger and opportunity. Handling and grasping it well is conducive to promoting social integration. Otherwise it may be another tuition fee.

2. Pay attention to global inflation and international financial turmoil.

Since the beginning of this year, the international economic situation has been complicated and changeable. The basic trend is that economic growth slows down and inflation accelerates. Economic growth in the euro zone reached 0.8% in the first quarter and will further shrink in the second quarter. The CPI has reached 3.7%, and may exceed 4% this summer, which is twice the inflation control target of the European Central Bank. The inflation rate in Britain is close to 4% and may reach 5% later. The economic growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was 0.6%, and it is expected to be 1- 1.6% for the whole year. In June, the consumer price index rose by 1. 1%, the largest increase since September 2005 and the second largest increase in 26 years. It is estimated that the annual inflation rate will reach 3.8%-4.2. The economic growth rate of many emerging economies has declined to varying degrees, while the inflation rates in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia have all reached double digits, and the inflation rate in Vietnam has exceeded 25%, forming a global inflation trend.

Many people attribute the rise in inflation to the rise in the prices of commodities such as oil and food, which makes sense. In the past four years, the international oil price has risen at the rate of $65,438+$00-$20 per barrel per year. Since last July, the average price of a basket of crude oil under the market supervision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has doubled, from $70 to 140. It has risen even faster this year, with an increase of nearly $50 in the first six months, an increase of more than 40%. In the past three years, international food prices have risen by 18 1%, food prices have risen by 83%, and international rice prices have soared by 75% in March and April. However, inflation is ultimately a monetary phenomenon. The main reason for global inflation is that the international monetary policy environment is too loose, especially the excessively loose monetary policy implemented by the United States in response to the subprime mortgage crisis and the long-term low interest rate policy implemented by the Bank of Japan. As for some emerging economies, because their currencies are linked to the US dollar in different ways, it is impossible to tighten monetary policy when the US implements loose monetary policy and the US dollar depreciates. In fact, it is equivalent to the Fed exporting loose monetary policy and inflation. This is the reality of the current international economic operation, not anyone's conspiracy. Because the current world order is dominated and prevalent by powerful forces, and all countries put their own interests first, and their actions and policy choices are for the maximization of their own interests.

Closely related to global inflation, the intensification of international financial turmoil also deserves special attention. Recently, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major mortgage lending institutions in the United States, have experienced business crises. Within a week, the share prices of the two companies fell by 50%, and the total market value evaporated by $46 billion in half a year. As a result, the three major stock indexes in new york fell across the board, and a "financial tsunami" occurred in the global market. At the same time, Indymac Bank in the United States closed down due to a large number of bad debts in credit assets, including subprime loans, resulting in losses, liquidity difficulties and bank runs, making it the second largest bank failure in American history. Therefore, the subprime mortgage crisis is far from over and has once again become a topic of discussion.

Since the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in September last year, financial institutions related to subprime loans went bankrupt one after another, and the Federal Reserve entered the interest rate cut cycle, and the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis was wave after wave. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, well-known financial institutions such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS reported losses one after another and expanded their loss provisions to seek financing from outside. Market liquidity pressure has increased sharply. At the same time, the Federal Reserve joined hands with the European Central Bank to intervene. Some people predict that the subprime mortgage has bottomed out. In March this year, Bear Stearns, the fifth largest investment bank in the United States, was on the verge of bankruptcy, forcing the Federal Reserve to inject capital urgently and cut interest rates by 75 basis points. In April, the financial market turmoil that lasted for several months showed some signs of easing, and some people predicted that the worst period of the subprime mortgage crisis had passed. This time, people have re-recognized the subprime mortgage crisis and its impact. Because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a central role in the American housing finance system and bear the financing or credit guarantee of American ordinary housing 12 trillion US dollars, their bankruptcy may be disastrous. Compared with this, the financial turmoil caused by the subprime mortgage crisis is just a drop in the ocean. Therefore, it is impossible for the US government to avoid bankruptcy. It is noteworthy that China's holding of US Treasury bonds has reached US$ 506.5 billion, second only to Japan (US$ 578.7 billion), and it is the largest creditor of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, so losses are inevitable. Even if the US government provides assistance by issuing more national debt, it will only reduce some losses.

3. Currency, exchange rate and short-term capital flows

Since the beginning of this year, in the face of rising inflation, the central bank has adopted a tight monetary policy, raising the deposit reserve ratio by 2.5 percentage points four times, recovering liquidity of over 654.38+0.3 trillion yuan, and strengthening loan control on a quarterly basis. It should be affirmed that the tight policy direction is correct and should be adhered to, and cannot be changed because of the high inflation rate. But the specific operation can still be discussed. The quantity control is rigid and there is no room for manoeuvre. The shortage of funds for small and medium-sized enterprises is proof. It is better to relax the quantity control appropriately and use interest rate adjustment to give those capable enterprises a choice.

The reason why the central bank prefers quantitative means to price means is that the use of interest rate adjustment will stimulate the inflow of hot money when the spread between China and the United States is upside down and the pressure of appreciation is unresolved. In particular, it was recently estimated that the inflow of hot money reached 1.75 trillion US dollars, which further increased the central bank's concern. In fact, the concept of hot money itself is not clear, so it is better to use short-term capital flow, and its quantity is also a problem that is difficult to estimate accurately. The above estimate is obviously unreasonable. We have pointed out that the incentive of short-term capital inflow arbitrage mainly comes from the expectation of exchange rate appreciation, and the spread is not the main problem, because short-term capital can't stay in the bank for that long. The main problem is the relative price distortion and the reverse transfer of wealth caused by negative real interest rate and excessive deposit-loan spread. The best proof is that the profits of listed banks soared in the first half of this year, and the growth rates of CITIC, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Minsheng and China Merchants exceeded 100%, of which CITIC and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank were 150% and 140% respectively. All listed banks expect profits to increase by 70% in the first half of this year and 50% for the whole year. We should know that policy operation and market adjustment are both a trial and error process. There is no best policy, only the right one. Therefore, policy adjustment is also to take the lesser of the two evils and the heavier of the two benefits. You can't just seek safety without making progress. Otherwise, you can only be beaten passively and led by others, and your mistakes and risks may be even greater.

In the first half of this year, the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar appreciated by 6. 1%. Since July 2, 2005, the cumulative appreciation has been close to 20%, but it has fallen against the euro instead of rising. Some people think that the appreciation has reached its peak, the appreciation speed is too fast, and the appreciation can't curb inflation. In fact, short-term capital inflows are accelerating, and the pressure of appreciation remains unchanged, indicating that appreciation is not in place. There are many reasons for inflation, and controlling inflation requires the cooperation of various policies. Neither the responsibility of curbing inflation can be entirely attributed to monetary policy, nor can the goal of appreciation be aimed at controlling inflation. The appreciation of exchange rate is mainly to adjust the relative price relationship between inside and outside and solve the imbalance between inside and outside the economy. Not only that, the relationship between exchange rate appreciation and inflation is also very complicated, with both complementary and alternative aspects. Exchange rate appreciation reduces relative price distortion and external demand, which is conducive to curbing inflation. However, before the adjustment is in place, short-term capital inflows caused by appreciation expectations and appreciation pressures will also promote inflation. The different trends of CPI and PPI, the return of savings deposits, the mutual fluctuation of general market prices and asset prices, and the reverse movement of local and foreign currency deposits and loans are all related to this.

The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will inevitably increase imports and curb exports. The fact that export growth slowed down this year and import growth accelerated also illustrates this point. Some export enterprises have encountered difficulties and even closed down, and some export industries such as textiles and export-oriented economies such as the Pearl River Delta have also been significantly affected. This is the purpose of exchange rate adjustment, and also the cost or opportunity cost of adjustment. It should be noted that no policy is a free lunch. After adjustment, the exchange rate tends to be reasonable, the internal and external imbalances are alleviated, and the domestic resource allocation and economic structure are improved. Unemployed workers will be re-employed and the economy will resume growth, although there will be a process and time lag. It should be pointed out that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate makes some export enterprises encounter difficulties, which is a good time for adjustment. If there are no difficulties, who will adjust the production and export, increase profits and make life easy? In fact, the real adjustment is largely forced out. The enterprises in trouble are all enterprises with low technical level, shallow processing degree and small added value, and these enterprises also need to quit. If these enterprises don't quit and transform and upgrade, new enterprises can't get in. Only when low-level and low-tech enterprises withdraw or transform and upgrade, and new high-level and high-tech enterprises enter, can we improve the technical level, promote industrial development and improve the export structure, and China can move from a big trading country to a powerful trading country. This is the proper meaning of exchange rate appreciation.

In the case of insufficient independence of monetary policy and limited operating space, exchange rate policy has become the main adjustment means. In the recent exchange rate policy operation, the central bank changed the operation mode of one liter and one depreciation, and began to appreciate the dollar, euro and yen at the same time. This is an improvement. Practice has proved that under the current circumstances, there is not much risk in doing so, but it expands the operating space of exchange rate policy. As for the adverse impact of exchange rate appreciation on export enterprises, other policy means can be used to balance and alleviate it. This is the case with the recent measures to increase the export tax rebate for the textile industry.

With the instability of the international financial system and the intensification of international financial turmoil, the massive inflow of short-term capital has caused the accumulation of risks, and the reversal of capital flow will be the coming of crisis. The recent situation in Vietnam is proof. Therefore, the central bank should not only control inflation and maintain monetary stability, but also pay attention to capital flow and maintain financial stability. Judging from the current situation in China, the foreign exchange reserves are10.8 trillion US dollars. Although the economic growth rate has declined, it still maintains the growth rate of 10.4%. It seems that this situation will not happen. However, the reversal of capital flow may happen overnight, and its impact on the economy is enormous, even catastrophic, and the current situation in China is unprecedented in history. Therefore, we must be highly vigilant about this. On the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of capital flows and further promote the reform of the exchange rate system. On the other hand, it is necessary to make a predictable study on the trend and situation of capital flow and make full preparations in advance. In this way, when the event comes, you can take the initiative to attack, advance and retreat freely, and respond freely.

4. Combine controlling inflation with adjusting relative prices.

In the economic analysis report of last quarter, we clearly pointed out that China has entered a period of moderate inflation, which is not a short period of one or two years, but may be a medium period. Even if consumer prices fall in the second half of the year, the inflation rate will not fall below 6% this year, and it will not be lower next year. The consumer price cannot be controlled below 5%. Rising international commodity prices, excess liquidity, and low prices of resource factors need to be adjusted, all of which are important factors to promote price increases. Apart from other factors, as far as food is concerned, the problem is very clear. Although this year's summer grain harvest is expected to be 240 billion Jin, and the annual grain output is 1024 10000 Jin, in the context of international food price inflation and food crisis, domestic food prices seem calm, but in fact they have entered an upward channel. It is understood that the market price of wheat in Shandong, Hebei and other places has reached more than 0.82 yuan/kg. Although it is lower than the international market price in May (close to 1 yuan/kg), it is far higher than the minimum purchase price of three-grade white wheat stipulated by the state in 2008 (0.77 yuan/kg). Coupled with the pressure of rising agricultural prices, food prices are inevitable. Otherwise, not only the current purchase price is unattractive to farmers, but also the grain splashing incident will not stop the smuggling and export of grain. Therefore, instead of controlling the inflation rate below 5% at all costs by controlling prices and distorting relative prices, it is better to face the reality, maintain rapid economic growth while stabilizing inflation expectations, make a discretionary decision, promote the price reform of resource factors, and correct the artificial distortion of relative price relations.

Faced with rising inflation, people pay more attention to the overall price level and inflation, while ignoring the relationship between relative price and price comparison. This is not difficult to prove from the public opinion of the news media. The government regards controlling inflation as the first goal of macroeconomic policy, which is its concentrated expression. Moreover, in order to control inflation, the government has even taken measures to control prices and distort relative prices, such as expanding negative real interest rates, keeping resource factors low, and making inappropriate price subsidies. One of the important foundations is a traditional misconception that inflation will distort income distribution and cause wealth transfer. In fact, inflation is an increase in the overall price level. Although it does great harm to the low-income class, it is the relative price distortion, not the change of the overall price level, that distorts income distribution and causes wealth transfer.

If it is difficult to adjust the relative price when the inflation rate is high, the problem of restraining inflation by distorting the relative price may be even greater. Therefore, it may be more appropriate to combine curbing inflation with adjusting relative prices. The price adjustment of refined oil on June 20 is an example. If the price of refined oil is not adjusted, the consumption and waste of refined oil will increase, financial subsidies and social injustice will continue to expand, the tight supply situation will intensify, and oil prices will further rise. Raising the price of refined oil may increase the consumer price slightly this year, but it will curb inflation in the future. China raised the price of refined oil, as evidenced by the reaction of international oil prices to the callback. Therefore, for monetary policy and exchange rate policy, the price increase of refined oil is a long-term positive. At present, the price of gasoline in the United States is $4, Japan is 188 yen, and Hong Kong is 16 Hong Kong dollars. However, after the domestic price increase, it is much higher in 6 yuan. If we can adjust the price several times, keep in line with the international oil price, and then liberalize the oil price, we can completely put an end to all kinds of absurd events in oil price control, reduce the risk of economic operation and improve China's energy security. So with this experience, we should continue to do it after the Olympic Games. The oil price is the same, so are other prices.

Although the price increase of refined oil is the right choice, some price control and subsidy measures taken at the same time are debatable. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the price of gasoline and diesel by 65,438 yuan per ton, the price of aviation kerosene by 65,438 yuan per ton, and the electricity price by 2.5 cents per kWh. At the same time, it is announced that the prices of railway passenger transport, urban public transport, rural road passenger transport, taxis, liquefied gas and natural gas, which are closely related to residents' lives, will not be raised, and the prices of electricity consumption, agriculture and fertilizer production for urban and rural residents will not be adjusted. In addition, some price subsidies have been implemented. It is not difficult to see from these situations. First, the policy goal of price adjustment is to focus on the fact that this price increase cannot affect consumer prices. This is not so much about people's livelihood as about the face of the government. In this way, the effect of price adjustment is greatly weakened. For example, if the minimum living standard is low, it must be improved in time; Since the prices closely related to residents' consumption cannot be raised, why should we raise the minimum living standard? For example, the taxi rental price cannot be raised, and the increase in oil price is a government subsidy. Subsidize who? It will not be the low-income groups who are often beaten. Second, it further distorts the relative price relationship. For example, the price of natural gas is lower than that of petroleum products, and now it is even lower. For another example, coal-electricity linkage has been going on for many years, and it is difficult to promote it. This time, the government simply canceled it. Third, the government's price control has been greatly strengthened, so that it has penetrated into many specific industries and products. This is even more worrying. It can be seen that controlling inflation by strengthening price control and distorting the relative price relationship may be counterproductive.

Fourth, the system analysis

1, on the incentive and salary of state-owned enterprise executives

In the 1 quarterly report, we discussed the reform of state-owned enterprises, and put forward the proposal of collecting rent first and then distributing profits, and collecting rent and reducing taxes in parallel. Here, we will make some supplements according to the new situation.

In the process of state-owned enterprise reform, the incentive and salary of enterprise executives always occupy an important position. SASAC and related departments have formulated a series of regulations and started to implement equity incentives. At the beginning, the high salary and equity incentives of overseas executives were just painting cakes to satisfy their hunger. Nominally, like foreign executives, they actually get domestic wages. The Liu Jinbao case involves such a problem. However, as long as there are such regulations, enterprises and their top managers will do everything possible to transform them from nominal regulations into practical benefits through spontaneous institutional innovation. As a result, in addition to on-the-job consumption, the salary of state-owned enterprise executives is also like a runaway horse. According to the data, in 2002, the gap between the actual average salary of the main leaders of central state-owned enterprises and the average salary of employees was 12 times, and in 2003 it was expanded to 13.5 times. Not long ago, Zheng Gongcheng, a member of the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), said that the gap between the annual income of senior executives and the income of employees in central enterprises is as high as several million yuan. According to the 2006 Provincial Survey Report issued by Guangdong Provincial Survey Research Center, some business operators set their own salaries. China Mobile launched the equity incentive plan on 1997, and the incentive scope expanded from the initial directors and senior executives of the head office to the senior executives and other employees of the branches. Over the years, the management of this company * * subscribed for 353.95 million shares with HK$1006714 million. According to the market price at the time of exercise, the relevant income was as high as 165438+.

In view of this situation, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) recently issued the Supplementary Notice on Regulating the Implementation of Equity Incentives in State-owned Listed Companies (Draft for Comment), and set an upper limit for this purpose, stipulating that the income of incentive objects should account for the total salary level when stock options are granted in this period, and domestic listed companies and overseas H-share companies should not exceed 40%, and overseas red-chip companies should not exceed 50%. Stock options exceeding the above provisions will not be exercised. At the same time, CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection also issued "Notes on Several Issues Concerning Leaders of State-owned Enterprises Violating the" Seven Requirements "of Integrity and Self-discipline", which is applicable to the "Regulations on Disciplinary Actions of China Production Party", and the bosses of state-owned enterprises who set their own salaries in violation of regulations should be given disciplinary sanctions. In fact, the capping of stock options is as uncontrollable as the capping of bonuses in that year, and disciplinary action can't solve such problems. First of all, in the case that the relative price is distorted and the rent of resource elements becomes the profit of enterprises, any incentive arrangement for enterprise executives lacks foundation and basis. Secondly, the corporate governance structure is not perfect, and the incentive scheme based on internal directors is unreasonable. Therefore, instead of making a fuss about the specific methods and control of incentive arrangements, it is better to work hard on the reform of the basic system.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) trend prediction

In the third quarter, global inflation and financial turmoil will continue, and domestic policies will not change much. The Olympic Games is the most important event, which not only promotes but also affects the current economic operation. According to the previous analysis, the specific forecast is as follows

one quarter

Economic indicators for the whole year of 2007 (actual) First half of 2007 (actual) First half of 2008 (actual) Third quarter of 2008 (forecast)

Growth rate (%) Growth rate (%) Growth rate (%) Growth rate (%)

GDP 1 1.4 1 1.5 10.4 9.8

Industrial added value18.518.516.316.0

Investment in fixed assets 24.8 25.9 26.3 25.0

Retail sales of consumer goods16.815.421.422.0

Exit 25.7 27.6 2 1.9 20.5

Import 20.8 18.2 30.6 28.0

Consumer price 4.8 3.2 7.9 7.5

Note: 1. The growth rate of GDP and industrial added value is calculated at comparable prices, and other indicators are calculated at current prices;

2. Investment in fixed assets refers to the investment in fixed assets of the whole society;

3. Industrial added value refers to the added value of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises whose product sales income is more than 5 million yuan.