In the Galactic Empire series of science fiction novels, mathematician hari seldon created "psychohistory", and he can accurately predict the future of mankind by using mathematical formulas. Isaac asimov, the author, is praised as a "God-like man" by readers all over the world for his rich imagination. Nowadays, the bridge to predict the future in the novel has been realized to a certain extent, but not by "psychohistory" but by "big data".

Big data is a hot word in recent years, but its methodology is nothing more than traditional statistics from the root. Only in the galactic empire series of science fiction novels, mathematician hari seldon created "psychohistory", and he can accurately predict the future of mankind with mathematical formulas. Isaac asimov, the author, is praised as a "God-like man" by readers all over the world for his rich imagination. Nowadays, the bridge to predict the future in the novel has been realized to a certain extent, but not by "psychohistory" but by "big data".

Big data is a hot word in recent years, but its methodology is nothing more than traditional statistics from the root. Only with the digitization of human information, more and more data, coupled with the gradual improvement of storage and computing capabilities, the integration of statistics and huge data has had a subversive effect on many industries.

He Fan, deputy director of the Institute of Economics and Politics of China Academy of Social Sciences, is an advocate of big data. He believes that big data can achieve many unheard-of things. For example, the Academy of Social Sciences can predict a person's divorce probability within five years through his credit card consumption records.

However, He Fan did not agree with Asimov. He believes that future changes are unpredictable. In the era of big data, what can really be predicted is individual behavior. "Computers know themselves better than we do and can predict what decisions everyone will make in the future. This is why the business community is so fascinated by big data. Accurately predicting consumer behavior will bring new development opportunities. "

Nowadays, big data has been applied in hot fields such as finance, technology and retail, but according to He Fan, in fact, many traditional industries that seem to be marginalized by big data accepted the challenges and changes of big data earlier.

Tasting the world: predicting the best wine in this century

Wine tasting is one of the earliest industries affected by big data.

Traditional wine tasting is done by professional wine tasting masters, who are usually gifted, have extraordinary sense of smell and taste, and are well trained the day after tomorrow. But this monopoly was later broken by an English professor at Princeton University. The professor tried to use statistical analysis instead of traditional physical tasting methods. He collected various data such as rainfall, average temperature, soil composition and so on, and explored the relationship according to the wine quality over the years. In this way, he successfully predicted the best wine of this century.

"This is big data thinking. Nowadays, traditional sommeliers dare not judge the quality of wine easily. They must first look at the predictions of big data and then draw conclusions. " He Fan said.

Sports: Selecting Potential Sports Stars

Not only wine selection, but also the decision of selecting people is influenced by big data.

The movie Money Ball truly reflects the challenge of big data to the inherent rules of athlete selection. In the movie, billy beane developed a set of "Baseball Statistics" to analyze dozens of data such as players' defense rate, winning rate, batting rate, long batting rate, home run and batting points, so as to predict players' potential. Compared with players' inherent subjective judgment based on experience, the method of data statistics is more accurate and reliable, thus breaking the routine and finding potential baseball stars.

In the real sports world, big data has been applied in various sports. At the end of 20 13, NBA began to install somatosensory tracking technology in all stadiums to record and track the movements of basketball and players. This system will provide continuous data stream and comprehensive statistical data, including speed, distance, interval between players and ball control, so as to achieve more targeted analysis.

In the face of big data, almost every player faces the situation that his own advantages and limitations are exposed. For example, by counting the ratio of Yao Ming's mistakes in catching and dribbling at the basket, we know that Yao Mingcan usually dribbles three times when he catches the ball with his right hand, but only twice when he catches the ball with his left hand. This law tells the defender that if he wants to remove Yao Ming's threat to the basket, he should be confined to the area far away from the basket, so that he must dribble for more than three times before coming to the basket, which often leads to mistakes.

Gambling industry: far from the bottom line that customers can't afford losses

In many high-end casinos, customers need to apply for an electronic magnetic card when entering the door. When registering basic information such as gender, age, nationality and occupation, it began to be monitored by big data. According to the customer's data information, the system will immediately match it with the samples in the database, and infer the customer's maximum consumption capacity, consumption time limit and other behavioral characteristics.

"Everyone, no matter how rich, has pain points. When you lose more than a certain amount of money, you will probably never set foot in this casino again. Big data brings the best choice to traditional casinos-by predicting the pain points of customers, let them stop before this. "

He Fan, for example, said that if a 35-year-old male local tyrant walks into a casino in China, big data will predict that his pain point is about 1000 USD. Through CCTV and desk monitoring, when he loses $9,800, a beautiful young public relations manager will take the initiative to talk to him, ease his mood and guide him to spend his money on catering, leisure and other aspects. And retaining customers' last patience and hope will also promote their consumption again.

In He Fan's view, when consumers enjoy accurate services, they are already under the monitoring of big data. Big data can not only help businesses squeeze out the last penny that consumers can spend now, but also retain the possibility of squeezing again.

Medicine: prevention before diseases occur.

The application of big data thinking in the medical field has a long history. Before the bacteria was discovered, a doctor realized that if he came back from the morgue for delivery, the mortality rate would be high. He concluded that there was some connection between them, so he suggested that everyone wash their hands with soap before operation. Although no one understood the reason why hand washing was related to the decline in mortality at that time, people found the connection through information.

"Knowing what it is, not knowing why, this is the law of big data," He Fan said. "The medical consultant of the American drama" Dr. House "is a representative figure of administrative medicine. Compared with the traditional pathological consultation method, administrative medicine emphasizes the disease, not the cause, which is to speak with big data. "

In the European and American medical circles, the thinking of big data has been well continued. Mayo Clinic, established in 1863, relies not only on the skills and experience of doctors, but also on the big data of clinical statistics and practical experience accumulated by the hospital in 150.

According to reports, if you print out the diseases that may be caused by a single headache symptom in the Mayo database with the number 5, you can cover a room of more than 400 square meters, and basically you will not miss any possible diseases. This can not only help doctors to judge the current health status of patients, but also predict the occurrence trend of potential diseases, so as to put forward targeted health care programs.

Film and television circle: the content is decided by the audience.

From what the director wants to shoot to what the audience wants to see, the film and television industry is constantly improving the status of the audience in order to obtain higher market returns. At this time, big data has become an excellent way to judge the interest of the audience. For example, the audience of children who like it is the most difficult to ponder, and the traditional mode of communication is completely impossible. Producers can only create by experience and speculation, but the emergence of big data makes it possible for children to understand their psychological activities.

"The earliest children's program made with big data in the United States was Sesame Street. Every time the producer makes a new animation clip, a large number of children will try it, and some cartoon patterns will appear randomly next to the screen. Although it is impossible to communicate with young children, when children are always distracted to look at the cartoon patterns beside the screen, the producer thinks that this cartoon-like child does not understand or attract people. Then the producer counted these data, and after analysis and comparison, the film was modified. " He Fan said that this is the impact of the most basic big data on film and television production.

In addition, the popular Teletubbies in recent years have also benefited from the application of big data. Although in the eyes of adults, repeating every sentence and every action three times is almost a kind of mental retardation, it is this cartoon that makes children all over the world stick to it. Through the study of big data, it is found that repetition is the main cognitive law of learning and entertainment in children's psychological world, and three times is just right. Teletubbies boldly used this conclusion, thus successfully creating a children's cartoon that broke the convention.

There are more traditional industries that have been subverted invisibly by big data. For these non-mainstream areas of big data applications, the impact may be stronger, forcing practitioners to carry out industrial transformation and innovation. Of course, this also leads to the risk of unemployment for some practitioners who cannot accept statistical logic and thinking.

On the other hand, He Fan believes that while the industry is enjoying the big data revolution, consumers' privacy is becoming nowhere to hide. The source of big data is ordinary consumers, such as shopping records, travel records, investment records and even physiological records. Everyone's life is being digitized and monitored by some people.

"The more industries are changed by big data, the more privacy people have to give up, which is one of the crises that big data will face in the future." He Fan said.

He Fan, deputy director of the Institute of Economics and Politics of China Academy of Social Sciences, is an advocate of big data. He believes that big data can achieve many unheard-of things. For example, the Academy of Social Sciences can predict a person's divorce probability within five years through his credit card consumption records.

However, He Fan did not agree with Asimov. He believes that future changes are unpredictable. In the era of big data, what can really be predicted is individual behavior. "Computers know themselves better than we do and can predict what decisions everyone will make in the future. This is why the business community is so fascinated by big data. Accurately predicting consumer behavior will bring new development opportunities. "

Nowadays, big data has been applied in hot fields such as finance, technology and retail, but according to He Fan, in fact, many traditional industries that seem to be marginalized by big data accepted the challenges and changes of big data earlier.

Tasting the world: predicting the best wine in this century

Wine tasting is one of the earliest industries affected by big data.

Traditional wine tasting is done by professional wine tasting masters, who are usually gifted, have extraordinary sense of smell and taste, and are well trained the day after tomorrow. But this monopoly was later broken by an English professor at Princeton University. The professor tried to use statistical analysis instead of traditional physical tasting methods. He collected various data such as rainfall, average temperature, soil composition and so on, and explored the relationship according to the wine quality over the years. In this way, he successfully predicted the best wine of this century.

"This is big data thinking. Nowadays, traditional sommeliers dare not judge the quality of wine easily. They must first look at the predictions of big data and then draw conclusions. " He Fan said.

Sports: Selecting Potential Sports Stars

Not only wine selection, but also the decision of selecting people is influenced by big data.

The movie Money Ball truly reflects the challenge of big data to the inherent rules of athlete selection. In the movie, billy beane developed a set of "Baseball Statistics" to analyze dozens of data such as players' defense rate, winning rate, batting rate, long batting rate, home run and batting points, so as to predict players' potential. Compared with players' inherent subjective judgment based on experience, the method of data statistics is more accurate and reliable, thus breaking the routine and finding potential baseball stars.

In the real sports world, big data has been applied in various sports. At the end of 20 13, NBA began to install somatosensory tracking technology in all stadiums to record and track the movements of basketball and players. This system will provide continuous data stream and comprehensive statistical data, including speed, distance, interval between players and ball control, so as to achieve more targeted analysis.

In the face of big data, almost every player faces the situation that his own advantages and limitations are exposed. For example, by counting the ratio of Yao Ming's mistakes in catching and dribbling at the basket, we know that Yao Mingcan usually dribbles three times when he catches the ball with his right hand, but only twice when he catches the ball with his left hand. This law tells the defender that if he wants to remove Yao Ming's threat to the basket, he should be confined to the area far away from the basket, so that he must dribble for more than three times before coming to the basket, which often leads to mistakes.

Gambling industry: far from the bottom line that customers can't afford losses

In many high-end casinos, customers need to apply for an electronic magnetic card when entering the door. When registering basic information such as gender, age, nationality and occupation, it began to be monitored by big data. According to the customer's data information, the system will immediately match it with the samples in the database, and infer the customer's maximum consumption capacity, consumption time limit and other behavioral characteristics.

"Everyone, no matter how rich, has pain points. When you lose more than a certain amount of money, you will probably never set foot in this casino again. Big data brings the best choice to traditional casinos-by predicting the pain points of customers, let them stop before this. "

He Fan, for example, said that if a 35-year-old male local tyrant walks into a casino in China, big data will predict that his pain point is about 1000 USD. Through CCTV and desk monitoring, when he loses $9,800, a beautiful young public relations manager will take the initiative to talk to him, ease his mood and guide him to spend his money on catering, leisure and other aspects. And retaining customers' last patience and hope will also promote their consumption again.

In He Fan's view, when consumers enjoy accurate services, they are already under the monitoring of big data. Big data can not only help businesses squeeze out the last penny that consumers can spend now, but also retain the possibility of squeezing again.

Medicine: prevention before diseases occur.

The application of big data thinking in the medical field has a long history. Before the bacteria was discovered, a doctor realized that if he came back from the morgue for delivery, the mortality rate would be high. He concluded that there was some connection between them, so he suggested that everyone wash their hands with soap before operation. Although no one understood the reason why hand washing was related to the decline in mortality at that time, people found the connection through information.

"Knowing what it is, not knowing why, this is the law of big data," He Fan said. "The medical consultant of the American drama" Dr. House "is a representative figure of administrative medicine. Compared with the traditional pathological consultation method, administrative medicine emphasizes the disease, not the cause, which is to speak with big data. "

In the European and American medical circles, the thinking of big data has been well continued. Mayo Clinic, established in 1863, relies not only on the skills and experience of doctors, but also on the big data of clinical statistics and practical experience accumulated by the hospital in 150.

According to reports, if you print out the diseases that may be caused by a single headache symptom in the Mayo database with the number 5, you can cover a room of more than 400 square meters, and basically you will not miss any possible diseases. This can not only help doctors to judge the current health status of patients, but also predict the occurrence trend of potential diseases, so as to put forward targeted health care programs.

Film and television circle: the content is decided by the audience.

From what the director wants to shoot to what the audience wants to see, the film and television industry is constantly improving the status of the audience in order to obtain higher market returns. At this time, big data has become an excellent way to judge the interest of the audience. For example, the audience of children who like it is the most difficult to ponder, and the traditional mode of communication is completely impossible. Producers can only create by experience and speculation, but the emergence of big data makes it possible for children to understand their psychological activities.

"The earliest children's program made with big data in the United States was Sesame Street. Every time the producer makes a new animation clip, a large number of children will try it, and some cartoon patterns will appear randomly next to the screen. Although it is impossible to communicate with young children, when children are always distracted to look at the cartoon patterns beside the screen, the producer thinks that this cartoon-like child does not understand or attract people. Then the producer counted these data, and after analysis and comparison, the film was modified. " He Fan said that this is the impact of the most basic big data on film and television production.

In addition, the popular Teletubbies in recent years have also benefited from the application of big data. Although in the eyes of adults, repeating every sentence and every action three times is almost a kind of mental retardation, it is this cartoon that makes children all over the world stick to it. Through the study of big data, it is found that repetition is the main cognitive law of learning and entertainment in children's psychological world, and three times is just right. Teletubbies boldly used this conclusion, thus successfully creating a children's cartoon that broke the convention.

There are more traditional industries that are being subverted invisibly by big data. For these non-mainstream areas of big data applications, the impact may be even greater, forcing practitioners to carry out industrial transformation and innovation. Of course, this also leads to the risk of unemployment for some practitioners who cannot accept statistical logic and thinking.

On the other hand, He Fan believes that while the industry is enjoying the big data revolution, consumers' privacy is becoming nowhere to hide. The source of big data is ordinary consumers, such as shopping records, travel records, investment records and even physiological records. Everyone's life is being digitized and monitored by some people.

"The more industries are changed by big data, the more privacy people have to give up, which is one of the crises that big data will face in the future." He Fan said.