blue chip stock
Blue chip refers to a stable cash dividend policy, which requires higher cash flow management of the company. Usually, those companies with good business performance and stable and high cash dividend payment are called "blue chips". Blue-chip stocks refer to large, traditional industrial stocks and financial stocks that grow steadily for a long time. The term "blue chip" comes from western casinos. In western casinos, there are three colors of chips, of which blue chips are the most valuable.
1 Introduction
In the stock market, investors refer to the shares of large companies that occupy an important leading position in their respective industries, with excellent performance, active trading and rich dividends as blue chips.
Blue-chip stocks are well-managed, profitable and return to shareholders every year. Such companies have the ability to profit from the prosperity and depression of the industry with less risk.
Although the history of Chinese mainland stock market is not long, it has developed very rapidly, and some blue-chip stocks have also appeared.
The word "blue chip" comes from western casinos. In western casinos, there are three colors of chips, among which blue chips are the most valuable, followed by red chips and white chips are the worst. Investors apply these jargon to stocks.
2 attributes
Excellent performance, stable income, large share capital, rich dividends, stable stock price trend and good market image.
(1) During the depression, the company can make plans and measures to ensure the company's development;
(2) In the prosperous period, the company can exert its greatest ability to create profits;
(3) During the period of inflation, the actual surplus capacity of the company remains unchanged or increases.
Blue-chip stocks are not static. With the change of the company's operating conditions and the rise and fall of its economic status, the ranking of blue chips will also change. According to the statistics of the famous American Forbes magazine, among the largest companies in 19 17 (fourth year) 100, only 43 companies were still among the blue chips by 20 10, and as the "bluest" and most prosperous railway stocks in the industry, they were completely. Blue-chip stocks have a large weight in the market.
3 classification
There are many blue chips, which are divided into: first-line blue chips, second-line blue chips, excellent blue chips and large-cap blue chips; There are also blue chip funds.
First-line blue chip
There is no clear distinction between the first and second lines. Some people think that the first-line blue-chip stocks are second-line in the eyes of others. Generally speaking, the recognized first-line blue chips refer to stocks with stable performance, large liquidity and large total share capital, that is, stocks with greater weight. Generally speaking, the price of such stocks is not too high, but the mass base is good. This kind of stock can play the role of "four or two", which will affect the whole body. These stocks mainly include: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petrochemical, Kweichow Moutai, Minsheng Bank, Vanke, Shenzhen Development Bank, Wuliangye, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Poly Real Estate, Shandong Gold and Daqin Railway.
Second-tier blue chip
Generally speaking, the second-tier blue chips in the A-share market are slightly inferior to the first-tier blue chips mentioned above in terms of market value, industry status and popularity, which is relative to several first-tier blue chips. For example, Conch, yantai wanhua, Sany Heavy Industry, Gezhouba, Guanghui, Zoomlion, Gree Electric, Qingdao Haier, Midea Electric, Suning Appliance, Yunnan Baiyao, Changyu, ZTE, etc. In fact, this company is also a well-known leading enterprise in the industry (if viewed from the industry alone, it is also a blue chip in its respective industries).
blue chip stock
Blue chip with excellent performance is a word derived from blue chip by comparison. It is a company stock with excellent performance, rich dividends and steady growth, which has been recognized in the industry. And "excellent performance" refers to the selection of excellent stocks from the perspective of performance ranking.
Blue chip market
Blue chip refers to a listed company with large share capital and market value, but not all large-cap stocks can be called blue chips, so it is difficult to set an exact standard for blue chips. From the experience of various countries, those companies with large market value, stable performance, leading industry and considerable influence on their own securities markets, such as Changjiang Industry and Hutchison Whampoa; IBM is in America; Lloyd, England, etc. In order to bear the reputation of "blue chip". Blue chips are the ones with large market value. There are also some blue chips in China, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petroleum and China Petrochemical.
I steel industry: revaluation of performance growth value
China steel stocks represented by Baosteel deserve reasonable market pricing. In view of the high discount rate or risk premium, the listed value of major steel products is obviously underestimated. As the upstream and downstream of an industrial chain, it is impossible to have a valuation "depression" forever, and the price-earnings ratio of steel stocks reaches 15 times, which is the international level.
Key steel stocks with P/E ratio less than 20 times: baoshan iron & steel, Angang and Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. ..
Second, the port industry: the main line of investment: low valuation+asset injection
Although the sector valuation has been put in place, there are obvious differences in the valuation of individual stocks in the sector. The valuations of Shanghai Port, Nanjing Port and Chongqing Port are more than twice as high as those of Yingkou Port, Shenchiwan Port and Yantian Port. With the industry valuation in place, security is an important factor that we should consider when giving the investment strategy in 2007. At the same time, in the market environment of 20% growth rate of the whole industry, we can have more port resources and occupy a more active market position in the future market competition, so companies that may acquire assets are also our concern.
Key port stocks with P/E ratio less than 20 times: Yantian Port, Shenchiwan Port and Yingkou Port.
Third, the coal industry: opportunities brought about by the expansion
As far as the choice of investment targets is concerned, it is suggested to give priority to investing in enterprises with core competitiveness and pay more attention to the "bottom-up" strategy. The logical main line is: the price remains high-the increase in production capacity can be fully released-the transportation is loose-and the enterprises with little cost impact are the most worthy of investment. It is predicted that asset value injection and overall listing will be important investment themes and opportunities for the whole coal industry in 2007-08.
Key coal stocks with P/E ratio less than 20 times: Orchid Technology, Xishan Coal and Electricity, kailuan shares, Yangguo Xinneng, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, Jinniu Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Lu 'an Huaneng, Pingmei Tianan and Shenhuo.
Fourth, the highway industry: long-term steady growth pays attention to value revaluation.
In 2007 and for a long time to come, China's expressway industry will maintain a steady growth trend. The sustained and steady growth of the national economy, the network effect brought by the gradual improvement of road network construction, the drop in oil prices and the increase in traffic volume brought by overseas investment have all created a good external environment and opportunities for the stable development of the whole industry.
Key expressway stocks with P/E ratio less than 20 times: Jiangxi-Guangdong Expressway, Wantong Expressway, Zhongyuan Expressway and Hyundai Investment.
4 Investment value
Because quantitative investment needs extremely complex model calculus and information support, fundamental analysis has become the main method for ordinary investors to share the growth of the stock market.
Fundamental analysis is usually divided into growth investment and value investment. The focus of growth investment is to predict and find listed companies that can achieve explosive growth in the next 5- 10 years, and invest in the early stage of enterprise growth. This model has high investment risk, great income, huge time cost and opportunity cost, and is suitable for professional investors. The focus of value investment is to track the outstanding performance of industry leaders, invest when their share prices are undervalued, and share the steady growth of company performance and dividend income, which is suitable for investors. Among them, blue-chip investment is the main way to realize the value investment law.
5 China
20 12 In May, the head of the CSRC said: "Advocating blue-chip stocks is essentially advocating the concept of rational investment and value investment. Poor performance stocks are more uncertain, and only experienced investors are suitable for risky investment choices. " China blue chip is the real value of the stock market, mainly considering the following aspects:
First, from the characteristics of blue-chip stocks, first of all, blue-chip companies have a long history, high reputation and good credit, strong product competitiveness, relatively stable profitability, and can better resist cyclical fluctuations, while the dividend policy is stable and the dividend yield is high; Secondly, blue-chip stocks represent the changing direction of economic structure and industrial structure, and grasp the pulse of the times. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is the oldest blue chip in the global stock market, and the structural changes of its index components reflect the overall changes of the American economic structure; Finally, the characteristics of large market value and large circulation of blue-chip companies make their stock trading relatively difficult to be manipulated.
Secondly, in terms of performance, by the end of April of 20 12, all 938 listed companies in Shanghai had disclosed the 20 1 1 annual report, of which the total assets and net assets of 20 180 index stocks accounted for 93.3% of the total number of listed companies in Shanghai. 20 1 1 * *, operating income133539.7108 million yuan, net profit 1465008 million yuan, accounting for 74.9% and 89.2% of the total operating income and net profit of all listed companies respectively. Not only is the performance higher than the average level of Shanghai stock market, but the performance growth rate is still higher than the overall level of Shanghai stock market under the general environment of 20 1 1 overall economic slowdown.
Third, from the dividend situation, among the constituent stocks of SSE 180 index, * * 145 listed companies announced profit distribution plans, among which 143 companies made cash dividends, and the total cash to be distributed was 408.626 billion yuan, accounting for 20 180 constituent stocks. Among them, there are six companies whose cash dividend of 20 1 1 exceeds 10 billion yuan, namely Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, China Petroleum and China Petrochemical, accounting for 34%, 35%, 23% and 40% of their net profit respectively. Stable dividends provide similar income characteristics to bonds and can provide investors with relatively stable cash flow.
Fourthly, from the perspective of corporate governance, taking the constituent stocks of Shanghai Stock Exchange 180 index as an example, most listed companies have performed well in corporate governance and standardized operation. Excellent and honest management team and standardized company operation are the cornerstones to realize the sustained, stable and rapid development of the company and maximize shareholder value.
Theme stocks are subject-oriented, such as Olympic-related stocks during the Olympic Games. Theme stocks are stocks with good news such as restructuring, private placement and overall listing.
6 law
According to the research, the Japanese bull market showed the following laws in the1980s:
Before February 1987: Assets industries with revaluation, such as power and natural gas, real estate, banking and securities; 1February 1987 to1February 1988: cyclical industries driven by external demand, such as papermaking, steel, transportation equipment and machinery; After 1989: consumer service industries that focus on domestic demand, such as mining, construction, metal products, information services, commerce and trade, and technology stocks.
The basic theme of this round of movement is the trade surplus, inflation and the reduction of domestic demand brought about by the appreciation of the yen. Its essence is the change of economic structure, that is to say, the above liquidity is transmitted to the real economy. It is worth noting that the cross-industry between the real economy and the virtual economy is always strengthened repeatedly. For example, the trend of real estate basically overlaps with Nikkei 225. We find that there is a strong positive correlation between the real estate trend in the global market and the stock market trend, but they are not synchronized; The fluctuation of house price trend is relatively small compared with the stock market.
There are also three steps in asset revaluation. In 2006, commercial real estate and resource assets were the focus of mining, and the market was in full swing. At present, the most dazzling financial assets that have been excavated are listed or planned to be listed, mainly banks, insurance and brokerages; In the future, there will be a concept of cross-shareholding with greater scale effect, which is currently being explored. One branch of this concept is the indiscriminate bombing of the concept of venture capital.
The third step, asset revaluation, greatly amplified the bubble and supported the performance growth of some "pseudo-blue chips". It has been pointed out that equity investment will affect the 30% growth of listed companies in 2008, so we'd better be alert to the blue chip of equity investment.
After asset revaluation, the blue-chip differentiation is extremely serious, and the blue-chip game will swing to cyclical industries. Investors are very wary of cyclical companies, which often makes the stock price of cyclical companies far below its due value. However, the role of economic laws is unstoppable. A report by changjiang securities (19. 1 1, -0.04, -0.2 1%, right) shows that after 1987, a large amount of funds flowed into the real economy, and the blue chip performance rose, the most surprising of which was in the Japanese bull market. American stock market statistics also reached the same conclusion. After 1989, the performance of cyclical stocks weakened, and the performance of other stocks could be maintained, such as technology stocks and consumer stocks. The power of funds to promote the stock market is getting smaller and smaller, and funds are beginning to turn to some small-cap and growth stocks.
7 how to choose
Generally speaking, people think that "blue chips" are the first-class and best stocks, but not necessarily. The definition of blue chip on the website of American Stock Exchange is: the so-called blue chip refers to the stock of an enterprise that has won the national reputation by the quality of its products or services and the profitability and profitability reliability beyond the economic boom. It sounds circuitous, but we can find several key words from it: well-known big companies, stable profit records, dividend growth, management quality and product quality. There is a vague concept. In fact, there is no only accurate definition of blue chip. It exists in some indexes, securities analysts' reports and some consumers' minds.
The stocks of big companies are not necessarily blue chips, but blue chips must be the stocks of big companies.
As far as the market value is concerned, in February 2004, the total market value of 30 companies in the Dow exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, and the average market value exceeded 1000 billion US dollars, almost equivalent to the GDP of a medium-sized country like Finland in one year. As far as assets are concerned, companies such as Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, GE and General Motors reach hundreds of billions of dollars, while Citigroup reaches 1 trillion dollars or more; As far as operating income is concerned, the sales income of Dow 30 Company in 2002 was about10.8 trillion US dollars, exceeding the GDP of China in the same year10.25 trillion. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that blue-chip companies are as rich as enemies.
The stocks of companies in the pillar industries of the national economy are not necessarily blue chips, but the marginal industries will certainly not be born with blue chips.
The understanding of blue-chip stocks can not be limited to the word "shares", which carries "industrial livelihood" and even "national glory and dreams". Therefore, all blue chips generally appear in the pillar industries of the country, and blue chip companies are also leading enterprises in the industry.
Some companies operate well and have excellent performance, such as "Commodity City", but from the perspective of their industry attributes, they are definitely not blue chips. Listed companies such as Baosteel and Air China are in the pillar industries of the national economy and people's livelihood such as steel and aerospace, and have the characteristics of blue-chip companies. In particular, China is still in the primary stage of industrialization, so blue chips are more likely to be born in manufacturing. In terms of retail or catering services, blue-chip companies such as Wal-Mart and McDonald's can be found abroad, but it is difficult to find them in China.
Blue-chip companies must also play the role of industry leader, which is the backbone and leading force of industrial value chain and industrial supporting division of labor system. Not only in scale, but also in technical level and management level, it is a representative of this industry. For example, Baosteel has a considerable weight in the price negotiation of raw material iron ore. And its plate products will also become a standard in this industry.
Blue chip companies, such as Enron in the United States.
8 identification method
Small-cap stocks are not blue-chip stocks
Generally speaking, small-cap stocks are not blue-chip stocks. Because small-cap stocks are often controlled by a few investors, commonly known as "bookmakers", and the circulation and market value of blue-chip stocks are large, ordinary investors can also actively participate, which makes it difficult for "bookmakers" to manipulate such stocks in the market, so they are highly liquid and not self-employed.
Blue chips are not blue chips.
After 1996 and 1997, the most chilling variety for investors is blue chips. Hubei Xinghua fell, Sichuan Changhong nodded and could not cut, and the stock price halved. But blue chips are not necessarily blue chips, and excellent performance reflects history; Blue-chip stocks should not only look back on history: their performance should not be too bad, and they should be above average (the following screening limit is 0.20 yuan/share), but also look forward to the future. Without the steady growth of future performance, raising the stock price will become a tall building on the beach and will eventually collapse. Therefore, growth is unforgettable.
Are the shares of big companies blue chips?
The stocks of big companies are not necessarily blue chips, but blue chips must be the stocks of big companies. A big company is not necessarily a good company, but a large scale is a necessary condition for becoming a blue-chip company. Blue-chip companies have long been concerned and favored by bulk capital and mainstream capital in the capital market. Measured by asset scale, operating income and market value of the company, the scale of the enterprise is huge.
Blue-chip stocks are not assets reorganization stocks.
It is a general rule that assets are reorganized and the company's performance is greatly improved. But this growth is not another kind of growth. The growth of blue-chip stocks is reflected in the profit growth of the company's superior resources on the basis of superior management.
After a company reorganizes its assets, we should admit that this is the birth of a new economic entity. Its growth is also reflected in the establishment of new entities, rather than the transformation between old and new entities.
Blue chips will not be diversified companies.
A diversified company, especially a diversified hodgepodge, will inevitably lead to the company's inability to go all out in every field. "All-round development equals all-round mediocrity." Blue-chip stocks reflect the development of the whole macro-economy and the basic characteristics of all walks of life, so both technology and pricing must have a large scale of operation and play an important role in the industry. Such a company is destined to be specialized, not diversified, at least not horizontally diversified.